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    UBS ETF MSCI PACIFIC SRI

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    UBS ETF MSCI PACIFIC SRI

  • 14 May 19

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Capitalising on more favourable terms

Duke has agreed modifications to the terms of three royalty agreements from the Capital Step acquisition. The effect is to unlock a minimum of £3.7m in additional revenues over the next 5 years. As a result, Capital Step's future revenue is expected to increase by 25%+ at no additional cost. This realises a key synergy from the Capital Step deal.

Companies: Duke Royalty
  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 03 May 19

Burford Capital - Time to Top Up

We believe recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to enter the market leading litigation funder at an attractive valuation. Current market concerns surrounding an overstated ROIC and aggressive fair value accounting are unfounded, in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and 2,300p price target.

Companies: Burford Capital
  • 22 May 19

Settlement news flow, attractive returns

We believe the settlement in principle of a litigation project that was announced on 20 March 2019 will likely be confirmed on Monday 27 May, providing further positive news flow for the shares and demonstrating the attractive returns available if the right cases are selected.

Companies: Litigation Capital Management
  • 28 Mar 19

Litigation, litigation, litigation

Within this note we look to build upon our existing legal sector coverage of Anexo*, Gordon Dadds*, Gateley, Knights, Keystone, Rosenblatt and NAHL to include the litigation funders Burford Capital, Manolete Partners and Litigation Capital Management.

Companies: ANX BUR IMF JIL LIT MANO RBGP

  • 22 May 19

LIBERUM: U+I* - Challenging backdrop limits gains

U+I’s full year results were below our forecast, with £42.8m of development and trading gains just below the group's £45-50m target. A valuation decline in the investment portfolio further weighed on returns with NAV -4% to 289p and 4% below our forecast.

Companies: U&I Group
  • 15 May 19

Great start to the year

Be Heard has issued a positive AGM trading update for Q1 citing good YoY revenue and EBITDA growth. Both results are ahead of budget. The strong start, business wins, pipeline strength and activity levels have made the Company more confident of its overall 2019 performance outlook. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that in summary the Company is confident about achieving a satisfactory result in 2019 but one that is “comfortably in line with expectations”. Investment, consistent with meeting EBITDA expectations, has been raised and should help build on momentum. From our perspective it is very encouraging to see the turnaround of Be Heard by new management delivering a thriving business that can capitalise on its potential through the strength of its offer.

Companies: Be Heard Group
  • 15 May 19

FY 2019 results - EBITDA doubled to £1.48m

Tavistock Investments Plc (“Tavistock”) has released solid results for the full year ended March 2019. Despite challenging financial markets in the period, Funds Under Management (“FUM”) grew by 9% during the year and this was the main driver behind an impressive increase in underlying EBITDA by 101% to £1.48m. With several new strategic partnerships and initiatives in place, combined with wider industry drivers, we expect continued growth over the coming years. We leave our underlying EBITDA forecasts essentially unchanged which assume +35% growth in EBITDA in the year to March 2020 and +71% EBITDA growth the following year as economies of scale begin to have a greater impact.

Companies: Tavistock Investments
  • 15 May 19

Palace Capital - Earnings deferred to unlock potential

Palace Capital (PCA) has confirmed that FY19 independent property valuations are marginally up on the prior year, although adjusted earnings will be lower than previously expected. This is due to the deferral of some near-term lettings, as part of its asset management-driven total return strategy. Management has reiterated its commitment to the current level of dividends, expecting these and other asset management initiatives, including the flagship Hudson Quarter development in York, to deliver future income and capital growth.

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 22 May 19

LIBERUM: Shaftesbury* - Quality streets

First half results confirmed another period of good rental growth, supporting earnings growth on stable capital values. Occupier demand and tenant trading remains good.

Companies: Shaftesbury
  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 15 May 19

Encouraging AGM statement

Be Heard has released an encouraging AGM statement for Q1 indicating that revenues and EBITDA are both ahead of budget and last year, which underpins performance for the balance of 2019. The five partner companies are performing well and in line with expectations and we retain our FY19 PBT/EPS estimates for £3.1m/0.21p. At the FY18 results in March the group indicated that MMT Digital and Freemavens continue to demonstrate robust growth while the other businesses are stable and performing in line with management's expectations. The group has enjoyed a positive start to the year for new business, with notable account wins including the Chartered Institute of Taxation, Batiste and Drinkaware, while the pipeline remains 'robust'. At the FY18 results the group detailed its focus on operational effectiveness, profitability and cash generation in addition to the migration of earnout payments in 2019 to three-year loan notes to provide breathing space. We retain our view that the shares are materially undervalued on a SOTP basis given the undoubted strength of three of the group's businesses and stabilisation in the remaining two. We believe that as confidence in the group's balance sheet recovers, value will rebuild for equity shareholders.

Companies: Be Heard Group
  • 14 May 19

Understanding the deepest discounts

At Hardman and Co, we try to answer the questions of why to invest in a company and what the risks are in doing so. For many investors, simply having a deep discount to NAV is a good enough answer to the first question. However, investors need to appreciate the risks and, in particular, the reasons why the shares are at a discount. Having understood those risks, investors need to be convinced that there is a catalyst for change on the part of the manager and how long (if at all) it will take for market sentiment to reflect this in a lower discount. In this report, we examine the companies with the largest discounts and review those very issues.

Companies: ADAM BC12 BGHL CGI HAN JZCP LMS MPO MVI MHN NSI NAS OCI PSHD RSE SIHL TFG TPOU UTL VIN ELTA ELX

  • 20 May 19

Model updates post interims; maintain Buy

We update our numbers post the group’s interims last month to account for i) presentation of Saracen disposal as a discontinued op. in FY19, ii) increased finance charges of £0.1m annualised from the debt facility extension, and iii) the decision to operate Ipswich as a freehold store (previously intended to be a managed). Our forecast changes are presented below. We remain buyers of LOK, seeing moderate upside relative to peers in the context of sound market fundamentals underpinning the UK self-storage market.

Companies: Lok'n Store Group
  • 21 May 19

LIBERUM: Shaftesbury* - Good income growth on resilient capital values

First half results confirm good income growth on stable capital values. H1 NAV was flat at 995p in line with our forecast, with rental value growth in the wholly owned portfolio diluted by valuation weakness in the Longmartin JV.

Companies: Shaftesbury