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    UBS ETF MSCI PACIFIC SRI

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    UBS ETF MSCI PACIFIC SRI

  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Plus500* - Making the most of the opportunity

The record 1Q20 performance is due to more than just favourable market conditions. It also reflects the benefits of the group’s best-in-class platform, which continues to deliver despite lower leverage limits. Its scalable technology and agile marketing algorithms has enabled it to add 83k new users during the period, at less than half our forecasted AUAC. This dynamic, combined with the quality of these users, sees us upgrade FY20 PBT by 26% and positions the group to continue to deliver profitable growth in the medium-term. Despite this the shares trade on just 9.0x CY21 earnings, and as a result we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 1500p (from 1450p).

Companies: Plus500
  • 07 Apr 20
The Promised Land

Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).

Companies: WJG BKG CSP CRST MCS INL BDEV RDW GLE SPR TW/ PSN VTY GLV CRN ABBY BWY

  • 09 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Premier Miton Group* - AuM in-line with forecasts, integration on track

Premier Miton has released a trading update for H1’20. AuM was £9.1bn at the end of March, as expected, with net outflows running at 1%. The integration remains on track and the increased diversification within the business bodes well for future performance. Whilst difficult to know the exact impact of COVID-19 on the group’s financials, we are encouraged to hear of the robust operational performance, and the initial steps taken by management to protect profitability. On this basis we leave our estimates unchanged and see the shares as trading on just 9.2x CY20 P/E. In our view, this valuation is made more attractive by the company’s commitment to pay a dividend, with an updated dividend payout policy of between 50-65%, again in line with our expectations. We reiterate our DCF based target price of 152p and BUY rating.

Companies: Premier Miton Group
  • 09 Apr 20
S&U - Update Note - Preliminary Results

S&U released its preliminary FY20 results yesterday morning, which demonstrate considerable resilience against a backdrop of election and Brexit turbulence and weakening consumer demand - although that already feels like ancient history.

Companies: S&U
  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Real Estate Investors* - Diversified in the face of uncertainty

RLE’s trading update confirms a strong relative performance considering current market conditions. Importantly, the Q4 19 dividend is still being paid. The portfolio is benefitting from income diversity, with 38% Office-related and an additional 24% representing key worker/essential services. The balance sheet is healthy, with £8.4m cash before drawing on facilities, or further disposals. We lower forecasts (FY20 NAV -4%) to reflect the fact no one is left unscathed, but think RLE will emerge from the crisis into a tailwind of structural opportunity (HS2 etc). The shares trade on a 43% discount to our lowered NAV and imply a c. 25% fall in underlying property values, which seems too steep. BUY.

Companies: Real Estate Investors
  • 30 Mar 20
Swift action enables us to look through a lost year

Belvoir’s FY 2019 results were strong, with adj. EPS up 13% (13.6p vs our forecast 13.0p) and strong cash generation. COVID-19 will affect property sales in FY 2020 but lettings (61% of 2019 gross profit) will be more resilient, helped by the Government’s measures to support employment and incomes. Management has reacted quickly, reducing costs and putting plans in place to support franchisees. We now forecast a ‘lost year’ in FY 2020, assuming five months of no sales activity, a significant reduction in financial services and a reduction in lettings fees, partly offset by a £1.5m cost reduction. The capital light franchise model, inherent high levels of cash generation and no final dividend for 2019 mean we forecast gross cash of £2.0m at December 2020, down from £3.6m. Belvoir is in good financial shape to weather the storm and support its franchisees before returning to normal activity. The success of the strategy was again evidenced by a strong start to 2020 prior to COVID-19.

Companies: Belvoir Lettings
  • 01 Apr 20
A seismic shift in the way we live and work

The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.

Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO

  • 03 Apr 20
Numis Corporation - Sound H120 and opportunity post Covid 19

Numis expects to report H120 revenues c 10% higher than in H119 with revenue from investment banking slightly down and equities ahead on the back of increased market volatility. Given the impact of the pandemic we have provided indicative scenarios rather than a point estimate for FY20. Numis is strongly capitalised and has net cash of over £84m. Looking beyond the current dislocation, it is well positioned to serve its corporate client base in a period in which the need for fresh equity and a revival in corporate transactions could drive a sharp recovery in activity.

Companies: Numis Corporation
  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Alpha FX* - £20m additional growth capital

We highlighted last week the Company had sufficient capital to hit our revised forecasts and retained a business model, technology platform and client proposition to continue to take share. Since then the company has agreed a payment plan with its largest client and today have announced a £20m fund raise which further supports the capital base in servicing existing clients and importantly positions them to win new ones as competing banks and brokers face their own challenges. No change in profit forecasts. BUY. Target Price 935p.

Companies: Alpha Fx Group
  • 02 Apr 20
Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd -- Assessing the impact across the portfolio

The scaling of Duke's royalty portfolio was progressing as expected up to March 2020, with record cash receipts that month. Due to Covid-19 and the UK's economic shutdown, macro conditions have worsened and become highly uncertain. This is likely to see some royalty partners' future cash royalties decline, which in turn, will negatively impact FV's in the FY20E results. Duke's high margin and cash generative nature ensures it is well placed to trade through these challenges. Given the degree of uncertainty in outlook, we remove forecasts and put our recommendation Under Review and await further clarity on the portfolio.

Companies: Duke Royalty
  • 01 Apr 20
THE MONTHLY April 2020


Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL GDR HAYD PCA PIN PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SHED VTA

  • 06 Apr 20
Trading update and COVID-related dividend cut

FY20 results are due to be reported in June. PCA’s 2 April trading update stated FY20 results to be broadly in line with previous estimates. Loan-to-value (LTV) at 30 September 2019 stood at 34%; we expect this to increase to 37% as at March yearend, allowing for the drawdown at the York Hudson Quarter (HQ) development. With robust finances, PCA can weather COVID-related storms, including passing this quarter's dividend. A rent shortfall in FY21 looks likely. None of the diverse positive characteristics of the portfolio are negated. Indeed, we see scope for EPRA earnings to recover to the 19p per share historical dividend level once the HQ development has completed and funds have been redeployed into income-accretive acquisitions.

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 08 Apr 20
£56m new equity already deployed, limited impact from COVID-19

In a positive post-year end update, ULR has deployed £56m of the £136m equity raised in March 2020, acquiring a portfolio (6 assets), two single assets and a development land opportunity - all with solid 5%+ NIYs. Additional opportunities remain under consideration. 93% of all June quarter rents have already been collected. All but 4 assets remain fully operational as a result of the COVID-19 restrictions. We see continuing rental reversion opportunities in the medium term, and a continuing demand for these regional logistics assets as e-commerce and e-fulfilment continues to evolve in the UK.

Companies: Urban Logistics REIT
  • 08 Apr 20
Palace Capital - Adjusting to COVID-19

Palace Capital (PCA) has provided an update on the impact of COVID-19 and its response to the crisis, including a focus on rent collections and maintaining a healthy liquidity position until the full impact becomes clearer. Payment of the previously declared Q320 DPS has been cancelled but progress continues at the flagship Hudson Quarter development, albeit at a slower pace.

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 04 Mar 20
Resilient business model

L&G released operating profit from continuing divisions of £2,514m, up 17% yoy. All business units posted an upward trend in earnings. The profit excludes the mortality release of £155m and the Mature Savings and General Insurance businesses (£11m). Net profit stood at £1,834m. The proposed dividend is 12.64p/share, bringing the annual dividend to 17.57p. The Solvency II ratio stood at 184%. We keep our positive opinion on L&G, the business model of which allows it to benefit from increasing numbers of deaths.

Companies: Legal & General Group