Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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NORMA GROUP SE
NORMA GROUP SE
25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks
We have refreshed our momentum screen for a second time, the previous refresh having been in January. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the strongest momentum, according to our measurement method. From these we selected 9 to focus on. Since the last refresh the screen has significantly outperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of strong and stable momentum generally. We also present here a wider study of accelerating and decelerating momentum stocks, because of interesting behaviour noticed previously. The interim conclusion is that these two characteristics are a significant differentiator of performance. We show on pages 7 and 8 the current most accelerative and decelerative stocks.
Companies: SDM EYE SOG MAB1 GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET
25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-05-2017
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Earnings enhancing acquisition | Conviviality (CVR LN) Raising a glass to a positive YE update | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Confidence in FX mitigations + staycation benefits | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) Successful launch of the UK’s maiden PRS REIT, raising £250m | Small-cap quantitative research Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks
Companies: HFD SGM SDM EYE SOG CLG MAB1 CVR GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET
24 May 17
Small Cap Breakfast
I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission. Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May. Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Flying Brands (FBDU.L)—Prospectus approved by FCA. RTO of Stone Checker Software, supplier of technology solutions in the field of kidney stone analysis and prevention. Has raised £550k at 3p. Subject to GM on 15 Jun. AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m. Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. Tufton Oceanic Assets– Extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable further due diligence. PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May
Companies: PYC CLTV HNL WAND TRAK OBT PSL ARL AGM
25 May 17
Trading remains good in the early part of the year
In its AGM statement released this morning, Headlam confirms that trading in the first four months of the year has started well and is in line with expectations for FY17. This builds on a good performance in FY16, which saw forecasts upgraded twice due to strong trading in the second half of the year. In the UK year to date, both residential and commercial sales were higher, despite challenging comparatives. Solid growth in Europe was driven by residential demand whilst the commercial sector was softer, held back by underperformance in the Swiss business. Headlam continues to act as a consolidator in its highly fragmented industry, announcing the acquisition of Scottish based McMillan Flooring Distributors. Our forecasts remain unchanged today but we are encouraged by the positive start made to FY17 trading. At current levels and following strong share price appreciation since December, Headlam trades on a PER of 15.6x with an attractive 3.7% dividend yield, before considering any further special dividends in FY17.
12 May 17
Results to the left of them, results to the right of them
We continue to see outperformance by the junior market indices. In our view, this is largely due to smaller companies delivering robust trading in updates, although M&A activity is also playing a part. Indeed, the majority of corporate results continue to be in line with expectations. The UK election rumbles on in the background and near term the focus will likely remain on the domestic political landscape. In Share News & Views we have covered Braemar Shipping*, Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust*, Invesco Growth Trust* and Warpaint London*.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX QRT SNX SPRP SQS TCN TRI W7L
25 May 17
We remain confident that the outlook for UK consumer markets supports our top-line assumption of 3% growth in FY17 and Headlam is tracking in line with our earnings forecasts in the year to date. Returns should be supported by the price inflationary environment and a fresh look at efficiencies in the business providing the prospect of firming gross margins. The group is committed to a progressive dividend policy including potential special dividends and the shares are yielding around 5.6% our FY17 dividend forecast inclusive of a forecast further special being declared in respect of FY17. This is a momentum stock with superior yield.
28 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - T3 Trend spotting - Strategy update
In our third edition of Trend spotting we stick with our suggestion at the end of March to up European exposure and we review the recent market moves and macro trends. We comment on the recent strong performance of our growth, quality and momentum styles which we expect to continue and we examine what happened to sectors around the last general election period in 2015, adding some new colour.
Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM FUM CLIN RENE ATQT SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN FUTR ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP MYSL
27 Mar 17
The Joy of Techs
Enterprise-focused niche applications of tech illustrate how, while trends appear to be fluctuating away from the current poster children of fintech and the Internet of Things, in fact these developments are refining appropriate application of existing technologies.
Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CFHL ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO
18 May 17
Small Cap Breakfast
I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission. | Opera Investments –Reverse Takeover of Kibo Mining’s subsidiary Kibo Gold. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt Cap £6.5m. 23 May. | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May. | AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property | Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe | ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. | Tufton Oceanic Assets– Extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable further due diligence. |PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May
Companies: STL HAL STAF CHH RENE DHG SFE FDBK EKT
19 Dec 16
Small Cap Breakfast
Ultimate Products—The Telegraph reports Jim McCarthy, former chief of Poundland has been appointed Chairman of Ultimate Products ahead of a £100m listing in H1 2017. Ultimate Products owns the Beldray cleaning brand and the licence to sell Russell Hobbs and Salter electrical products in the UK.
Companies: NWF HZM COS BAGR DGB TSTR SLE ATYM MLVN PPIX
28 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 28-04-2017
Bagir Group (BAGR LN) NED appointment and acquisition update | T3 Trend spotting Strategy update
Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM BAGR FUM CLIN RENE ATQT MYSL SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN FUTR ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP
21 Jun 16
The return of the goodwill IPO: How to value a brand?
I wake up in my DFS (DFS) bed with a Gin and Fevertree (FEVR) hangover, place a trade on my phone through CMC Markets (CMCX), have a quick go on my Hornby (HRN) train set, eat half a box of Hotel Chocolat (HOTC), all before heading out in my brand spanking new Joules (JOUL) wellies to my local Metro Bank (MTRO) branch. All of these well-known consumer brands share a common theme in that they are all listed or quoted on the London Stock Exchange. It’s been a year so far reminiscent of 2014 when we saw a flurry of large brands rush for the IPO door such as Pets at Home (PETS), Saga (SAGA), AA (AA) and Poundland (PLND). Most looking for a private equity exit. The IPO adventure of these companies tends to be fairly boiler plate: the valuation is a battleground between the exiting private equity house and incoming institutional investors, the book is many times covered and the scale backs are eye watering. But what makes these companies more alluring to investors than a company nobody has ever heard of which in fact may be profitable, dividend paying and ultimately, on a lower valuation?
Companies: CMCX CSP CYBG WJG ACRL ASCL
25 Apr 17
Surprisingly strong Q1 growth at Protective Films
Chargeurs SA has released a very strong set of figures for Q1 17 with lfl sales up 5.6% (excluding Luxury Materials, see table below) and pulled by the +10.2% of Protective Films, the key business of the firm.
Companies: CHARGEURS SA
16 May 17
Solid trading update & new facilities
Accrol has this morning released an encouraging trading update, essentially confirming that the company is continuing to trade in line with expectations and the strategy is progressing well. We are maintaining our forecast assumptions for now, despite a “less favorable macro-economic environment”. While the shares have performed well of late, we believe the valuation remains attractive given its growth potential and unique market positioning and believe the risk/reward profile remains positive from here.
17 May 17
"US equities demonstrated a lack of direction over the course of trading on Tuesday, having closed mostly higher the previous day. The two major averages spent the session fractionally either side of unchanged, leaving just the NASDAQ to put on an acceptable gain, chalking up a new record close with the technology sector being one of just two S&P-500 sectors to finish in the positive. Microsoft stood out with a 2% gain following Soros Fund Management's disclosure it had more than tripled its stake in the Group, which is seen to be a long-term beneficiary of the WannaCry ransomware attack. Elsewhere, however, the Washington Post's claim that Trump revealed highly classified information to Russian officials in a White House meeting last week unnerved investors from the start, even if his National Security Advisor, HR McMaster, considered the discussions to be "appropriate". The President allegedly asking then-FBI Director James Comey to drop a probe into his former NSC advisor, Michael Flynn, has prompted some congressional Republicans to call for further investigation which investors, in turn, consider to be sapping energy from the White House's principal mandate to overhaul healthcare and the tax system. Having been weak for the last five sessions, this political drama pushed the US$ to its lowest point against the international currency basket since November. Meanwhile, mix message were again are received on the economic front with housing starts and building permits unexpectedly seeing further downside in the month of April, while a separate report from the Federal Reserve produced a much bigger than expected increase in industrial production for the same period. Early strength in gold, semiconductor, and tobacco stocks largely dissipated, but modest weakness was still visible among healthcare and commercial real estate. A falling Dollar pressured stocks in Japan and cast broader concern over equity markets in the Asian region. Australia's ASX fell over 1% as the Prime Minister promoted the idea of a new levy on profits for the country's five largest banks while the principal Chinese markets finished modestly softer. London equities, by comparison, ended Tuesday in fine form, climbing for their eighth consecutive session to hit a new record all-time high and close the day above the 7,500 mark. Riding on the back of China's proposed US$900bn of infrastructural investment plan that stretches across 65 countries along the Silk Road, major commodity stocks were further boosted by continued Sterling weakness, while investors also increasingly anticipate the Tories securing a large majority in the UK forthcoming General Election with latest opinion polls putting Theresa May 20 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn. Consumer inflation rose much as expected in April, to 2.7% from 2.3% in March, its highest level since 2013, having been buoyed significantly by Sterling's Brexit related devaluation. Despite remaining well above the Bank of England's 2% target rate, Governor Carney appears reluctant to combat rising prices with a rate hike; combine that with the alarming squeeze on real wages and Sterling is set to remain relatively constrained, something that lends significant support for the internationally-weighted FTSE-100. The STOXX 600 ended another day unchanged, with the CAC 40 closing down 0.2%, while the DAX 30 in Frankfurt made a late recovery to end flat. UK macro data due for release this morning includes March's Claimant Count Rate, Average Earnings, ILO Unemployment along with Claimant Change numbers for April. The EU provides Consumer Prices for April plus Construction Output for March. The US is limited to its MBA Mortgage Applications and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change. UK Corporates due to publish earnings or trading updates, include British Land (BLND.L), SSE (SSE.L), Sophos (SOPH.L), Patisserie Holdings (CAKE.L), Countryside Properties (CSP.L), Mitchells & Butlers (MAB.L), Premier Oil (PMO.L) and Foxtons (FOXT.L). Uncertainty spreading from the US bodes for a cautious European opening this morning, with the FTSE-100 seen down 15 to 20 points in early trading."
Companies: AAU CYAN CRST EZJ SDY