Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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Root & branch review – early margin positive
23 Feb 17
Unilever (ULVR LN, HOLD, T/P 3800p) announced yesterday that it will publish the findings of a root and branch review in April 2017. This is stated as being a result of the recent approach made to them by KraftHeinz (KHC US, N/RO), an offer which quickly lapsed.
A compelling global brand roll-out story
22 Feb 17
We believe that SuperGroup remains one of the most undervalued global brand roll-out stories within the UK retail sector. The stock trades at c20% discount to its UK peers on a 1YF EV/EBITDA basis despite best-in-class revenue growth and profit margins. SuperGroup operates a leading multi-channel proposition, has strong sales momentum across each channel and forecast risk remains on the upside. We initiate coverage on the shares with a buy recommendation and price target of 1898p, implying upside of 27.8% over the prevailing market price.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Rolls out NGP, sees another good year of performlance at constant FX
23 Feb 17
FY update: sales are up +6.9% at constant FX (cons. +6.3%, Q4: +3.3%) and +12.6% at current FX (helped by weaker sterling). Group cigarette volume was up +0.2% (cons. +0.8%, Q4: -1.9%) with a 0.8% decline on an organic basis outperforming the industry, which was down by around 3%. Price mix was above 6%. Global Drive Brand (GDB) portfolio volume was up 7.5% with the market share increasing 100bp (GDB now accounts for 49% of the group’s cigarette volume). The operating profit was up +4.1% at constant FX, and the operating margin contracted by 90bp on reported figures on unfavourable transactional headwinds. The net profit is up 8.3%. The FY dividend is up +10% to 169.4p. For FY17, the group remains focused on the integration of Reynolds (deal expected to close during Q3). The company awaits another good year of growth at constant FX with profit growth skewed to H2.
High single digit EPS growth remains on track
17 Feb 17
BAT (BATS LN, HOLD, T/P 5300p) announce their preliminary 2016 results on Thursday 23rd February. We forecast revenue to increase 13% to £14.8bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus, and adjusted diluted EPS to continue its positive momentum to 249p (232p FY2015). Analyst consensus is 246p.