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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG. We currently have 28 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
Management hopes for a better 2017
21 Mar 17
BMW’s final 2016 accounts were, compared to what we had anticipated, slightly disappointing. We had said so when preliminary numbers were released earlier this month. Today’s guidance for 2017 shows slight growth in all categories, i.e. volume, revenue and consolidated pre-tax earnings are all projected to go up. Reading between the lines, the statement suggests that the EBIT margin generated by the Automobiles division is likely to fall further (it was down from 9.2% to 8.9% in 2016). Whether Financial Services can again increase its margin (it was up by 0.1pp to 8.4% last year) remains to be seen and will also depend on the price development of used vehicles.
Delivery growth has moderated further in February
10 Mar 17
The group delivered a total of 169,073 (+3.1%) cars in the last month which brought the ytd number to 332,369 (+4.9%). The split of the growth rates between BMW (+3.0% to 147,789) and Mini (+3.2% to 21,045) was pretty much similar in February and also ytd (+5.0% to 291,347 and +3.5% to 40,611).
2016 was good volume-wise, but not revenue- and profit-wise
09 Mar 17
BMW’s revenue and profit numbers have fallen in Q4. As a result, its full-year numbers came in below our expectations. The delivery volume was up by 5.3% to 2.37m vehicles while revenue increased by 2.2% to €94.2bn. The group released an operating profit of slightly less than €9.4bn (-2.2%) and net earnings of just above €6.9bn (+8.0%). We had expected an operating result €750m higher than the final one and net earnings of €7.26bn. Finally, management is proposing a dividend of €3.50 compared to last year’s €3.20 while we had foreseen €3.40. Final 2016 accounts will be released on 21 March.
Reasonable start to 2017
10 Feb 17
BMW delivered a total of 163,288 vehicles in January, of which 143,553 (+7.2%) BMW and 19,563 (+3.7%) Mini cars. Disproportionate volume growth was achieved in Asia (+12% to 66,719) and reasonable growth in Europe (+3.5% to 63,915). On the other hand, deliveries hardly changed in the Americas (+1% to 26,940). The group’s model 7 (+30% to 4,403) and X1 (+40% to 20,059) as well as the X5 (+23% to 14,739) were the driving forces behind the above growth rate. Simultaneously, the model 5, which is now being replaced, saw its volume falling by 14% to 22,144. Assuming the brand’s bread-and-butter models (e.g. 3, 5, X3, X5) will continue doing well or start recovering during the course of 2017, the group should be able to increase earnings further.
Volume growth has clearly moderated
10 Jan 17
The BMW Group achieved car volume growth of 6.2% to 1.75m through to September 2016 while the growth rate fell to 3.0% to 620,965 in Q4 although Q4 15 was rather weak (+2.5%). In fact, deliveries were up by only 0.8% to 215,188 in December which brought the full-year number to 2.37m (+5.3%). The respective numbers for the BMW brand were +1.2% to 178,849 and +5.2% to 2.00m and for the Mini brand -1.5% to 35,814 and +6.4% to 360,233. The regional break-down shows continuous but slower growth for Asia (+4.5% to 65,244 and +9.0% to 745,784) and Europe (+1.2% to 98,590 and +9.2% to 1.09m). On the other hand, the group has clearly lost market share in Nafta as deliveries fell by 2.3% to 46,109 in December and by 7.2% to 458,982 in the full-year. Consequently, the recent dollar strength has not helped the group to generate higher profits with cars imported into the US. In fact, the opposite might have happened. As the Spartanburg plant exports a large share of its production (of several X models) to other parts of the world, rising dollar costs have possibly burdened BMW’s earnings. Spartanburg produces about the same number of cars as the BMW brand sells in the USA.
To fight Uber, Daimler and BMW might merge their car-sharing operations
16 Dec 16
Car2go (Daimler) and Drive Now (BMW) might be merged into one company which, according to the media, allows both to fight Uber more successfully. Together they are believed to operate more than 20,000 cars worldwide, of which 2,500 electric cars and 6,000 in Germany. The German car-sharing market is believed to have a fleet of 7,000 cars, i.e. BMW and Daimler together have a market share of more than 80%. Uber is currently testing self-driving cars in the USA, but has experienced a backslash in California. As Uber has not applied for permission to test-drive these cars, Californian authorities have forbidden these cars with immediate effect.
24 Mar 17
We note the share transaction yesterday, and think the stock will benefit from the increased liquidity. We continue to believe there is good valuation upside to the shares. However, we are terminating coverage of Watkins Jones from this morning and withdrawing our forecasts from the market.
Outperformance in the bag
24 Mar 17
IG Design has had a very good second half trading and has issued a year-end update indicating that numbers will exceed market estimates. We have lifted our FY17 and FY18 numbers by 8-10% at the pre-tax and EPS levels, following an 11% uplift to earnings with the interims. Particularly notable is the comment on strong cash flow, with the group reaching its target of average leverage less than 2.5x EBITDA two years ahead of plan. With the earnings and cash flow momentum, strong balance sheet and progressive dividend, there is good potential for further share price upside.
Panmure Morning Note 20-03-2017
20 Mar 17
Today’s strong H1FY17 trading statement is encouraging on multiple levels; (1) H1FY17’s revenue growth of c.+23% to £32m indicates revenue growth running well above our forecast assumption of +15% for FY17 (August 2017); (2) the revenue growth continues to be broad-based across the two main brand groups (Focusrite and Novation) and all of TUNE’s global regions (USA, Europe, and RoW); (3) H1FY17’s constant currency revenue growth of c.+12% is a sequential acceleration from the c.+9.5% of H2FY16 and c.+5.5% of H1FY16; and (4) H1FY17’s net cash of £9.4m is well ahead of our forecast of £7.7m by August 2017, reflecting strong revenue/profit conversion combined with much improved w/c control. In short, we think there is excellent scope for our FY17 forecasts to be raised at the time of the H1FY17 results on May 3. We maintain our BUY.
20 Mar 17
Focusrite has positioned itself in a way that makes its shares a particularly attractive investment: leadership in a niche product area protected from general consumer swings; an international market structure that makes it relatively currency agnostic; a habit of profit over delivery; a strong and further strengthening balance sheet; and an undemanding valuation. This first half trading statement confirms every one of those points.