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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG. We currently have 24 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
Volume growth has clearly moderated
10 Jan 17
The BMW Group achieved car volume growth of 6.2% to 1.75m through to September 2016 while the growth rate fell to 3.0% to 620,965 in Q4 although Q4 15 was rather weak (+2.5%). In fact, deliveries were up by only 0.8% to 215,188 in December which brought the full-year number to 2.37m (+5.3%). The respective numbers for the BMW brand were +1.2% to 178,849 and +5.2% to 2.00m and for the Mini brand -1.5% to 35,814 and +6.4% to 360,233. The regional break-down shows continuous but slower growth for Asia (+4.5% to 65,244 and +9.0% to 745,784) and Europe (+1.2% to 98,590 and +9.2% to 1.09m). On the other hand, the group has clearly lost market share in Nafta as deliveries fell by 2.3% to 46,109 in December and by 7.2% to 458,982 in the full-year. Consequently, the recent dollar strength has not helped the group to generate higher profits with cars imported into the US. In fact, the opposite might have happened. As the Spartanburg plant exports a large share of its production (of several X models) to other parts of the world, rising dollar costs have possibly burdened BMW’s earnings. Spartanburg produces about the same number of cars as the BMW brand sells in the USA.
To fight Uber, Daimler and BMW might merge their car-sharing operations
16 Dec 16
Car2go (Daimler) and Drive Now (BMW) might be merged into one company which, according to the media, allows both to fight Uber more successfully. Together they are believed to operate more than 20,000 cars worldwide, of which 2,500 electric cars and 6,000 in Germany. The German car-sharing market is believed to have a fleet of 7,000 cars, i.e. BMW and Daimler together have a market share of more than 80%. Uber is currently testing self-driving cars in the USA, but has experienced a backslash in California. As Uber has not applied for permission to test-drive these cars, Californian authorities have forbidden these cars with immediate effect.
Strong growth in Europe and Asia, sharp fall in the Americas
12 Dec 16
The group’s deliveries increased by 6.2% to 209,743 in November which brought the ytd number to 2.15m, an increase of 5.8%. Deliveries of Mini cars (+7.9% to 31,593 and +7.4% to 324,417, respectively) continued to outperform those of BMW vehicles (+5.9% to 177,740 and +5.6% to 1.82m). BMW continued to benefit from disproportionate SUV growth, in particular the X1 (+74% to 22,595 in November). In addition, deliveries of the model 7 continued rising sharply (+70% to 6,883). As in the months before, deliveries to European clients continued rising strongly (+11% to 95,079) as did those to Asian clients (+15% to 69,520). On the other hand, deliveries to American clients continued falling (-14% to 39,051 in November and -7.7% to 412,873 ytd). Management blames the tough pricing competition in the US market as the reason for this poor development (-10% to 327,711 ytd). This suggests to us that management is reluctant to participate in this price war. Only what happens in the next months will reveal whether this is the sole reason or whether BMW has the wrong products for current US demand.
US$500m to be invested in start-ups by 2026
28 Nov 16
BMW started a venture capital fund in 2011 with an initial investment of $100m. This is now to be expanded to $500m within the next ten years. The fund, called ‘BMW i Ventures’, has been moved from NYC to Mountain View, CA, to have closer access to the technology developed in the Silicon Valley. The investment focus will be on Enabling Technology and Digital Vehicle Technology, Mobility and Digital Services, Customer Experience, and Advanced Production Technology. According to BMW, the fund has closed 15 deals in ‘mobility-related’ technologies so far. It typically acquires a minority stake in start-ups which allows it to gain access to external innovations (so-called ‘outside-in’) that secure the company’s role as a technology pioneer. Simultaneously, it provides support for start-ups by offering internal resources (so-called ‘inside-out’) such as technical expertise and access to its own network of an established car producer.
BMW delivery growth almost at a standstill in October
11 Nov 16
The brand increased deliveries by 1.1% to 166,805 in the last month which brought the ytd number to 1.65m, an increase of 5.5%. Simultaneously, Mini deliveries increased by 8.9% to 28,746 and 7.3% to 292,823, respectively. It is the American market that is causing the slow-down. Deliveries in this region were down by 12% to 36,743 in October and by 7.1% to 373,822 ytd. On the other hand, October deliveries continued rising in Europe (+6.4% to 90,574) and Asia (+6.6% to 63,006).
BMW delivered what we had expected
04 Nov 16
The growth rate of car deliveries accelerated to 7.1% (to 583,499 vehicles) in Q3, thus bringing the ytd number to 1.75m, an increase of 6.2%. Consolidated revenue growth also accelerated to 4.6% (€23.4bn) which brought the ytd number to €69.2bn, an increase of 3.0%. These numbers show that ASPs continued falling. The combination of both (i.e. higher sales volume with falling ASP) resulted in EBIT coming in almost flat in Q3 (+1.1% to €2.38bn) and in 9M (+2.2% to €7.56bn). As the ‘other financial result’ turned around from a loss to a profit in both periods while the tax rates were almost unchanged, net earnings were up by 15% to €1.82bn in Q3 and 12% to €5.41bn ytd. All these 9M numbers are some €100m higher than we had expected.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 19-01-2017
19 Jan 17
Actual Experience (ACT LN) 2017 – a milestone year for revenue | Bagir Group (BAGR LN) Independent NED appointment to strengthen Board composition | Bioquell (BQE LN) Reassuring pre-close statement | Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) Q4 dividend increased to 2.75c, 0.5c higher than forecast | FreeAgent (FREE LN) Contract with Royal Bank of Scotland | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Excellent Q3 update, special divi and confidence in FX mitigations | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Robust peak trading with reversal of drag from older titles | NCC Group (NCC LN) Interims confirm underlying business sound | St Ives (SIV LN) Downgrade | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Dr David Roblin appointed Chief Operating Officer and R&D President | Wilmington Group (WIL LN) Acquisition – Further scaling of Healthcare
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 10 focus stocks
12 Jan 17
We have refreshed our momentum style screen for the first time since inception on 26 July 2016. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme momentum characteristics, according to our measurement method. From these we have selected 10 to focus on. Since inception the screen has underperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of generally rising momentum. We have noted a subset of the basket, where decelerating momentum at the time of measurement appears correlated with significant share price falls since selection. We shall monitor this factor with the new screen, albeit there are only two such stocks showing this pattern, namely Lamprell (not rated) and Gear4music (not rated).
23% profit growth in FY16 and a positive outlook in FY17 and FY18
18 Jan 17
FY16 results show a strong performance with 9.3% increase in revenue to £267.0m leading to a 23% increase in profitability as adj PBT increased to £40.2m (FY15 £32.8m). The 220bp improvement in gross margin underpinned the increase in profitability as legacy low margin projects continued to fall out of the mix. The 20.2% gross margin was ahead of the 19.5% forecast and in line with Group’s target of generating a through the cycle 20% margin. The forward sale announcements of five developments since the year end provide an increasing level of visibility on both FY17 and FY18, we estimate c. 70% of FY17 gross profit is currently derived from forward sold projects. The announcement on Duncan Road Stratford means the forward sold pipeline is already building into FY19. Current valuation does not reflect the forecast certainty with the shares trading on 9.0x FY17 earnings and yielding a prospective 5.1%.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 16-01-2017
16 Jan 17
As the birthplace of Stephenson, Armstrong and Swan, the North East of England has a proud history of industrial and technological innovation. Despite local economic challenges, the region’s industrial heritage lives on through continuing success in high end engineering and technology. The recent takeovers of private equity backed SMD (subsea robotics) and Nomad Digital (wi-fi on the railways) are testament to this. The North East has also emerged as a leader in genetics and genomics with an enviable life sciences and healthcare infrastructure. Against this backdrop, we expect the region to continue to throw up attractive IPO candidates to build on the six new listings in the past three years. We expect 2017 to be far kinder to the existing portfolio of North East plcs than 2016 (a year to forget) with recent management changes one important theme for the new year. Our top picks are Hargreaves Services, Quantum Pharma and Zytronic (all N+1 Singer Corporate clients) and we are Buyers of Northgate and Grainger.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-01-2017
12 Jan 17
As anticipated, the second half has again been stronger than H1 and results will be broadly in line with expectations. In line with this, the order book has continued to grow and is at record levels. This confirms that significant progress has been made in the Group’s shift towards its Technology Products division which, as targeted, contributed c.60% of group revenue in FY16. The small acquisition of Cable Power also gives a complementary boost to the product range. It is also worth noting the significant reduction in net debt, £1.0m ahead of our forecast. We remain supportive of the Group’s strategy and continue to see a bright future as this transition towards a design led technology solutions business continues. We look forward to more detail in March at the final results.