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Safe as houses
17 Oct 16
Telford Homes is in as strong a position as it has ever been in the 15 years since flotation. The company has a strong balance sheet, with an expanded equity base and significant headroom on its banking facilities, a large development pipeline and impressive forward sales position, and good levels of demand for its product and geography from a diverse group of buyers.
Strong H1: Compounding smart decisions for l-term
18 Oct 16
Excellent H1FY17 results with strong current trading. EBITDA rose materially to £1.4m (6.3% EBITDA margin vs 1.7% in H1FY16) reflecting operational leverage on £21.6m revenues, up 73%. We raise our FY17 PBT and FY18 PBT by 21% and 6% respectively to £2m and £2.9m. The strong momentum continues which, combined with the virtuous circle of strategic re-investment into the e-commerce platform, the product range, and new capability/capacity, points to further scope for our upgraded but still conservatively framed estimates to be surpassed. Our new TP of 400p (vs 200p) is based on a EV/sales of 1.4x, still well below the 2.4x average of the UK e-commerce peer group, given that G4M is starting to unequivocally display many of the characteristics of its peer group (e.g. 3 year FY16-FY19e sales CAGR of +40%, leader in its chosen niche due to an attractive consumer proposition and highly defensible business model, profitable, well-funded and cash-generative).
UK Housebuilding Sector: Q3 2016 - “I am Steve McQueen”
11 Oct 16
Steve was street savvy, but he was not the smartest knife in the drawer, which makes his Delphic comment to Robert Vaughn all the more surprising. What Steve was saying is that “it’s not over yet”; that there is still a lot more to come (sadly for McQueen, who died in 1980 aged 50, it was a future that was not his). The same is true of Brexit and the collateral undulations that it has riven in the UK Housebuilding Sector. Immediately post-the-Brexit-vote, the UK Housebuilding Sector tanked 36% in value in two trading days (24 and 27 June with a weekend in between); and at one stage was off almost 40%.
AGM trading update
20 Oct 16
While current trading is a beneficiary of Sterling weakness, near-term FX volatility prevents us from upgrading our FY forecasts at this stage. In the event, however, that Euro and Yen exchange rates remain at current levels or lower, existing forecasts have considerable upside risk.
Conviction List Q4 2016
05 Oct 16
Since its inception in 2010, the Conviction List has outperformed the market in 13 of 18 periods and a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 255% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 130%. Our Conviction List returned 3.7% over the last quarter; this was set against the benchmark UK Small Companies index that returned 11.3% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our outlook for a temporary sweet spot for UK growth during the second half of 2016. The downside risk from the uncertainty of the EU Referendum result has been countered by stimulus from the Bank of England, signs of a looser fiscal stance and an 18% YoY reduction in the Sterling Exchange Rate. Compressed corporate fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities.
Consensus eps falling…falling…falling…rising 2.0
29 Apr 16
In January we screened for companies with estimates that had been declining consistently since a year previously, but which had risen in the immediately preceding three months (see our note dated 22 January 2016). We have reviewed the performance of those companies and, given the overall strength of this selection, we have re-run the screen. In the c.3 months since selection, the unweighted average rise was c.34% against a c.11% rise in the main All-Share index. From the same universe as before (some 900 companies) we find 38 companies selected by the screen. We note a number of stocks in the list where we have a supportive stance including: Devro (DVO LN, Buy), James Fisher (FSJ LN, Corporate), Mattioli Woods (MTW LN, Buy) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN, Buy).