Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on VOLKSWAGEN AG. We currently have 65 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
VW pleads guilty in the US but innocent in Europe?
11 Jan 17
According to management, the company is in the final stage of settling the fine payable to Federal US authorities. The latest indication is a number of $4.3bn. This amount seems to be acceptable to the authorities under the condition that VW pleads guilty for having used cheating software that allowed it to defraud both US consumers and US laws. Further State fines have to be expected. Simultaneously, US authorities seem to have found evidence that top management was not only informed about the cheating devices but urged employees not to admit this fact to US authorities. According to this, both former CEO Martin Winterkorn and current VW brand head Herbert Diess are accused, although the latter only joined VW in July 2015, i.e. well after the mess occurred. In our opinion, this will also involve Hans Dieter Pötsch, the former CFO and the current Chairman of the Supervisory Board.
Dieselgate fine of $3bn?
07 Jan 17
According to the media (Wall Street Journal and Reuters), the DoJ is willing to accept a fine of $3bn from VW. This comes on top of the c. $17bn compensation payments to US clients who had bought VW cars with diesel engines and faked software. It is unclear whether this upcoming fine only concerns 2L diesel engines or also 3L engines. It is also unclear whether additional fines have to be paid by Audi and Porsche or whether the $3bn fine concerns all of the group’s brands. In addition, several States might sue the group for destruction of the environment.
Dieselgate costs of €1.5bn in Canada
20 Dec 16
While VW has not yet reached a settlement in the USA for its 3L diesel engines, it has settled the dispute in Canada concerning 2L engines. The group needs to pay C$2.1bn (i.e. some €1.5bn) to Canadian clients plus a fine of C$15m. The Californian judge has given the company another day to come up with a final solution, i.e. the new deadline is today at 11am Pacific Standard Time.
VW brand delivered 7.5% more vehicles in November
18 Dec 16
The number reached 533,500 in the last month which brought the ytd number to 5.4m, an increase of 1.6%. Positive growth was achieved in China (+15% to 285,000), Nafta (+15% to 51,400) and Western Europe outside Germany (+7% to 71,800). Deliveries in Germany were down by 16% to 44,300 and in LatAm by 11% to 28,900. Management blames new leasing terms for employees for the setback in Germany. These leasing contracts now have longer maturities than before, i.e. employees are entitled to a new vehicle later than before. However, management does not indicate the size of the impact of this new car leasing scheme. The positive surprise was the excellent development in the USA (+24% to 29,700). We are certain that this was ‘bought’ at the expense of substantial discounts to clear the shelves before year-end.
The VW brand lives in a dream world
22 Nov 16
Today’s publication from VW talks about the world after 2025 when the brand will generate an EBIT margin of 6% in an environment where VW will be at the ‘Top of Volume’. This means the brand’s vehicles will be priced at the top of all volume producers close to the premium market segment. While sales prices are already ahead of other volume producers, they are still a far cry from the prices of premium brands. Its ASP is currently around €24,000 while Audi’s ASP is in the vicinity of €38,000. The strategic plan is divided into three steps: 1) Until 2020, the core business of the brand will be restructured and numerous new ‘conventional’ vehicles (primarily SUVs) will be introduced and the margin goal is 4%. 2) Until 2025, VW intends to become the world leader in electro mobility with a margin of 6%. Simultaneously, management is again dreaming of becoming the world leader of all volume car producers and a leader in mobility services (e.g. car sharing). 3) Management expects the car market to change dramatically after 2025. As the world market leader, it intends to be a driving force in those times.
Deliveries increased in October, thank you very much China
11 Nov 16
The VW brand increased deliveries by 4.4% to 511,500 passenger cars in the last month which brought the ytd number to 4.89m, an increase of 1.0%. Except for Central and Eastern Europe (+3.0% to 19,800) and APAC (+19.4% to 291,900), deliveries fell in all other regions in October. LatAm continued to be the worst market (-36% to 22,300) followed by Nafta (-9.8% to 46,400) and Europe (-7.0% to 132,400). The rate of decline has clearly accelerated in Europe, in particular in Germany. Management blames longer contracts for employee leasing contracts for the recent fall in Germany. But the rate of decline has also increased in Nafta and LatAm. The VW-Group saw its deliveries rising by 4.7% to 870,300 in October which brought the ytd number to 8.48m, an increase of 2.6%. Again, APAC was the driving force behind these growth rates (+16% to 390,300 in October and +9% to 3.50m ytd). However, the group continued to see positive growth in Europe (+0.9% to 338,000 and +3.3% to 3.52m, respectively), but, similar to the VW brand, falling deliveries in Nafta (-4.8% to 76,600 and -1.4% to 762,400) and LatAm (-33% to 29,600 and -28% to 349,600).
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 10 focus stocks
12 Jan 17
We have refreshed our momentum style screen for the first time since inception on 26 July 2016. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme momentum characteristics, according to our measurement method. From these we have selected 10 to focus on. Since inception the screen has underperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of generally rising momentum. We have noted a subset of the basket, where decelerating momentum at the time of measurement appears correlated with significant share price falls since selection. We shall monitor this factor with the new screen, albeit there are only two such stocks showing this pattern, namely Lamprell (not rated) and Gear4music (not rated).
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-01-2017
12 Jan 17
As anticipated, the second half has again been stronger than H1 and results will be broadly in line with expectations. In line with this, the order book has continued to grow and is at record levels. This confirms that significant progress has been made in the Group’s shift towards its Technology Products division which, as targeted, contributed c.60% of group revenue in FY16. The small acquisition of Cable Power also gives a complementary boost to the product range. It is also worth noting the significant reduction in net debt, £1.0m ahead of our forecast. We remain supportive of the Group’s strategy and continue to see a bright future as this transition towards a design led technology solutions business continues. We look forward to more detail in March at the final results.
Positive momentum on trading and cash
10 Jan 17
Trading for the four months to end December continued the positive trend of the first two to October. We understand that both constant currency trading and exchange rates have been favourable. Cash has also grown encouragingly, reflecting net receipts from the strong sales in late FY16 as well as early FY17. Recent softness in the shares represents excellent medium-term value for a niche market leader with positive growth.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.