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HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
Q3 exports at 57%
10 Nov 16
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at €191m (-20% yoy), above consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €124m (-25% yoy). Net production was 3.9mt (vs. 3.4mt in Q3 15). The benchmark margin was $3.9/bbl (vs. $6.4/bbl in Q4 15, during an exceptional year) and the additional margin was $4.4/bbl (Q3 15: $5.9/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA came in at €25m (-4% yoy); 3) Marketing: adjusted EBITDA at €44m (vs. €47m in Q3 15). The adjusted net income was €75m (vs. €111m in Q3 15), above expectations. Net debt stood at €1.8bn (vs. €2.4bn in Q3 15).
Q2 results in line
25 Aug 16
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was €156m (+20% yoy), in line with consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €105m (+37% yoy). Net production was 3.7mt (vs. 2.2mt in Q2 15, when the Aspropyrgos refinery underwent a shutdown). The benchmark margin stood at $4.2/bbl (vs. $5.5/bbl in Q2 15) and the additional margin was $4.4/bbl (Q2 15: $3.4/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (+12 yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €25m (vs. €27m in Q2 15). The adjusted net income was at €38m (-2% yoy), broadly in line. Net debt was at €1.7bn (vs. €1.1bn in Q2 15).
Q1 above consensus
11 May 16
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €169m (vs. €205m in Q1 15), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €137m (-21% yoy). Net production was flat yoy, at 3.5mt. The benchmark margin stood at $4.8/bbl (flat qoq; vs. $6.4/bbl in Q1 15) and the additional margin was at $5.4/bbl (Q1 15: $6.2/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (+29 yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €11m (vs. €14m in Q1 15). The adjusted net income came in at €70m (+30% yoy), beating consensus. Net debt was at €2.5bn (+20% yoy).
Domestic demand driven by heating; framework agreement with Iran
25 Feb 16
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €184m (+8% yoy), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA came in at €144m (+8% yoy). Net production rose by 3% yoy, to 3.7 mt. The benchmark margin was $4.8/bbl (vs. $4.0/bbl in Q4 14) and the additional margin was $4.7/bbl (Q4 14: $6.9/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (flat yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €17m (+15% yoy). The adjusted net income came in at €65m (+24% yoy), above consensus. Inventory losses (€148m in Q4 15) related to the fall in oil prices have led to an IFRS net loss of €60m. Net debt was at €1.1bn (flattish yoy). A $400m Eurobond should be paid in H1 16 through existing cash and credit lines and could come back to the financial markets later during the year.
Q3 results reach a record
13 Nov 15
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at €220m (+63% yoy), below consensus expectations but above ours. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €166m (+92% yoy). Net production rose by 3% yoy, to 3.4mt. The FCC margin averaged $7.3/bbl, at a high (flat qoq; Q3 14: $4.2/bbl), and Hydrocracking at $6.2/bbl (Q2 15: $5.8/bbl; Q3 14: $4.7/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €26m (+32% yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA was €47m (+15% yoy). Adjusted net income was €111m (€24m in Q3 14), slightly above consensus. Refineries were at full operation, capturing the strong refining margins. Net debt increased to €2.4bn (vs. €3.8bn in Q3 14) as the company deployed its own cash reserves.
Q2 results: back to full capacity to ride strong Q3 15 margins
27 Aug 15
Q2 15 results: adjusted EBITDA came in at €130m (vs. €49m in Q2 14), above consensus estimates of €122m. By division: 1) Refining production was affected by the shutdown following an accident (8 May, back to full availability on 25 June) at the Aspropyrgos refinery (2.2mt, -27% yoy), with utilisation at 63%. Exports were 1.2mt (-22% yoy). The €/$ rate was 1.11, the strongest dollar since 2003. The FCC margin averaged $7.3/bbl, a high (Q2 14: $2.6/bbl; Q1 15: $6.8/bbl), and Hydrocracking at $5.8/bbl (Q2 14: $3.1/bbl; Q1 15: $7.2/bbl), declining qoq due to the high supply of diesel; 2) Petrochemicals: adjusted EBITDA was €23m (+21% yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €28m (+26% yoy). Adjusted net income was €38m (-€53m in Q2 14). Net debt was €1.1bn (down from €1.6bn last year), with gearing at 38%.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Minor delay but lower cost and better visibility enhance the investment profile
13 Jan 17
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.