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HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
Q4 16 refining beats expectations
23 Feb 17
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €215m (+17% yoy), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €169m (+18% yoy). Net production was 3.7mt (flattish yoy) due to maintenance at Thessaloniki. The benchmark margin stood at $5.0/bbl (vs. $4.8/bbl in Q4 15) and the additional margin was $5.9/bbl (Q4 15: $4.7/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adjusted EBITDA came in at €25m (+1% yoy); 3) Marketing: adjusted EBITDA came in at €20m (vs. €17m in Q4 15). The adjusted net income was €82m (vs. €65m in Q4 15), above estimates. Net debt was €1.8bn (vs. €1.1bn in Q4 15 and flat from Q3 16).
Q3 exports at 57%
10 Nov 16
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at €191m (-20% yoy), above consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €124m (-25% yoy). Net production was 3.9mt (vs. 3.4mt in Q3 15). The benchmark margin was $3.9/bbl (vs. $6.4/bbl in Q4 15, during an exceptional year) and the additional margin was $4.4/bbl (Q3 15: $5.9/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA came in at €25m (-4% yoy); 3) Marketing: adjusted EBITDA at €44m (vs. €47m in Q3 15). The adjusted net income was €75m (vs. €111m in Q3 15), above expectations. Net debt stood at €1.8bn (vs. €2.4bn in Q3 15).
Q2 results in line
25 Aug 16
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was €156m (+20% yoy), in line with consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €105m (+37% yoy). Net production was 3.7mt (vs. 2.2mt in Q2 15, when the Aspropyrgos refinery underwent a shutdown). The benchmark margin stood at $4.2/bbl (vs. $5.5/bbl in Q2 15) and the additional margin was $4.4/bbl (Q2 15: $3.4/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (+12 yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €25m (vs. €27m in Q2 15). The adjusted net income was at €38m (-2% yoy), broadly in line. Net debt was at €1.7bn (vs. €1.1bn in Q2 15).
Q1 above consensus
11 May 16
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €169m (vs. €205m in Q1 15), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €137m (-21% yoy). Net production was flat yoy, at 3.5mt. The benchmark margin stood at $4.8/bbl (flat qoq; vs. $6.4/bbl in Q1 15) and the additional margin was at $5.4/bbl (Q1 15: $6.2/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (+29 yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €11m (vs. €14m in Q1 15). The adjusted net income came in at €70m (+30% yoy), beating consensus. Net debt was at €2.5bn (+20% yoy).
Domestic demand driven by heating; framework agreement with Iran
25 Feb 16
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €184m (+8% yoy), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA came in at €144m (+8% yoy). Net production rose by 3% yoy, to 3.7 mt. The benchmark margin was $4.8/bbl (vs. $4.0/bbl in Q4 14) and the additional margin was $4.7/bbl (Q4 14: $6.9/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (flat yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €17m (+15% yoy). The adjusted net income came in at €65m (+24% yoy), above consensus. Inventory losses (€148m in Q4 15) related to the fall in oil prices have led to an IFRS net loss of €60m. Net debt was at €1.1bn (flattish yoy). A $400m Eurobond should be paid in H1 16 through existing cash and credit lines and could come back to the financial markets later during the year.
Q3 results reach a record
13 Nov 15
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at €220m (+63% yoy), below consensus expectations but above ours. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €166m (+92% yoy). Net production rose by 3% yoy, to 3.4mt. The FCC margin averaged $7.3/bbl, at a high (flat qoq; Q3 14: $4.2/bbl), and Hydrocracking at $6.2/bbl (Q2 15: $5.8/bbl; Q3 14: $4.7/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €26m (+32% yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA was €47m (+15% yoy). Adjusted net income was €111m (€24m in Q3 14), slightly above consensus. Refineries were at full operation, capturing the strong refining margins. Net debt increased to €2.4bn (vs. €3.8bn in Q3 14) as the company deployed its own cash reserves.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Mar 17
Pacific Exploration & Production1,6 (PEN CN); BUY, C$72.00: 4Q16 results and improving outlook | Serinus Energy (SEN CN)1, 3; Speculative Buy, C$0.65: FY16 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): Final terms of a previously announced proposed capital restructuring | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): HOLD, £3.10: Right Issue at a discount & CNOOC exercises pre-emption rights in Uganda
The Momentum Continues - 2017 to be a Good Year
16 Mar 17
Welcome to IIR’s second “Blue Book” for Junior Resource Companies. This publication covers over 60 resource companies that were present at the 121 Group’s 2017 Cape Town Conference, held at Welgemeende in the Gardens district on February 6-7, 2016. The summaries in the book have been prepared with the assistance of the 121 Group based in London/ Hong Kong and Gavin Wendt from Minelife in Sydney, with the introduction being prepared by Mark Gordon and Gavin Wendt. The company information is accurate as at the time of the conference – and further information on the companies can be provided upon request.
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.