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HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
Q3 exports at 57%
10 Nov 16
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at €191m (-20% yoy), above consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €124m (-25% yoy). Net production was 3.9mt (vs. 3.4mt in Q3 15). The benchmark margin was $3.9/bbl (vs. $6.4/bbl in Q4 15, during an exceptional year) and the additional margin was $4.4/bbl (Q3 15: $5.9/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA came in at €25m (-4% yoy); 3) Marketing: adjusted EBITDA at €44m (vs. €47m in Q3 15). The adjusted net income was €75m (vs. €111m in Q3 15), above expectations. Net debt stood at €1.8bn (vs. €2.4bn in Q3 15).
Q2 results in line
25 Aug 16
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was €156m (+20% yoy), in line with consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €105m (+37% yoy). Net production was 3.7mt (vs. 2.2mt in Q2 15, when the Aspropyrgos refinery underwent a shutdown). The benchmark margin stood at $4.2/bbl (vs. $5.5/bbl in Q2 15) and the additional margin was $4.4/bbl (Q2 15: $3.4/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (+12 yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €25m (vs. €27m in Q2 15). The adjusted net income was at €38m (-2% yoy), broadly in line. Net debt was at €1.7bn (vs. €1.1bn in Q2 15).
Q1 above consensus
11 May 16
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €169m (vs. €205m in Q1 15), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €137m (-21% yoy). Net production was flat yoy, at 3.5mt. The benchmark margin stood at $4.8/bbl (flat qoq; vs. $6.4/bbl in Q1 15) and the additional margin was at $5.4/bbl (Q1 15: $6.2/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (+29 yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €11m (vs. €14m in Q1 15). The adjusted net income came in at €70m (+30% yoy), beating consensus. Net debt was at €2.5bn (+20% yoy).
Domestic demand driven by heating; framework agreement with Iran
25 Feb 16
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was €184m (+8% yoy), above consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA came in at €144m (+8% yoy). Net production rose by 3% yoy, to 3.7 mt. The benchmark margin was $4.8/bbl (vs. $4.0/bbl in Q4 14) and the additional margin was $4.7/bbl (Q4 14: $6.9/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €25m (flat yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €17m (+15% yoy). The adjusted net income came in at €65m (+24% yoy), above consensus. Inventory losses (€148m in Q4 15) related to the fall in oil prices have led to an IFRS net loss of €60m. Net debt was at €1.1bn (flattish yoy). A $400m Eurobond should be paid in H1 16 through existing cash and credit lines and could come back to the financial markets later during the year.
Q3 results reach a record
13 Nov 15
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at €220m (+63% yoy), below consensus expectations but above ours. By division: 1) Refining: EBITDA was €166m (+92% yoy). Net production rose by 3% yoy, to 3.4mt. The FCC margin averaged $7.3/bbl, at a high (flat qoq; Q3 14: $4.2/bbl), and Hydrocracking at $6.2/bbl (Q2 15: $5.8/bbl; Q3 14: $4.7/bbl); 2) Petrochemicals: adj. EBITDA was €26m (+32% yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA was €47m (+15% yoy). Adjusted net income was €111m (€24m in Q3 14), slightly above consensus. Refineries were at full operation, capturing the strong refining margins. Net debt increased to €2.4bn (vs. €3.8bn in Q3 14) as the company deployed its own cash reserves.
Q2 results: back to full capacity to ride strong Q3 15 margins
27 Aug 15
Q2 15 results: adjusted EBITDA came in at €130m (vs. €49m in Q2 14), above consensus estimates of €122m. By division: 1) Refining production was affected by the shutdown following an accident (8 May, back to full availability on 25 June) at the Aspropyrgos refinery (2.2mt, -27% yoy), with utilisation at 63%. Exports were 1.2mt (-22% yoy). The €/$ rate was 1.11, the strongest dollar since 2003. The FCC margin averaged $7.3/bbl, a high (Q2 14: $2.6/bbl; Q1 15: $6.8/bbl), and Hydrocracking at $5.8/bbl (Q2 14: $3.1/bbl; Q1 15: $7.2/bbl), declining qoq due to the high supply of diesel; 2) Petrochemicals: adjusted EBITDA was €23m (+21% yoy); 3) Marketing: adj. EBITDA at €28m (+26% yoy). Adjusted net income was €38m (-€53m in Q2 14). Net debt was €1.1bn (down from €1.6bn last year), with gearing at 38%.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
30 Nov 16
Gran Tierra (GTE CN)1, 6; BUY, C$5.50: Equity financing and acquisition of two blocks from Ecopetrol | Northern Petroleum (NOP LN)1; SPECUATIVE BUY, £0.15: Farm out and equity issue | President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): IFC Equity Subscription | Primeline Energy (PEH CN) (not covered): 2Q16 Results ended 30 September 2016 | Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)6 ; BUY, £1.20: Oda update in Norway | Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN)1 ; Under Review: Placing | SacOil (SAC LN/SCL SJ)1 : SPECULATIVE BUY, £0.016, Trading Update
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
Operating profits and net cash position – restored; market outlook – precarious
01 Dec 16
The turnaround was noticeable Lonmin’s full-year (September-ending) results were ahead of consensus and AV’s estimates. Sales came in at $1.1bn (-14% yoy) as the average realised (USD-denominated) PGM prices and sales volumes were down yoy 12% and 2%, respectively. However, platinum sales (736koz) were much ahead of earlier guidance (700koz) – thanks to certain smelting/processing efficiencies, which helped more than offset the impact of reorganisation-related disruptions. After two consecutive years (FY14-15) of hefty operating losses, Lonmin finally reported an adjusted operating profit (even though feeble) of $7m. This was facilitated by the record weakness in the South African rand (down from ZAR12/$ in FY15 to ZAR14.77/$ in FY16) and ZAR1.3bn of cost savings – 86% higher than the earlier target. Disappointingly, Lonmin recognised $335m of asset impairments (vs. $1.8bn in FY2015), which resulted in a full-year net loss of $400m. But the turnaround in reported OCFs – inflow of $58m vs. an outflow of $12m – was a much-needed improvement, which, along with conservative capex (-35% yoy) of $87m, resulted in a net cash position of $173m (with no short-term repayments) vs. a net debt position of $185m (at end-FY15). But the guidance spells caution For FY17, management targets conservative platinum sales of 650-680koz, while unit costs are expected to remain under pressure – ZAR10,800-11,300/oz vs. ZAR10,748/oz achieved in FY16. On the other hand, capex plans would be aggressive – ZAR1.8bn (which includes ZAR400m for the tailings project – already delayed by almost two years) vs. ZAR1.3bn spent in FY16.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.