FY 2016 Results
27 Sep 16
Indus has released its FY 2016 results, disclosing that the long awaited development plan for the entire block (outside the already producing SGL area) was submitted in February. Government approval is pending, but once this is received Indus can proceed with the first phase of development outside the SGL area, targeting an additional 200mmcf/d during 2019. Offtake is to be via a pipeline planned to connect up to the national gas pipeline network, and discussions for this are progressing with third parties. Further development on SGL is also planned, with supply of a further 27mmcf/d to GAIL now expected in January 2018. This progression of development across the block is all encouraging. The FY 2016 results themselves show strong OCF of US$57.2m, though fall short of our revenue and profit estimates on lower gas sales and pricing than we had forecast. We have adjusted our forecasts for lower revenues but also lower depreciation and interest, driving increased P&L profits overall. Going forward we look for further updates on progression of development on both the SGL area, and also the wider block development and pipeline project, to continue supporting the strong share price performance seen already this year.
H1 FY 2016 Results
21 Dec 15
Indus has released its H1 results showing operating cash generation of US$27.2m in the half from SGL revenues and positive working capital, helping fund CAPEX on the rest of the company’s RJ-ON/6 block. Reported revenues leave ground to make up in the second half due to maintenance shut-downs at the offtaker power plant and an agreement on higher gas pricing yet to be reached. We have left our full year revenue forecast unchanged optimistic that this will be made up. Our earnings forecasts reduce for greater administrative costs and lower capitalised interest than we had expected. Indus continues with its development work drilling six appraisal wells and continuing long-distance pipeline negotiations. This is all aimed at submission of a full field development plan in Q1 2016 at which time we hope for greater clarity around Indus’s long-term plans for the 6.1tcf of gross raw gas resources its RJ-ON/6 licence is estimated to hold. We would expect this to be a key event for the stock.
Full Yr To 31 Mar Results
22 Sep 15
Indus has released its FY 2015 results showing growth in revenue and profits versus the previous year. Revenues were behind our forecasts due to the level of power plant usage from customer GAIL though PAT is in line on lower-than-expected interest. Based on this we have trimmed FY 2016 revenues though PAT remains largely unchanged. Indus has drilled 15 development and appraisal wells since April 2014 supporting the potential for increased gas sales and long term development plans for the block. A full field development plan is expected to be submitted by February 2016 and plans to connect to India’s emerging national gas grid via long-distance pipeline have also progressed. SGL already provides cash flows to support further development and the main route to value for the company is progression of development of the rest of the block. We expect another update at the H1 results before the end of the year and subsequently the development plan submission – both of which could provide catalysts for the stock.
US$74m Bond Issue in Singapore
21 Apr 15
Indus has announced that it has issued SG$100m (US$74m) worth of three year notes in Singapore. These will pay a fixed semi annual coupon of 8% and settlement is expected around 23 April. As part of the process Indus has registered with the Singapore stock exchange to issue up to US$300m of bonds in total in multiple tranches allowing the company to return to the market relatively quickly to carry out further issues if desired. The statement discloses that Indus may utilise this in the coming years (subject to availability and terms) during which time we expect it to be continuing with development of its RJ-ON/6 block in Rajasthan.
08 Dec 14
Indus has released a new CPR update from Senergy on its RJ-ON/6 block in Rajasthan. Key here is the increase in gross 2P reserves from 573bcf to 872bcf of raw gas based on further work at the producing SGL field and addition of reserves elsewhere including the new SSM discovery. 2C resources are up from gross 2.7tcf to 3.3tcf based on drilling of further wells since the last report. There is also some welcome detail on further development phases focusing both on increased local sales but also, crucially, plans for subsequent development to include a long distance pipeline connection to India’s emerging national gas grid. This would help secure not only gas sales for current reserves but potentially open up a line that could hasten far more widespread commercialisation of contingent and prospective resources on Indus’s block by allowing the company to access a deep pool of gas demand in a country where supplies are very limited. Further detail around longer-term development should be available in due course but a long distance pipeline grid connection is a very important building block for this helping underpin the long-term value of the asset and the resources that it contains.
H1 Results and Declaration of Commerciality Approval
25 Nov 14
Indus has released its H1 FY 2015 results and also announced formal approval of its declaration of commerciality for an additional 2,000 sq. km development area on its RJ-ON/6 block. The H1 results show sales behind our expectations due to some intermittent outages at the power plant Indus supplies to. These have caused a reduction in our FY 2015 forecasts though FY 2016 remains constant. This should not detract from the declaration of commerciality approval which is an important step in hugely increasing the area of the block that Indus will be able to secure for the long-term. We look for this to be followed by a full development plan next year and subsequently a formal development licence. We also expect upcoming news from a new CPR. The declaration of commerciality approval helps underpin our valuation which is 1,504p risked going to 2,384p unrisked.
New US$180m Debt Facility In Place
17 Nov 14
Indus has announced completion of its new US$180m debt facility and drawing is in progress. This is to be a nine year facility with repayments beginning in July 2017. Interest is at a rate of 410bps over three month LIBOR marginally reducing the blended rate for Indus’s debt when its existing facilities are included. The new facility will be in addition to the company’s existing US$150m of facilities (which were fully drawn with outstanding repayments due of US$94.0m as at the end of September 2014) and is with a consortium of seven banks/institutions –four of which participated in Indus’s previous two debt raisings.