Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on HEINEKEN NV. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|22Feb17 15:37||GNW||Heineken N.V. publishes 2016 Annual Report|
|15Feb17 06:00||GNW||Heineken N.V. reports 2016 full year results|
|13Feb17 06:44||GNW||Heineken N.V. enters into agreement to acquire Brasil Kirin Holding S.A.|
|20Jan17 06:13||GNW||HEINEKEN STATEMENT IN RESPONSE TO PRESS SPECULATION ON KIRIN IN BRAZIL|
|22Nov16 16:35||GNW||Heineken N.V. successfully prices €500 million of Notes|
|26Oct16 07:01||GNW||Heineken N.V. reports 2016 third quarter Trading Update|
|01Aug16 06:01||GNW||Heineken N.V. reports 2016 half year results|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Strong FY above expectations, sticks to mid-term guidance
15 Feb 17
Heineken FY and Q4 update: In Q4, beer volumes increased +2.2% (in line with Q3). Q4 organic volumes by region: Africa, ME& EE +0.6%, Americas +2.8%, Asia Pacific +17.8% (very strong performance), Europe -2.5%. For the FY, beer volume was up +3% (in line with consensus) whereas revenue grew organically +4.8% (cons. +3.7%). Revenue growth per hl was up +2.2%. The organic operating profit was up +9.9% (Cons. +6.6%). On a reported basis, net revenue was up +1.4%, whereas operating margin (beia) was up 50bp (better than expected) to 17%. For the FY17, the group expects volatile market conditions and a negative impact from FX. The operating margin should progress 40bp excluding the recent acquisitions in Brazil and the UK and unforeseen large macro-economic changes. The proposed dividend is €1.34 (vs. €1.30 last year).
Q3 update: solid organic volume growth but the FX headwinds persist
26 Oct 16
Heineken’s Q3 trading update: beer volumes grew organically by +2% (consensus +1.4%, vs. 1.8% in Q2). Volumes by region: Africa, ME & EE –3.6% (cons. -3.3%), the Americas +3% (cons. +3.6%), Asia Pacific +15.1% (cons. 12%), Europe +0.6% (cons. 0%). Heineken brand volumes grew +3.5% in Q3 (improvement vs. Q2) driven by China, South Africa and Brazil. For the FY, the company expects a currency headwind of c. €215m on the consolidated operating profit (beia) and c. €115m on the net profit. The FY guidance is maintained: further organic revenue growth and a margin expansion of 40bp.
Q2 gets dragged by Africa, ME & EE
01 Aug 16
Heineken released its H1 update. Revenues were up +4.7% on an organic basis (cons. +5.3%) with beer volumes up +4.1% (cons. 4.3%, 1.8% in Q2). On a reported basis, sales were up +2% in H1 whereas the operating margin beia expanded to 16.9% (vs. 16.5% in FY15). Volumes by region: Africa, ME & EE -1.2%, the Americas +4.7%, Asia Pacific +19.4%, Europe +2.3%. The Heineken brand’s volumes were up +2.6% (impacted also by Africa). The group maintains its FY guidance: further organic revenue growth and a margin expansion of 40bp (in line with mid-term guidance).
Strong start to the year
20 Apr 16
Heineken released its Q1 trading update. The OG volumes grew +7% (cons 2.4%) driven by a strong Vietnamese and Chinese New Year and the earlier timing of Easter. OG volumes by division: Africa, Middle East & Eastern Europe +4.6% (cons. -0.3%), the Americas +8.2% (cons. +5%), Asia Pacific +23% (cons. +4.5%) and Europe +2.3% (cons. +0.9%). The Heineken brand grew +4.8% in volumes.
Heineken remains confident about FY16 in spite of increased market volatility
10 Feb 16
Heineken released its FY results. Organic beer volumes were up 2.3% (in line with consensus), whereas organic net revenue progressed by 3.5% (cons +3.6%). Revenue/hl grew 1.3%. On reported figures sales grew +6.5% (FX: +2.5%). The operating margin (beia) was up by 23bp due to the dilutive impact of the disposal of EMPAQUE, but on an underlying basis the operating margin rose by 64bp. The net profit (beia) progressed by 16% and by 25% on a reported basis. The dividend is up to €1.30 (€1.10 in FY14). In Q4, beer volumes were up +1.4% for the whole group. Q4 organic volumes by region: Africa, ME& EE -3.5%, Americas +7.2%, Asia Pacific +2.8%, Europe -0.7%. Q4 organic net revenue by region: Africa, ME& EE -4.7%, Americas +10.3%, Asia Pacific -0.7%, Europe +0.5%. For FY16, Heineken expects to deliver further organic revenue and revenue despite an increasingly challenging environment, with a margin expansion at 40bp (in line with mid-term guidance).
Very strong Q3 thanks to acceleration in the Amercias and Europe
28 Oct 15
Heineken released its Q3 update. Total consolidated organic revenue grew +7.5% (consensus +3.9%). Beer volumes grew organically by +5.4% (consensus +2.6%). Organic beer volume growth by region: Africa Middle East & EE -0.1% (consensus -1.3%), Americas +6.7 (consensus +3%), Asia Pacific +6% (consensus +4.9%) and Europe 6.8% (consensus 3.9%). Revenue per hectolitre grew +1.8%. On reported figures, revenue increased by 8% to €5.51bn. Heineken decided to discontinue its share buy-back programme (€365m completed out of €750m) in light of the recent acquisitions (50% stake in Lagunitas Brewery, 53.43% stake in Pivovarna Lasko, Brassivoire JV in Ivory Coast, 57.9% stake in Desnoes & Geddes Ltd (Jamaica) and 49.99% of GAPL Pte Ltd, which distributes stout beer in Singapore and Malaysia). The company’s FY15 operating margin expansion guidance is maintained.
13 Feb 17
Middlesbrough-based pawnbroker Ramsdens Holdings is set to join AIM on 15 February. Its growth is not coming from its core business but from providing foreign currency, pre-paid travel cards and international payments. The strategy is to increase the group’s online activities and grow the number of branches. In the year to March 2016, group revenues improved from £29.2m to £30m. The accounts of the main subsidiary show that foreign-currency margin rose from £5.36m to £7.59m. This contributes 35% of group gross profit. By contrast, the core business of pawnbroking, precious metal purchases and retail sales fell from £21.3m to £19.8m. Revenues from other financial services were flat at £2.6m. Ramsdens has 127 sites and last year it made an operating profit of £3.19m. In the six months to September 2016, revenues increased from £16.2m to £18.4m and operating profit improved from £2.81m to £3.48m. The placing will raise £15.6m at 86p a share, valuing the company at £26.5m. NorthEdge Capital, which backed a buyout in September 2014, will receive just over £10m from share sales. The NorthEdge stake will fall from 75.6% to 30.7%. The other £5m will go to the company and be used to repay the remaining loan notes and the costs of the flotation. By the end of March 2016, there were still £4m of loan notes outstanding to NorthEdge, with £4.86m paid off during the previous year.
FY16 pre-close +ve surprise: Raising FY16, 17, 18 PBT c.1%, 4% and 6%
12 Jan 17
Today’s slightly better-than-expected FY16 pre-close trading statement prompts us to raise our FY16 PBT estimate by c.1%, reflecting the combination of (1) growth in several of HFG’s key markets, (2) strong overall operating performance, and (3) favourable fx translational benefits (recalling that 62% of FY15 sales were ex-UK). To reflect the positive profit contribution impact of the Portuguese j/v agreement signed on January 4th, the j/v income line is boosted by €1.5m (c.£1.3m) and €2.5m (c.£2.2m) in FY17 and FY18 respectively, representing upgrades of c.4% and c.6%. Once operating at full capacity utilisation, the j/v could well add €3m (c.£2.6m) in FY19. To reflect (1) our increased FY16-FY18 forecasts, (2) current peer EV/EBITDA valuation multiples, and (3) our view that HFG now deserves to trade at a premium to the peer group in view of its impressively strong financial track record (i.e. FY06-FY16 since IPO) for organic and investment-led profitable growth, combined with an array of emerging, highly promising initiatives (see our note “Start of a new chapter of growth” published on October 4th) to expand the scale and scope of HFG’s core business, we raise our TP to 805p (previously 755p). Maintain BUY.
04 Nov 16
Looking at the top 50 non-listed casual dining and bar operators, it appears that the £80bn market for eating and drinking out in the UK is alive and well. The AlixPartners Growth Company Index (October 2016) shows that 2-year profit CAGR has improved over the last few years, and recent surveys from Greene King, Coffer Peach and Deloitte highlight elevated spend on out-of-home occasions. We attribute this to 1) a shift amongst consumers from an ownership to experience-led mentality which has driven habitual spend on leisure 2) an increasing focus on food from historically wet-led operators as they diversify their revenue streams to mitigate competition from the off-trade and match consumer gravitation towards eating out and convenience; 3) increasing regional penetration resulting from oversupply and high rental costs in London and 4) strong sector support from Private Equity investors, attracted to the Leisure sector's cash flow profile which can be leveraged against. Nevertheless, we may look back on 2016 as the peak for casual dining and bar operator profitability, particularly for London-weighted operators who face unfavourable rent and rate costs as well as potential loss of cheap migrant/seasonal labour. Past performance is certainly not a guide to future performance.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
25 Nov 16
Sound Energy (SOU): Completion of fundraise (BUY)| Ithaca Energy (IAE): Inspection delay (BUY) | Zambeef* (ZAM): Good performance in a challenging year (CORP) | Gresham House Strategic* (GHS): Attractively priced (CORP) |Joy of Techs: Analyst interview | Support Group: Analyst interview
27 Jan 17
We initiate on Hotel Chocolat with a 270p price target and Hold rating. While the investment case is attractive, capturing production efficiencies accounts for half of the 21% PBT CAGR forecast to FY19E. Any slippage in the timing of related capital projects or resulting production disruption could weigh on the stock, which at 37x forward earnings is, in our view, priced for perfection. With the share price up 90% since IPO last year, we suggest investors await a more favourable entry point.