Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on HEINEKEN NV. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Q3 update: solid organic volume growth but the FX headwinds persist
26 Oct 16
Heineken’s Q3 trading update: beer volumes grew organically by +2% (consensus +1.4%, vs. 1.8% in Q2). Volumes by region: Africa, ME & EE –3.6% (cons. -3.3%), the Americas +3% (cons. +3.6%), Asia Pacific +15.1% (cons. 12%), Europe +0.6% (cons. 0%). Heineken brand volumes grew +3.5% in Q3 (improvement vs. Q2) driven by China, South Africa and Brazil. For the FY, the company expects a currency headwind of c. €215m on the consolidated operating profit (beia) and c. €115m on the net profit. The FY guidance is maintained: further organic revenue growth and a margin expansion of 40bp.
Q2 gets dragged by Africa, ME & EE
01 Aug 16
Heineken released its H1 update. Revenues were up +4.7% on an organic basis (cons. +5.3%) with beer volumes up +4.1% (cons. 4.3%, 1.8% in Q2). On a reported basis, sales were up +2% in H1 whereas the operating margin beia expanded to 16.9% (vs. 16.5% in FY15). Volumes by region: Africa, ME & EE -1.2%, the Americas +4.7%, Asia Pacific +19.4%, Europe +2.3%. The Heineken brand’s volumes were up +2.6% (impacted also by Africa). The group maintains its FY guidance: further organic revenue growth and a margin expansion of 40bp (in line with mid-term guidance).
Strong start to the year
20 Apr 16
Heineken released its Q1 trading update. The OG volumes grew +7% (cons 2.4%) driven by a strong Vietnamese and Chinese New Year and the earlier timing of Easter. OG volumes by division: Africa, Middle East & Eastern Europe +4.6% (cons. -0.3%), the Americas +8.2% (cons. +5%), Asia Pacific +23% (cons. +4.5%) and Europe +2.3% (cons. +0.9%). The Heineken brand grew +4.8% in volumes.
Heineken remains confident about FY16 in spite of increased market volatility
10 Feb 16
Heineken released its FY results. Organic beer volumes were up 2.3% (in line with consensus), whereas organic net revenue progressed by 3.5% (cons +3.6%). Revenue/hl grew 1.3%. On reported figures sales grew +6.5% (FX: +2.5%). The operating margin (beia) was up by 23bp due to the dilutive impact of the disposal of EMPAQUE, but on an underlying basis the operating margin rose by 64bp. The net profit (beia) progressed by 16% and by 25% on a reported basis. The dividend is up to €1.30 (€1.10 in FY14). In Q4, beer volumes were up +1.4% for the whole group. Q4 organic volumes by region: Africa, ME& EE -3.5%, Americas +7.2%, Asia Pacific +2.8%, Europe -0.7%. Q4 organic net revenue by region: Africa, ME& EE -4.7%, Americas +10.3%, Asia Pacific -0.7%, Europe +0.5%. For FY16, Heineken expects to deliver further organic revenue and revenue despite an increasingly challenging environment, with a margin expansion at 40bp (in line with mid-term guidance).
Very strong Q3 thanks to acceleration in the Amercias and Europe
28 Oct 15
Heineken released its Q3 update. Total consolidated organic revenue grew +7.5% (consensus +3.9%). Beer volumes grew organically by +5.4% (consensus +2.6%). Organic beer volume growth by region: Africa Middle East & EE -0.1% (consensus -1.3%), Americas +6.7 (consensus +3%), Asia Pacific +6% (consensus +4.9%) and Europe 6.8% (consensus 3.9%). Revenue per hectolitre grew +1.8%. On reported figures, revenue increased by 8% to €5.51bn. Heineken decided to discontinue its share buy-back programme (€365m completed out of €750m) in light of the recent acquisitions (50% stake in Lagunitas Brewery, 53.43% stake in Pivovarna Lasko, Brassivoire JV in Ivory Coast, 57.9% stake in Desnoes & Geddes Ltd (Jamaica) and 49.99% of GAPL Pte Ltd, which distributes stout beer in Singapore and Malaysia). The company’s FY15 operating margin expansion guidance is maintained.
Good H1 results in challenging market environment
03 Aug 15
Heineken released its H1 update. Revenue stood at €9.8bn (consensus at €9.76bn). Organic revenue growth at 1.9% (cons. at 1%). Group operating profit (beia) was €1.54bn (cons. at €1.53bn). Beer volume was up by 1% (cons. at 0.7%). Consolidated revenue organic growth by region: Africa Middle East 1.4% (cons. 0.1%), Americas 5.8% (cons. 6%), Asia Pacific 7.4% (cons. 7.7%), CEE 1% (cons. -0.9%), West Europe -0.8% (cons. -2.4%). Heineken brands' volumes rose by 4.7% in H1 (3.2% in Q2). The consolidated operating margin was flat (the group's operating margin increased by 20bp). The interim dividend stood at €0.44. The share buy-back programme reached €229m (€750m considered) as of 24 July 2015. Heineken confirmed its full-year outlook: positive organic revenue growth in 2015 with volume growth at a more moderate level than in 2014, and weighted towards H2 (tougher comparatives in H1). Continued volume growth in developing markets will offset more subdued volume growth elsewhere.
Increasing price target from 815p to 835p
08 Dec 16
Following our 2 November 2016 note “The valuation genie is out of the bottle”, a great deal of new information has been disclosed about MPE (particularly on the non-core assets), while the company has re-based the dividend, announced a special dividend and announced the sale of major associate PT Agro Muko for US$100m. We now take all this new information into account and update our forecasts accordingly. As a result, we are increasing our price target from 815p/share to 835p/share.
New packing facility; Highly significant for underpinning future growth
06 Dec 16
HFG has announced plans to expand its packing capability in Australia, by constructing (at an expected investment cost of A$115m financed through bank facilities) a new meat processing facility in Queensland, in order to supply Woolworths, the leading grocery retailer in Australia. This is a highly significant development as the new Queensland plant, alongside HFG’s two existing dedicated retail packed meat facilities in Melbourne and Bunbury (both operated as a joint venture with Woolworths) should mean that HFG supplies the bulk of Woolworth’s c.1,000 stores with their red meat needs over time. In short, this development should underpin growth at HFG for many years to come from 2020 onwards, which, in turn, should result in a higher and more stable earnings stream over time, supporting a continued rerating of HFG’s valuation multiple, in our view. We reiterate our BUY.
06 Dec 16
600 Group* (SIXH): Interim results: order book showing signs of improvement (CORP) | Real Good Food* (RGD): Commodity volatility impacts numbers (CORP) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): .vip goes live in China (CORP | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interims (CORP) | iomart* (IOM): Quality business as usual (CORP) | Fulcrum (FCRM): Upgrades continue (BUY)
Using their loaf
30 Nov 16
Finsbury Foods has been transformed by a series of acquisitions that has contributed to revenue and earnings nearly doubling over the last three years. Record levels of capital investment continue to improve the Group’s competitive position, whilst exposure to growth segments of the food market is helping likefor-likes. Profit growth is expected to slow in the current year in the absence of acquisitions but underlying trading remains resilient despite some cost headwinds, whilst debt reduction is accelerating. The rating is undemanding and the recent share price weakness has created a buying opportunity.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.