Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on AEGON NV. We currently have 8 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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Transformation is proceeding well
20 Feb 17
Aegon’s Q4 16 sales reached €2,727m (-5.5% yoy), but the ytd turnover is still showing an increase of 14.8% to €11,956m. FY 16 new life sales were down 27.2% to €2,054m. In Q4 16, the market consistent value of new business declined by 20.8% to €118m, confirming the negative trend for the full year (-29.6% to €420m). FY 16 gross deposits increased 21.4% to €100,325m. Q4 16 underlying earnings before tax improved by 27.4% to €554m yoy, but only 2.4% to €1,913m for the whole year. Only European and Asian operations recorded better underlying profits (17.2% to €655m and +5% to €21m, respectively). Americas’ earnings showed lower earnings (-2.2% to €1,249m), as did the asset management business (-12.3% to €149m). Realised gains on investments showed resilience at €340m. FY 16 net income stood at €586m. The solvency II ratio stood at 159%. The board will propose at the AGM a final dividend for 2016 of €0.13 per share, paid in cash or stock at the request of the shareholders.
A permanent member of the bad surprises club
12 May 16
Aegon’s Q1 16 sales reached €3,560m (+35.6% yoy). New Life sales were down by 11% to €266m. The market-consistent value of new business amounted to €133m, -5% yoy. Gross deposits increased 50.6% to €30,078m and net deposits followed the same positive trend and stood at €7,615m (+4.8% yoy). Q1 16 underlying earnings before tax improved by 6.9% to €462m. Realised gains on investments totalled only €54m. In Q1 16, operating expenses increased by 6.4% to €960m. The loss from fair value items amounted to €358m, leading to a Q1 15 net income of €143m, down 50.5% yoy. Shareholders’ equity reached €22,848m at end March 2016. The gross leverage ratio stood at 28.7% in Q1 16, well within the target range of 26-30%. Aegon’s Solvency II ratio declined to 155% on a pro forma basis. On 13 January 2016, Aegon announced and commenced its €400m share buy-back programme. The first tranche of the share buy-back programme (€200m) was completed on 31 March 2016 through the repurchase of 41.1 million shares. The second tranche of €200m was announced and started on April 2016. As of 11 May 2016, 29 million shares have been repurchased at an average repurchase price of €4.97/share.
US business weakens group earnings
19 Feb 16
Aegon’s Q4 15 sales reached €2,913m (+37.6% yoy), bringing the ytd turnover to €10,708m (+24.5% yoy). FY 15 New life sales were down 18.2% to €4,578m. The Q4 15, the market consistent value of new business declined by 23.9% to €149m, confirming the negative trend for the full year (-28.2% to €597m). FY 15 gross deposits increased 39.3% to €77,205m. Net deposits more than doubled to €17,563m. Q4 15 underlying earnings before tax decreased by 13.5% to €486m yoy, but increased 3.9% to €1,939m for the whole year. Realised gains on investments dropped by 50.3% to €346m. FY 15 net income stood at €619m, down 47.8% yoy. Shareholders’ equity increased to €24,293m at 31 December 2015. The gross leverage ratio further improved to 27% in Q4 15, well within the target range of 26-30%. The board will propose at the AGM a final dividend for 2015 of €0.13 per share, paid in cash or stock at the request of the shareholders.
Q4 15: reporting Friday, 19 February
11 Feb 16
After several earnings disappointments last year, and following guidance in the January investor presentation, we are expecting an uneventful Q4, with a modest 4% decline in underlying earnings. With some valuation upside emerging after recent volatility we upgrade the shares from SELL to a HOLD on valuation grounds.
Solvency II is no longer a nightmare
13 Jan 16
Aegon presented today its strategy update and 2018 financial targets. New targets include an ROE of 10% and a reduction in annual operating expenses of €200m by 2018, in part through investment in digital capabilities. The insurer has announced a Solvency II ratio of 160% by 2015, based on the approved partial internal model. Thanks to this, the final dividend was increased to €0.13/share and a €400m share buy-back programme was announced, of which a first tranche of €200m will be repurchased before 31 March 2016. The Dutch insurer has also announced that its strategic focus will be on growing the fee businesses, expanding in asset management, restructuring the US operations into one functionally-organised business, exploring options for the UK annuity book and implementing accounting policy changes with an estimated impact on shareholders' equity of €1.3bn to align accounting policies with in-force management.
N+1 Singer - Uncovered Gems - Speed Dating Lunch - A Famous Five for the future?
12 Apr 17
On Friday we hosted our third “speed dating” lunch with the management of five very interesting and contrasting companies not under our formal coverage: Be Heard, Byotrol, Gfinity, Oxehealth and Plant Impact. Each company gave a concise and punchy overview of its business and investment case to a group of fund managers, before rapid fire Q&A. Below we summarise our thoughts on each company with more details inside the note, plus some relevant slides. We believe that all five companies are well-managed and well worth a closer look - we intend to repeat this efficient and popular format for engaging with management teams.
24 Apr 17
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Growth supported by a strong balance sheet (CORP) | Mortice* (MORT): UK acquisition (CORP) | Avacta* (AVCT): Another milestone – 1st non-therapeutics licence (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDF): Trading update and Q3 results (BUY) | Nasstar* (NASA): Growth and margin focus (CORP)
Non Life Insurance - Growing impact of hacks on share prices
18 Apr 17
Our November 2016 Cyber report flagged the growing impact of cyber attacks on quoted companies, noting that Yahoo’s breach would inevitably negatively impact Verizon’s offer price, which it did. A report by CGI and Oxford Economics has found that, to date,severe hacks on UK companies permanently reduced their share price by 1.8% - or approximately a £120m hit to MCap for a FTSE 100 firm. With GDPR coming into effect next year, we expect more headlines. That has got to be good for cyber insurers and cyber security firms.
Small Cap Breakfast
24 Apr 17
Global Ports Holding—Intention to float on Standard List of the Main Market. International cruise ports operator. Seeking $250m raise including $75m primary offer. Dorcaster—Schedule One Update. Admission now expected on AIM 3 May. RTO of Escape Hunt raising £14m at 135p. Verditek— Intention to float on AIM. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Raising £3.5m. Admission in May. Eddie Stobart Logistics— Schedule 1 update. Admission expected 25 April on AIM raising £122m. ADES International Holding— Intends to join the Standard List of the Main Market in May raising up to $170m plus a vendor sale. Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa. Admission expected in May. Tufton Oceanic Assets– Offer extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable investors to complete further due diligence.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Growth style screen revamp and 10 focus stocks
06 Apr 17
We have reviewed the performance of our consistent growth screen since the previous refresh on 27 September 2016 and revamped the selection parameters to focus more on forecast sales and EPS growth going forward. In the period under review the consistent growth style screen outperformed the small-cap benchmark by c. 6% and underperformed the microcap index by a similar amount. Interestingly, although growth doesn’t always seem to be defensive as might be expected, however it appears right to buy growth on dips caused by or coincident with wider market volatility. In the new forecast growth screen we take a close look at 10 focus stocks. We will monitor performance and refresh it in three to four months time.