Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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Bank waiver extended
19 Jan 16
During 2015, the combination of adjustments to reserves (after a 2014 CPR), drop in oil prices and reduction in the capex programme reduced the availability of the senior bank facility and led to a requirement to make material repayments on the company’s loans. Petroceltic was not able to make these repayments and continues to seek ways to secure additional financing, create liquidity and/or reduce financial commitments. On 23 December, the company initiated a strategic review with a view to considering all options to maximise value for stakeholders. It has received a number of conditional proposals and expressions of interest for its assets – negotiations are ongoing. Given the limited liquidity available to Petroceltic, the lender group agreed to waivers until 15 January. On 18 January, these waivers were extended until 29 January. In view of the strategic process we are withdrawing our forecasts and valuation.
Massive ENI discovery close to PCI licence
01 Sep 15
There was good news for Petroceltic (PCI) over the weekend. ENI announced that it had made a 30tcf GIIP discovery offshore Egypt, the largest ever gas find in the Mediterranean. The discovery, Zohr, is in the corner of a block adjacent to the North Port Fouad (NPF) licence, which Petroceltic shares on a 50:50 basis with Edison (operator). Zohr is around 3.5km from the block boundary and, according to ENI, covers 100km2. It is therefore possible that the field encroaches into the PCI/Edison block. In addition to a possible interest in Zohr, PCI has a significant interest in a licence that sits between a number of very large gas fields – Zohr to the west and Leviathan (22tcf) and Tamar (10tcf), which lie to the east, offshore Israel.
Creating value in Algeria through execution
07 Jul 15
Petroceltic (PCI) is an E&P with assets in Egypt, Bulgaria and Algeria, where it is developing its flagship gas project Ain Tsila. As producing fields in Egypt and Bulgaria decline and exploration is de-emphasised, the valuation proposition in PCI shifts steadily towards Algeria. The drilling contract for Ain Tsila was awarded in April and the project is on track to be sanctioned by end-2015 and start up in Q418. Ain Tsila is fully funded until Q216 thanks to Sonatrach’s carry. The June launch of a $175m secured bond is an important step towards securing financing for H216-2018 – further progress on this front would remove uncertainty. A RENAV of 154p/share (which should grow c 16% pa over time) indicates the stock is pricing in nothing for a possible second phase at Ain Tsila or exploration.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
30 Nov 16
Gran Tierra (GTE CN)1, 6; BUY, C$5.50: Equity financing and acquisition of two blocks from Ecopetrol | Northern Petroleum (NOP LN)1; SPECUATIVE BUY, £0.15: Farm out and equity issue | President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): IFC Equity Subscription | Primeline Energy (PEH CN) (not covered): 2Q16 Results ended 30 September 2016 | Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)6 ; BUY, £1.20: Oda update in Norway | Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN)1 ; Under Review: Placing | SacOil (SAC LN/SCL SJ)1 : SPECULATIVE BUY, £0.016, Trading Update
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
Operating profits and net cash position – restored; market outlook – precarious
01 Dec 16
The turnaround was noticeable Lonmin’s full-year (September-ending) results were ahead of consensus and AV’s estimates. Sales came in at $1.1bn (-14% yoy) as the average realised (USD-denominated) PGM prices and sales volumes were down yoy 12% and 2%, respectively. However, platinum sales (736koz) were much ahead of earlier guidance (700koz) – thanks to certain smelting/processing efficiencies, which helped more than offset the impact of reorganisation-related disruptions. After two consecutive years (FY14-15) of hefty operating losses, Lonmin finally reported an adjusted operating profit (even though feeble) of $7m. This was facilitated by the record weakness in the South African rand (down from ZAR12/$ in FY15 to ZAR14.77/$ in FY16) and ZAR1.3bn of cost savings – 86% higher than the earlier target. Disappointingly, Lonmin recognised $335m of asset impairments (vs. $1.8bn in FY2015), which resulted in a full-year net loss of $400m. But the turnaround in reported OCFs – inflow of $58m vs. an outflow of $12m – was a much-needed improvement, which, along with conservative capex (-35% yoy) of $87m, resulted in a net cash position of $173m (with no short-term repayments) vs. a net debt position of $185m (at end-FY15). But the guidance spells caution For FY17, management targets conservative platinum sales of 650-680koz, while unit costs are expected to remain under pressure – ZAR10,800-11,300/oz vs. ZAR10,748/oz achieved in FY16. On the other hand, capex plans would be aggressive – ZAR1.8bn (which includes ZAR400m for the tailings project – already delayed by almost two years) vs. ZAR1.3bn spent in FY16.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.