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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI SIENA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI SIENA
BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI SIENA
Has visibility really improved ?
25 Oct 16
The group released its Q3 results, reiterated its capital action plan and presented a standalone three-year business plan. We see the business plan exercise as interesting from a valuation angle while we do not expect it to remain standalone. However, we note the major uncertainty, which concerns the residual losses on past dues and unlikely to pay loans and untransferred bad loans, remains in its entirety, especially since the group does not provide forecasts for 2017. In our view, this continues to reduce the visibility on the group’s valuation significantly.
Sleeping beauty makeover, waiting for the handsome prince
01 Aug 16
Q2 results were on track but progress remains too slow to attract the long-awaited handsome prince, while the standalone strategy is not a viable/allowed path. ECB’s letter and the stress test failure are forcing management to accelerate the NPL reduction, an operation enabled by the new State guarantee and the creation of the Atlas fund. However, the operation requires a €5bn rights issue to maintain the solvency position while Atlas will be offered warrants as extra protection.
Hour of truth
08 Jul 16
The hour of truth has come for BMPS which had not been allowed to follow a standalone path by the ECB. With the group’s asset quality issue apparently making the handsome prince hard to get, the ECB has had no choice but to request an accelerated NPL reduction that is likely to require at least a temporary capital injection. The bailout seems to be the only workable approach.
Net interest margin headwinds
23 Feb 16
The quarterly results were characterised by strong net interest margin pressure and ongoing asset quality deterioration. The group finally decided to outsource the management of its oversized NPLs portfolio in order to accelerate the balance sheet clean-up. The details including the financial terms will not be known for a few months. Management believes the group is in a position to post a profit this year but preferred not to give more precise guidance given the uncertainty created by the market correction and the global slowdown. The handsome prince continues to play hard to get.
Quarterly results in line
29 Jan 16
As announced, the group released its preliminary, non-audited results ahead of schedule in an attempt to relieve market pressure. The presentation of final results will be held on 5 February. The quarterly results were distorted by the restatement of the Alexandria derivative transaction. On an underlying basis, the group will report a loss of around €200m in line with expectations. Asset quality further deteriorated but the group managed to decrease its NPL stock through disposals. The solvency position has remained stable. Management acknowledges funding pressure but the liquidity position remains strong.
Mobilising the strategy
08 Dec 16
PCF has reported a good set of FY16 figures this morning. Pro forma 12 month adjusted pre-tax profit increased 38% YoY to £4.0m (FY15: £2.9m), 5% ahead of our estimate of £3.8m. Fully diluted return on equity remained broadly stable YoY at 13% but beat our forecast of 12.6%, driven by good loan book growth, up 14% YoY to £122m. Given the strength of the results the board has reinstated a dividend of 0.1p per share. Following Tuesday’s announcement of the approval of a banking licence, we believe that the group now has the capacity to accelerate its growth prospects. While the shares trade at 12.0x earnings and 2.0x reported book value, we do not believe this valuation captures the growth potential of the business.
VPC Speciality Lending Investments PLC – sticking to your knitting pays dividends
05 Dec 16
A 25% discount on a dividend paying vehicle suggests either (a) lack of belief in the NAV, (b) lack of belief in the dividend, (c) concerns over future delivery, (d) a shareholder’s base not normally exposure to “closed end structures” or (e) some combination of (a) to (d). We had a first meeting with the management team and London representative of VPC Speciality Lending to try to better understand why the share price had fallen quite so much.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
Better Capital – A tale of two funds
05 Dec 16
Our gut feel on the results is that BCAP’s Gardner disposal feels viable (albeit as a late Q1 transaction). Post Gardner, the exit profile for BCAP’s portfolio is slanted towards the years 2018/19 and not earlier; we view the market’s current pricing as cautious (14% disc to our estimate of FV). In contrast, BC12’s more consumer facing portfolio remains a work in progress and may well offer further disappointment before turning a corner; the market valuation (51% discount to NAV) is cautious but probably fair given the difficulties.
Panmure Morning Note 07-12-2016
07 Dec 16
PCF today announces that it has succeeded in achieving once its major strategic goals by being granted a UK banking licence. In line with prior guidance, the company aims to begin taking deposits in summer 2017 and will initially focus on lending to its core markets in consumer motor finance and SME asset finance. As well as supporting growth in the loan book, the banking licence will both diversify and reduce the cost of its funding base. More details are expected as part of the FY16 results tomorrow.
Meeting near-term headwinds
06 Dec 16
In its trading update IFG reported that performance has been in line with management expectations. The cooling effect of market uncertainty on growth in James Hay and financial advice client numbers, together with the impact of low interest rates, remain a near-term head wind for revenues. Even so, with Saunderson House continuing to increase profits, IFG expects to match 2015 earnings. The long-term growth opportunity presented by an ageing population and pension freedoms remains in place and to address this IFG is continuing investment to enhance its service and increase operational gearing.