Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on UNICREDIT SPA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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05 Dec 16
Although expected, the No vote result of the Italian referendum attracted more votes than expected and is likely to lead to a freezing of economic reforms until the 2018 elections. This creates uncertainty regarding the recapitalisation of BMPS and by association smaller troubled banks. It also raises doubts about UCG’s own ability to perform its long-awaited capital increase which is expected to be announced next week. On the positive side, the Austrian vote is a positive to UCG which has a strong exposure to the country. The group has also confirmed this morning that it has entered into exclusive negotiations with Amundi concerning the sale of Pioneer.
First step on the road to salvation
13 Jul 16
The group has successively announced a 10% stake reduction in FinecoBank and Pekao. The move was welcomed by the market as, with a 20bp boost to the group’s solvency ratio, it reduces the dilution risk. However, this expected move is just a first step on the long road to salvation.
Distressed valuation on accumulated uncertainties
08 Jul 16
The market turmoil and the likely deterioration of the macro-economic scenario have led us to downgrade our earnings projections and valuations. At this stage, we believe most of the impact will be felt at the top-line level while we do not consider that the economic slowdown will dramatically derail asset quality trends. A protest vote to the upcoming referendum could change our view. The bailout of troubled domestic banks will be a supportive announcement. However, the uncertainty surrounding the future action plan of the new management to tackle the structural profitability and equity issues and the outcome of the referendum could continue to weigh on the stock’s relative performance.
Capital raising spiral
02 Jun 16
The group is looking for a new chief executive following the forced resignation of Federico Ghizzoni. The stock’s sharp P/E discount confirms that investors have lost patience and that the group has now entered the exclusive club of institutions expected to raise equity sooner or later, an option the former CEO was firmly opposed to.
Ongoing but slow recovery process
25 Feb 16
Although reported quarterly numbers were distorted by non-recurring items, underlying data showed resilient activity level trends that are expected to be confirmed this year. The group’s restructuring remains on track and extra cost savings have been secured in Austria. NPLs' disposals have been pivotal to stabilise asset quality. The acceleration in the Italian recovery coupled with the likely government’s complementary incentive measures to increase investors’ appetite are expected to kick-start the asset quality normalisation move this year. The sharp improvement in the capital position has enabled management to resume a partial cash dividend payment.
Positive returns from all asset classes in Q316
28 Nov 16
Tetragon Financial Group (TFG) reported fair value earnings of US$49.7m for the third quarter of 2016, with positive contributions made by all asset classes. NAV total return was 1.3% for the quarter and 7.8% for the nine months to 30 September 2016. Having completed a US$100m tender offer in June 2016, TFG commenced a US$50m tender offer on 9 November 2016, which should be meaningfully accretive to NAV per share given the current wide share price discount to NAV. Consistent with previous years, the third interim dividend was held in line with the second interim, confirming TFG’s 5.9% yield.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 30-11-2016
30 Nov 16
Sanderson has delivered full year results in line with expectations and the 19 October trading update after a strong finish to the year compensated for a slower start. A healthy level of pre-contracted recurring revenue (50%), incremental sales to existing customers and new customer wins at higher average order values helped deliver solid revenue growth in both the Digital Retail (+9%) and Enterprise (+12%) divisions. A decent order book and good sales momentum suggest that the company is on track to deliver on unchanged profit expectations for the current year. We continue to view the valuation (FY17 EV/EBITDA 8.6x) as undemanding given an attractive combination of accelerating growth potential, strong cash generation and growing dividends.
VPC Speciality Lending Investments PLC – sticking to your knitting pays dividends
05 Dec 16
A 25% discount on a dividend paying vehicle suggests either (a) lack of belief in the NAV, (b) lack of belief in the dividend, (c) concerns over future delivery, (d) a shareholder’s base not normally exposure to “closed end structures” or (e) some combination of (a) to (d). We had a first meeting with the management team and London representative of VPC Speciality Lending to try to better understand why the share price had fallen quite so much.
N+1 Singer - Grainger - Final results in line, further progress on PRS investment pipeline
01 Dec 16
Grainger has reported FY16 final results this morning with key NNNAV and recurring PBT metrics in line with our forecasts. Sales performance and rental income growth was strong in H2, as previewed in the positive FY trading update driving our 19% PBT upgrade in early October (11/10). The PRS investment pipeline continues to grow now standing at £389m secured and £347m in legals as Grainger pursues an £850m investment target by 2020. A 3.05p final dividend is in line with the revised policy to distribute 50% net rental income. The shares continue to trade on a significant, and unwarranted, 20%+ discount to NNNAV. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Better Capital – A tale of two funds
05 Dec 16
Our gut feel on the results is that BCAP’s Gardner disposal feels viable (albeit as a late Q1 transaction). Post Gardner, the exit profile for BCAP’s portfolio is slanted towards the years 2018/19 and not earlier; we view the market’s current pricing as cautious (14% disc to our estimate of FV). In contrast, BC12’s more consumer facing portfolio remains a work in progress and may well offer further disappointment before turning a corner; the market valuation (51% discount to NAV) is cautious but probably fair given the difficulties.