Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on PARMALAT SPA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Minority shareholders will try to squeeze more out of Lactalis
29 Dec 16
Two days after Lactalis’s buy-out offer, Parmalat’s share price holds above €2.95. It seems to us that some minority shareholders will try to squeeze more out of Lactalis, as the latter company said it wants to delist the stock. Lactalis is known for being reluctant of making its business public. Amber Capital (which owns 2.8% shares) said it is waiting for at least €4.00 per share. Pending litigation issues (namely with Citibank challenging the damage awards of $431m) make this price quite challenging. Nevertheless, it is not excluded that Lactalis could sweeten its offer.
9M: profitability improves but the outlook remains subdued
14 Nov 16
9M update: revenues are up +2.4% (at constant FX, scope of consolidation and excluding Venezuelan hyperinflation) and -2.4% on reported figures. The EBITDA margin improved by 20bp to 6.8% on a yoy basis but also on a qoq basis (+210bp). By region and at constant FX and scope of consolidation, revenue for Europe was down 0.9% whereas other geographies recorded improved sales (notably LatAm +7.5% and Africa +9.2%).
Q2 looks better than Q1
01 Aug 16
Parmalat released its H1 update. Sales grew +2.3% organically and +1% on reported figures. The EBITDA margin was flat yoy, arriving at 5.7% in H1 (+40bp in Q2). By region and at constant FX and scope of consolidation, revenue was flat for Europe (-0.5% in H1) with a 30bp improvement in margins. In North America, sales were up +2.2%, whereas the margin expanded to 9.8% (+160bp). LatAm was up +13.5 on favourable comps (very weak results in H1 last year). In Africa, sales were up +4.7% but the EBITDA contracted by 17%. Australia was flattish in both sales and margin terms. Net profit for period was up to €45.4m, mainly on lower financial expenses. Full-year guidance was maintained.
Boring FY outlook
11 Mar 16
Parmalat reported its FY results. Revenue was up 15.7% (+6% in Q4) on reported figures and +8.8% on constant scope of consolidation, constant FX and excluding hyperinflation in Venezuela. EBITDA rose +1.1% (-5.8% in Q4), +22.1% on an underlying basis excluding hyperinflation in Venezuela. The EBITDA margin was down 100bp (to 6.9%), impacted by hyperinflation in Venezuela. Net profit was down 28%. The proposed dividend is €0.017. For FY16, the company expects to deliver +5% in net sales and +10% in EBITDA at constant FX, scope consolidation and excluding the effect of hyperinflation in Venezuela.
Q3 update: better underlying performance but hyperinflation in Venezuela weighs on profitability
13 Nov 15
Parmalat released its Q3 update. Net sales at constant currency and scope of consolidation were up +9.3% (vs. 6% in H1) and +31.8% on reported figures (FX -2.2%, scope of consolidation +24.6%, hyperinflation in Venezuela +3.3%). The EBITDA progressed by c. +44% on a constant basis and +25% on reported figures. On a constant basis, all regions except Latin America increased their EBITDA margin in Q3. On reported figures, the Q3 EBITDA margin remains down 50bp yoy due to adverse FX effect as well as hyperinflation in Venezuela. The group confirmed its FY guidance: c. 10% growth for net revenue and about 6% for EBITDA at constant FX and including the contribution of new acquisitions.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
FY16 pre-close +ve surprise: Raising FY16, 17, 18 PBT c.1%, 4% and 6%
12 Jan 17
Today’s slightly better-than-expected FY16 pre-close trading statement prompts us to raise our FY16 PBT estimate by c.1%, reflecting the combination of (1) growth in several of HFG’s key markets, (2) strong overall operating performance, and (3) favourable fx translational benefits (recalling that 62% of FY15 sales were ex-UK). To reflect the positive profit contribution impact of the Portuguese j/v agreement signed on January 4th, the j/v income line is boosted by €1.5m (c.£1.3m) and €2.5m (c.£2.2m) in FY17 and FY18 respectively, representing upgrades of c.4% and c.6%. Once operating at full capacity utilisation, the j/v could well add €3m (c.£2.6m) in FY19. To reflect (1) our increased FY16-FY18 forecasts, (2) current peer EV/EBITDA valuation multiples, and (3) our view that HFG now deserves to trade at a premium to the peer group in view of its impressively strong financial track record (i.e. FY06-FY16 since IPO) for organic and investment-led profitable growth, combined with an array of emerging, highly promising initiatives (see our note “Start of a new chapter of growth” published on October 4th) to expand the scale and scope of HFG’s core business, we raise our TP to 805p (previously 755p). Maintain BUY.
N+1 Singer - Nichols - Diversified strategy continues to help deliver another year of strong growth
10 Jan 17
Nichols has issued a positive year-end trading update with strong progress in evidence across both the UK and International activities resulting in total sales +7.3% (virtually all LFL). This is a very pleasing outcome given the tough trading environment. The business continues to comfortably outperform a difficult UK soft drinks market, led by Vimto and the strategic strengthening of the out-of homes category following the Noisy acquisition. This differentiation theme is further reinforced by the International business continuing to show good momentum, especially Africa. We upgrade our FY16 PBT up by a very modest £0.1m, implying 10% EPS growth, but make no forecast changes for the outer years until we get better clarity on the cost headwinds. The company trades on a cal’17 P/E of 22.7x and 16.0x EV/EBITDA. The shares have been firm ahead of today’s update and are likely to consolidate in the short-term, but we remain positive on a 12m view given the groups dependable growth and international characteristics.
19 Dec 16
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Proud as a Peacock
21 Dec 16
Greencore’s (GNC LN, BUY, 310p) Chief Financial Officer Eoin Tonge presented to Whitman Howard’s equity salesforce yesterday, 20th December 2016. Key messages included a positive outlook for UK Food to Go, sustained momentum within the incumbent US business – notable accounts include 7-Eleven and Starbucks – and positive expectations for the newly acquired Peacock Foods. The company appears well placed to perform positively in FY2017