Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on SARAS SPA. We currently have 10 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Q4 reference refining margin probably similar to Q3 levels
08 Nov 16
Q3 16 comparable EBITDA was €101m (vs. €215m in Q3 15), below consensus expectations (but €30m is postponed to Q4 due to contango transactions). By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA was €40m (-75% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was at $2.0/bbl (vs. $4.8/bbl in Q3 15 and $2.6/bbl in Q2 16). The refinery run at 26.3mbbl (vs. 26.8mbbl in Q3 15). Saras’ additional margin was $2.5/bbl (vs. $3.8/bbl in Q3 15 and $4.6/bbl in Q2 16); 2) Marketing was in positive territory, benefiting from typical seasonality, with comparable EBITDA at €5m (vs. €6.1m in Q3 15); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA at €53m (-2% yoy), with the IGCC plant running at full capacity (1,239TWh vs. 1,150TWh in Q3 15). The adj. net income came in at €26m (vs. €110m in Q3 15).
Crack spreads to stay under pressure in H2 16
01 Aug 16
Q2 16 comparable EBITDA came in at €134m (-14% yoy), in line with consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA was €78m (-60% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was $2.6/bbl (vs. $4.1/bbl in Q2 15 and $3.6/bbl in Q1 16). The refinery ran at 23.4mbbl (vs. 27.1 mbbl in Q2 15) due to maintenance on the distillation units (which were absent in Q2 15). Saras’ additional margin stood at $4.6/bbl (vs. $6.4/bbl in Q2 15 and $4.0/bbl in Q1 16); 2) Marketing showed a small loss at the comparable EBITDA level (-€0.5m, vs. -€3.2m in Q2 15); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA was €52m (-7% yoy), largely due to the lower CIP6/92 tariff. The IGCC plant’s output was a smooth 1.241TWh (as in Q2 15). Adjusted net income was €50m (-62% yoy), slightly above estimates.
Iranian crudes rejoining the feedstock pool
13 May 16
Q1 16 comparable EBITDA was at €124m (-14% yoy), above expectations. By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA came in at €72m (-14% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was at $3.6/bbl (vs. $4.0/bbl in Q1 15 and $3.1/bbl in Q4 15). The refinery ran at 21.0mbbl (vs. 27.0mbbl in Q1 15). Saras’ additional margin stood at $4.0/bbl (vs. $2.0/bbl in Q1 15 and $5.5/bbl in Q4 15); 2) Marketing gave a negative contribution to the comparable EBITDA (-€3m, vs. -€1m in Q1 15); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA at €46m (-14% yoy). The IGCC plant’s output was 0.863TWh (-15% yoy) due to the scheduled maintenance. The adj. net income was €40m (-26% yoy), above estimates. The reference margin (EMC) is $4.1/bbl qtd.
Guidance for 2016: group EBITDA in line with business plan
29 Feb 16
Q4 15 results: comp. EBITDA was €130m (+23% yoy), slightly below consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA came in at €76m (vs. €11m in Q4 14). The EMC benchmark margin was $3.1/bbl (vs. $0.9/bbl in Q4 14 and $4.8/bbl in the strong Q3 15). The refinery ran at 25.3mbbl (+10% yoy). Saras’ additional margin was $3.5/bbl (vs. $2.0/bbl in Q4 14 and $3.8/bbl in Q3 15); 2) Marketing: contribution to the comparable EBITDA was nil (vs. €2m in Q4 14). During 2015, demand grew by 3.6% in Italy and was flattish in Spain (-0.3%); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA at €47m (-46% yoy). The IGCC plant’s output was 1.042TWh (-2% yoy), and the power tariff declined by 47% due to the equalisation process. The adjusted net income was at €30m (+19% yoy, consensus at €48m). +Outlook 2016+ Group EBITDA in line with the business plan (€680m): - availability of cheap crude oils should increase; - global demand growth expected to continue in 2016 (IEA forecast: +1.2 mbpd), driven by gasoline, where demand for high-octane should pick up in spring; - maintenance (mostly done in Q1, with some to come in Q2 and Q4) should have a €52-65m impact on refining's 2016 EBITDA. Production at 107-109mbbl. Additional margin at $4/bbl on average; - capex at €155m. The reference margin (EMC) is $4.1/bbl qtd.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
06 Dec 16
Transglobe Energy (TGL CN); BUY, C$5.25: Homeward bound… back to Canada | Great Eastern Energy Corporation (GEEC LN) (not covered): Reserves update in India | BP (BP LN) (not covered): Acquiring interest in Tangguh in Indonesia | Exillon Energy (EXI LN) (not covered): Production update in Russia | Genel Energy (GENL LN); SPECULATIVE BUY, £2.60: Receipt of payment for Taq Taq export in Kurdistan | ExxonMobil (XOM US) (not covered): Relinquishing blocks in Kurdistan
16 Jan 17
We take a look at the rankings of the various countries in Africa that have a significant exposure to mining. We take the Transparency International corruption rankings as our starting point and modify these for exceptional geology and for current UK government travel warnings. Ghana, Botswana and Namibia come out as our top three, with Eritrea, Kenya and Zimbabwe at the bottom of our rankings.
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
19 Jan 17
Aggregated Micro Power* (AMPH): Funding for first peaking power plant project (CORP) | The Mission Marketing Group* (TMMG): Positive trading update (CORP) | Cello (CLL): Increasingly backed by, and leveraging, technology (BUY) | 4imprint (FOUR): Growth backed by strong cash flow continues (BUY) | Allergy Therapeutics (AGY): Positive trading update and market share gains drive upgrades (BUY) | Shanta Gold (SHG): Q4 operating results (BUY) | Sound Energy (SOU): Tendrara extended well test result (BUY) | Revolution Bars (RBG): Price target increase (BUY)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.