Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on SARAS SPA. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Upbeat 2017-20 outlook
27 Feb 17
The Q4 16 comparable EBITDA was €148m (vs. €130m in Q4 15), slightly above consensus estimates. By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA was €91m (+20% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was at $3.5/bbl (vs. $3.1/bbl in Q4 15 and $2.0/bbl in Q3 16). The refinery run was 23.9mbbl (vs. 25.3mbbl in Q4 15) due the unplanned maintenance at the catalytic reforming unit in December. Saras’ additional margin was $4.0/bbl (vs. $3.5/bbl in Q4 15 and $2.5/bbl in Q3 16); 2) Marketing contributed €2m (vs. nil in Q4 15), with a decline in volume in Italy (-15% yoy) and a jump in Spain (+41% yoy), capturing the strong wholesale margins there; 3) Power Generation: EBITDA at €45m (-4% yoy); the power plant run at full capacity (1.24TWh vs. 1.04TWh in Q4 15). Guidance on 2017 EBITDA was for around €480m (vs. €507m in 2016), broadly in line with consensus but above our estimate: - Refining: reference margin at $2.0-2.5/bbl, premium at $3.5/bbl (increasing to c. $4/bbl in 2020); - Power generation at c. €200m; - Marketing at c. €10m; - Wind at €20-25m in 2017 (€5-10m during 2018-2020). The adjusted net income came in at €53m (vs. €30m in Q4 15), in line with expectations.
Q4 reference refining margin probably similar to Q3 levels
08 Nov 16
Q3 16 comparable EBITDA was €101m (vs. €215m in Q3 15), below consensus expectations (but €30m is postponed to Q4 due to contango transactions). By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA was €40m (-75% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was at $2.0/bbl (vs. $4.8/bbl in Q3 15 and $2.6/bbl in Q2 16). The refinery run at 26.3mbbl (vs. 26.8mbbl in Q3 15). Saras’ additional margin was $2.5/bbl (vs. $3.8/bbl in Q3 15 and $4.6/bbl in Q2 16); 2) Marketing was in positive territory, benefiting from typical seasonality, with comparable EBITDA at €5m (vs. €6.1m in Q3 15); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA at €53m (-2% yoy), with the IGCC plant running at full capacity (1,239TWh vs. 1,150TWh in Q3 15). The adj. net income came in at €26m (vs. €110m in Q3 15).
Crack spreads to stay under pressure in H2 16
01 Aug 16
Q2 16 comparable EBITDA came in at €134m (-14% yoy), in line with consensus expectations. By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA was €78m (-60% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was $2.6/bbl (vs. $4.1/bbl in Q2 15 and $3.6/bbl in Q1 16). The refinery ran at 23.4mbbl (vs. 27.1 mbbl in Q2 15) due to maintenance on the distillation units (which were absent in Q2 15). Saras’ additional margin stood at $4.6/bbl (vs. $6.4/bbl in Q2 15 and $4.0/bbl in Q1 16); 2) Marketing showed a small loss at the comparable EBITDA level (-€0.5m, vs. -€3.2m in Q2 15); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA was €52m (-7% yoy), largely due to the lower CIP6/92 tariff. The IGCC plant’s output was a smooth 1.241TWh (as in Q2 15). Adjusted net income was €50m (-62% yoy), slightly above estimates.
Iranian crudes rejoining the feedstock pool
13 May 16
Q1 16 comparable EBITDA was at €124m (-14% yoy), above expectations. By division: 1) Refining comparable EBITDA came in at €72m (-14% yoy). The EMC benchmark margin was at $3.6/bbl (vs. $4.0/bbl in Q1 15 and $3.1/bbl in Q4 15). The refinery ran at 21.0mbbl (vs. 27.0mbbl in Q1 15). Saras’ additional margin stood at $4.0/bbl (vs. $2.0/bbl in Q1 15 and $5.5/bbl in Q4 15); 2) Marketing gave a negative contribution to the comparable EBITDA (-€3m, vs. -€1m in Q1 15); 3) Power Generation: EBITDA at €46m (-14% yoy). The IGCC plant’s output was 0.863TWh (-15% yoy) due to the scheduled maintenance. The adj. net income was €40m (-26% yoy), above estimates. The reference margin (EMC) is $4.1/bbl qtd.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Mar 17
Pacific Exploration & Production1,6 (PEN CN); BUY, C$72.00: 4Q16 results and improving outlook | Serinus Energy (SEN CN)1, 3; Speculative Buy, C$0.65: FY16 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): Final terms of a previously announced proposed capital restructuring | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): HOLD, £3.10: Right Issue at a discount & CNOOC exercises pre-emption rights in Uganda
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.
South Disouq spuds
20 Mar 17
SDX Energy announced this morning that it has spudded the South Disouq (SD-1X) well in Egypt, targeting gas and oil across a number of intervals. This is a high impact event for SDX Energy, as current company 2P reserves of 4.7mmboe (post acquisition) would be dwarfed by success at South Disouq (we model a 65mmboe field of which SDX holds 55% WI), which could be developed quickly due to existing pipeline infrastructure passing through the block. Our valuation for South Disouq is 6.8p/share, although on success we would expect notable de-risking. Our core NAV is 42p with a full NAV (including South Disouq) of 57p/share. The well is due to take 30-45 days, so we would expect a result in mid late April.