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POLIGRAFICI EDITORIALE SPA
POLIGRAFICI EDITORIALE SPA
06 Dec 16
600 Group* (SIXH): Interim results: order book showing signs of improvement (CORP) | Real Good Food* (RGD): Commodity volatility impacts numbers (CORP) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): .vip goes live in China (CORP | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interims (CORP) | iomart* (IOM): Quality business as usual (CORP) | Fulcrum (FCRM): Upgrades continue (BUY)
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-12-2016
09 Dec 16
This morning’s AGM Statement confirms that trading in the first four months of the year to 31st October was in line with expectations. Revenue was slightly above the prior year period and cash collection has remained strong. The Group has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a progressive dividend policy. The statement is encouraging and we therefore leave our forecasts unchanged. We note the attractions of a 5% dividend yield and consider the shares inexpensive at 4.5x FY’17 EV/EBITDA.
Zwillenberg moves his first chess piece
09 Dec 16
New CEO Paul Zwillenberg has followed up swiftly on the strategy update of a week ago with his opening move: cutting DMGT’s stake in Euromoney from 67% to 49% via a placing and buyback by Euromoney. Chess players might see this as something of a queen’s gambit, sacrificing something upfront (EPS dilution of c7%, c2% reduction to SOTP, significant reduction in reported FCF) in exchange for increased future financial flexibility (both for DMGT and Euromoney). We see this as a sound move strategically. Even so, we move back from Buy to Hold, reflecting the recent rally in the shares, a valuation no longer obviously cheap relative to peers (just under 15x calendar 17E EPS following this deal), plus lower confidence on long term growth prospects for the portfolio. Near term we see better value in a DMGT “synthetic” (one third each INF/ASCL/ITV) offering similar macro-exposures at a lower multiple (under 13x EPS).
Leveraging brands and data
24 Nov 16
Future is building and widening its revenue streams based on strong global brands and on a scalable delivery platform. Growth of revenues in categories such as eCommerce, events and digital advertising resulted in broadly maintained group FY16 revenues, while the margin has started to build, helped by operating leverage. The Imagine purchase, post year-end, brings further scale and efficiency. The lengthening record of delivery against expectations and the premium projected earnings growth are making the multiple increasingly attractive.