Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on EXPERT SYSTEM SPA. We currently have 3 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Research reports on
EXPERT SYSTEM SPA
EXPERT SYSTEM SPA
Building the foundations for growth
17 Nov 16
The focus on integrating the TEMIS acquisition slowed the pace of customer wins in H116, resulting in a dip in revenues and EBITDA. With this integration largely complete, we expect a better rate of new business wins in H216. We have reduced our forecasts to reflect H1 performance and incorporated the recent fund-raising. The company continues to focus on evolving the product, developing indirect sales channels and building the business in the US.
Investing in the international opportunity
30 Jun 16
Expert System’s 2015 acquisition of TEMIS has put it in a strong position to leverage its award-winning cognitive technology across a much larger global footprint in the text analytics market (expected to reach $6.5bn by 2020). It has extended its strategic partnerships, including becoming a Google Premier Technology Partner and developing its relationships with system integrators. Its impressive client base includes Eli Lilly, Thomson Reuters, UniCredit, Shell, and a number of national security agencies. Our base case DCF suggests a share valuation of €2.78, while recent fund-raising deals in the sector suggest the potential for a higher value.
Leveraging Cogito technology internationally
17 Dec 15
Expert System is transitioning from being largely Italy-facing into a truly international business with operations in the US, UK, France and Germany. The company estimates that the TEMIS acquisition (completed in September) will increase foreign exposure from 11% (H114) to 65% (H115 pro forma). Based on H115 results, we have reduced our FY15 revenue forecast for Expert System. With the inclusion of TEMIS, we forecast 46% group growth for FY15. We introduce a forecast for FY16 of 52% growth, supported by the recently announced commercial partnerships with Google and Atex, and a full-year contribution from TEMIS.
N+1 Singer - NCC Group - Further issues in Assurance
22 Feb 17
NCC released a trading update yesterday afternoon highlighting further issues in its Assurance division. Sales growth has been lower than expected in all regions, resulting in a significant reduction in full year expectations. We have reduced our EPS forecasts by 25% in FY’17 and 22%/25% in FY’18/’19 respectively. Escrow continues to perform in line with expectations. In response to these issues the Board has announced a strategic review into all of the Assurance businesses. The results of the strategic review are expected to be announced at the FY results in July. With an extended period of uncertainty on the horizon we believe it will be hard for investors to gain confidence in NCC in the short term. That said we see fundamental value in the stock. Escrow is unaffected by this warning and remains an extremely high quality business, which we value at £353m in our SOTP. At the current share price this leaves Assurance valued at c.5x cal’17 EBITDA. While this appears to be an attractive multiple for a rare cybersecurity asset, we would like further clarity on the underlying nature of the current issues, hence our Hold recommendation. Our 138p target price assumes a 12x EBITDA multiple for Assurance but we apply a 20% discount to the group to account for the current uncertainty.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
21 Feb 17
Lighthouse Group* (LGT): Middle Britain growth (CORP) | Utilitywise* (UTW): Double-digit sales growth (CORP) | Trakm8* (TRAK): Earnings expectations cut again (CORP) | dotDigital* (DOTC): Myriad growth opportunities (CORP) | Artilium* (ARTA): Five-year Telenet deal secured and prepaid (CORP) | Netcall* (NET): Cloud investment pays off (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - New quality style screen + 11 quality focus stocks
09 Feb 17
We introduce our fourth and final style screen representing “quality”. This screens for stocks with the best combination of high returns on capital/equity, EBIT margins and operating cash-flow conversion rates. These criteria should help us monitor how strong underlying returns translate into share price performance over time and under varying market conditions. The screen selects the “best” 25 stocks from our universe of just over 500 stocks and, as usual, we focus on a shorter list of stocks we cover or otherwise know and believe to be particularly interesting. We provide brief investment summaries on these focus stocks on pages 4 – 9. We will monitor performance and refresh the screen in approximately 3-4 months time.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 22-02-2017
22 Feb 17
CORETX (COR LN) Contract wins and new Lifestyle facility | Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) Solid Q1 trading plus earnings enhancing acquisition of StingRay Optics | NCC Group (NCC LN) Further issues in Assurance | PCI-PAL (PCIP LN) Strong H1 underpins positive outlook | UBM (UBM LN) Results | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Phase IIa RPL554 add-on trial to tiotropium commenced