Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ATLANTIA SPA. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Strong set of full-year results
13 Mar 17
Atlantia released a very good set of full-year results, marked by a good performance of the toll road business in Italy, Poland and Chile, a solid cash generation and a good start to 2017. Results For the full year: Revenue was €5,484m, up 3% yoy, in line with consensus (€5,498m). EBITDA reached €3,378m, up 6% yoy, in line with consensus (€3,400m). EBIT was €2,315m, up 5% yoy and 1.8% above the €2,273m consensus. Net attributable income reached €1,122m, up 32% yoy (+10% lfl), c.10% above consensus. The board proposed a €0.97 total dividend for 2016, in line with market expectations. At 31 December 2016, net debt stood at €11,677m, up €1,290m yoy, mostly reflecting the acquisition of the Nice airport in France (ACA). Excluding this (ACA’s contribution to the group’s EBITDA started on 1 January 2017), net debt represented 3.1x EBITDA, down from 3.3x a year earlier. Guidance For 2017, management sees: An improvement in the group’s earnings. Traffic growth in all regions except Brazil, although ytd traffic there was broadly flat, according to management. A continuing 10% growth in dividend, over “a good number of years”. Recent developments Management confirmed that the sale of a 15% stake in ASPI was on track and expects the final binding offer to be announced at end-March/mid-April this year. It also reported a probable sale of a 15% stake in ACA, to be confirmed in the coming weeks or months.
Good set of 9m results.
14 Nov 16
Results Total group revenue reached €4,129m, up 3% during the first nine months, supported by a strong performance in Toll roads (+6%) and airports (+12%). Group EBITDA was up 6%, at €2,640m, while net profit grew 8%, at €813m. EBIT was down by 5%, mostly reflecting a €149m charge related to the adjustment to the present value of the provisions following the significant decline in the related interest rates during the period. Operating cash flow totalled €1,836m, up 14% on a reported basis and 6% on a lfl basis. Net attributable profit was up 8%, as 2015 financial expenses included €185m of negative one-offs which eased the comparison. At 30 September, net debt stood at €10,189m (down c.€200m ytd) and cash amounted to €4,927m. Capex reached €998m in the period, in line with last year’s (€999m). Guidance The outlook remains unchanged. The company expects consolidated gross operating profit to register an “overall improvement”. Recent developments The company confirmed the acquisition of the Nice airport system in the South of France, which was already announced on 9 November. The acquisition of the 64% stake has been made through the Azzurra Aeroporti Srl SPV, 65% owned by Atlantia. The consideration amounts to c.€1.3bn and has been financed with a five-year acquisition financing facility of €653m obtained by the SPV.
International acceleration, sale of a 15% stake in ASPI
20 Oct 16
Atlantia’s CEO, Giovanni Castellucci, was in London to give a strategy update and present the new 2020 targets. New structure The CEO presented the group’s new structure which, in 2017, will result in an organisation with four main divisions focusing on the following businesses: Italian motorways, led by Autostrade per l’Italia (ASPI), which will have the role of operating parent and will continue to hold the controlling interests of the group’s other Italian motorway operators. Overseas motorways, which today includes the investments in Grupo Costanera and Los Lagos in Chile, Atlantia Bertin Concessoes in Brazil and Stalexport in Poland, control of which will be transferred from Autostrade per l’Italia to Atlantia. Airports, led by Aeroporti di Roma (ADR) and Aéroports de la Côte d’Azur (ACA), following the French government’s provisional selection of the consortium in which Atlantia has a 75% stake as the operator’s purchaser, following the government’s decision to proceed with its privatisation. Other related businesses, which, in addition to Pavimental and Spea Engineering, will also include Telepass and ETC, control of which will be transferred from Autostrade per l’Italia to Atlantia, with the aim of boosting promotion of the group’s automated payment solutions for transport in international markets. Source: Company’s presentation.
July-August 2016 traffic on Italian networks confirms H1 16 trend
07 Sep 16
July-August 2016 traffic on Italian networks operated by Atlantia was up by 2.9% (km travelled vs July-August 2015) of which LV +2.9% and HV +2.3%. January-August 2016 traffic up is 3.5% vs + 3.0% recorded in the 12 months of 2015.
H1 16 positive traffic trend except in Brazil, Q2 16 traffic slowdown, negative forex effect
05 Aug 16
Atlantia’s Italian motorways network: traffic +3.8% (+3% after stripping out the leap year effect); LV +3.6%; HV +5.1%). Annual toll increase was 1.09% from 01/01/2016. Revenue +1% (+3% lfl) and EBITDA +1% (+3% lfl). The group’s overseas motorways network: traffic +1.9% overall (+1.4% after stripping out the leap year effect) with +5.6% in Chile, +12.1% in Poland and -2.4% in Brazil. Revenue (€255m; -9%) and EBITDA (€188m; -10%; +4% at cc) are down due to the poor performance in Brazil’s EBITDA (€76m; -€32m; -30%; -11% at cc) due to maintenance and resurfacing work, a 2.4% reduction in traffic and the depreciation in the Brazilian real. Chile and Poland’s EBITDA were up by a respective +14% and +25% (at cc +23% and + 13% respectively). Aeroporti di Roma: traffic +2.8% (+2.3% after stripping out the leap year effect). Revenue (€399m) and EBITDA (€230m) were up 8% translating growth in traffic and tariff increases. Consolidated revenue (€2,566m; +€71m) was up +3% despite the negative forex impact of €40m. Consolidated EBITDA (€1,578m; €+60m) was up +4% (+€81m but +5% lfl). H1 16 reported EBIT and net profit are barely comparable to H1 15 due to the provisions for the repair and replacement of motorway infrastructure and the provisions for the refurbishment of airport infrastructure which reflect charges of €112m following an adjustment to the present value of the provisions due to the significant decline in the related interest rates (vs H1 15 income of €67m due to increases in the matching interest rates). D&A and impairments were broadly in line with H1 15. Consolidated EBIT €965m is down by €110m (-10%) after provisions of €159m). Financial expenses are down by €195m to €251m because they don’t reflect the complex non-cash financial expenses and non-recurrent financial expenses in H1 15. Reported net attributable profit (€413m) is up €36m (10%; +5% lfl). Capex was €566m (-14%), of which €311m in Italian motorways (-€134m due to the opening of Variante di Calico). Group net debt at 30/06/2016: €10,191m (+€104m compared with 31/12/2015) Atlantia’s management expects an overall improvement in the consolidated operating result for the current year.
H1 16 traffic release translates slowdown of traffic in Q2 16
06 Jul 16
- H1 16 Atlantia Italian motorways network: traffic +3.7% and c.3.2% lfl after stripping out the leap year effect. Q1 16 traffic was up +7.2% and +4.2% lfl - the group’s overseas motorways traffic numbers not yet released - Aeroporti di Roma: passenger traffic +2.8% (vs 7.2% in H1 15) and c.+2.3% lfl after stripping out the leap year effect. Q1 16 traffic was up +4%
The tide is turning
20 Apr 17
Any investor worth their salt knows it is impossible to precisely call a bottom in a particular stock. For Gattaca, though, we believe this moment has now passed given the compelling valuation (6.9x EV/EBIT vs 9.8x sector average), attractive 9.8% unlevered cashflow yield and constructive secular trends supporting its specialist markets. Sure, Net Fee Income (NFI) like-for-likes (LFL) have fallen of late, yet equally there are now early indications that organic growth may soon turn positive.
19 Apr 17
We take a look at the supply and demand dynamics of the world’s largest diamonds. Less than 200 very large (>200 carat) gem quality diamonds have ever been found, yet 23 of these have been found in the past three years. This dramatic increase is being driven by a combination of the rapid increase in the number of billionaires and hence price and demand, combined with technological developments that have improved large diamond recovery and a certain amount of geological good luck.
19 Apr 17
Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Beats demanding growth and profit forecasts (CORP) | Frontier Developments* (FDEV): Steaming ahead (CORP) | Tax Systems* (TAX): Right place, right time (CORP) | Acal (ACL): Stronger H2 and brighter outlook (BUY) | Fenner (FENR): Interim results signal upgrades (BUY) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): US and Europe domain sales (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Growth style screen revamp and 10 focus stocks
06 Apr 17
We have reviewed the performance of our consistent growth screen since the previous refresh on 27 September 2016 and revamped the selection parameters to focus more on forecast sales and EPS growth going forward. In the period under review the consistent growth style screen outperformed the small-cap benchmark by c. 6% and underperformed the microcap index by a similar amount. Interestingly, although growth doesn’t always seem to be defensive as might be expected, however it appears right to buy growth on dips caused by or coincident with wider market volatility. In the new forecast growth screen we take a close look at 10 focus stocks. We will monitor performance and refresh it in three to four months time.