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As anticipated, the third-quarter results showed a decrease from last year, with an EBITDA decline of -14% to €102m. This trend was previously noted in the H1 and was due to reduced market prices across all countries affecting variable sales. However, this was partially mitigated by a 3-point increase in wind load factors in France and Italy during the third quarter. The group slightly raised its guidance, despite having lowered it in the H1.
Companies: ERG S.p.A (ERG:BIT)ERG S.p.A. (ERG:MIL)
AlphaValue
Negatively impacted by unfavourable wind conditions as well as EDP (but without the hydro dams to catch up) and a declining power price environment vs H1 22, ERG revised downwards its EBITDA guidance for 2023 from €500-550m to €480-520m.
ERG beat the consensus with an EBITDA down by 1% at €164m; this was higher than our expectations and those of the consensus at €135-136m. The EBITDA guidance was confirmed in a €500-550m range whilst capex will be €100m higher to €500-600m from €400-500m and the adjusted net debt will up by a similar amount to €1.4-1.5bn.
Despite a 13% drop in adjusted EBITDA to €126m in the last quarter, ERG managed to achieve a significant performance in 2022, and delivered a 10% increase in dividend to €1/share, mainly supported by ongoing asset rotation, thanks to larger installed capacities in a soaring energy price context. Following a 21% rise in installed capacity to €2,944 MW, the group will pursue its installation capacity program (40% organic and 60% M&A operations), mainly supported by Italy, France and the UK.
ERG confirmed the year-on-year increase in revenues for this third quarter, with EBITDA up by 62% to €411m in the 9M2022 period, driven by ongoing support from M&A transactions and organic growth. The group maintained a strong asset rotation system by reinvesting the income from assets in new projects and managed to obtain higher output thanks to a rising number of installed capacities across various geographies, including Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, Poland and France. The group updated it
ERG unveiled a solid set of results, with EBITDA 55% higher than in H1 21 thanks to the contribution of the new capacities commissioned. In total, 445MW were added yoy, which represents 15% of the total operating portfolio expected by the end of 2022. Guidance was subsequently adjusted upward for EBITDA obviously, but also capex and net debt. Overall, the message sent to the market is a positive one. ERG keeps accelerating its profitable growth.
Here we go again. As in early 2021, ERG beat expectations in Q1 and upgraded its guidance by more than 12%. The 70% EBITDA growth was backed by better weather conditions and a higher asset base while net debt decreased significantly thanks to the hydro disposal, paving the way for intense M&A in the coming months. All lights are green.
Erg has confirmed that things have changed. Another beat on these FY21 results maintains the group with its bullish momentum. This is set to last as the 2022 targets are in line with estimates, and visibility is provided through the promising 2026 outlook. The €0.90 dividend per share – a new floor – came also as a positive, above expectations. In the current energy environment, where renewables should play a key role in the European energy transition, the group confirmed its strong positionin
Erg continued in its bullish operational momentum to release better-than-expected 9M 21 figures. EBITDA is up by 10.5% to €400m, mainly driven by high hydro production output. FY21 targets were consequently improved. Investments also clearly increased (3.3x) and the outlook was upgraded, a trend that should strengthen in the coming years after the €1bn hydro disposal to Enel. These positive developments seem already priced in. Our cautiousness on the stock remains.
Erg beat expectations in H1 with a 7% increase in EBITDA, driven by the strong performance in hydro production. Lower D&A and financial charges allowed net profits to soar by 43%. Accordingly, the group upgraded its FY21 guidance, especially for capex, expected to be 55% higher than the previous target. A strong set of results from the Italian group, particularly aggressive and opportunistic. But it remains to be seen whether the trend is sustainable.
Erg’s strong start to the year was more than offset by a very conservative new 2021-25 Business Plan. Indeed, the 3% and 22% increase in EBITDA and group net result, respectively, in Q1 allowed the Italian group to raise its guidance for FY21. On the other side, the €2.1bn in investments by 2025 should bring EBITDA to €550m at the end of the plan, a threshold we expected to reach in 2023. Between conservatism and disappointment, our negative view is confirmed.
While EBITDA at €481m is slightly below expectations, the adjusted group net result of €106m is in line. Globally, figures fell short of the target range but show no structural weaknesses. Capex should increase as investments outside Italy are numerous, but a clearer outlook for the FY21-FY25 period is expected when the Q1 21 results are released.
EBITDA decreased by 4% and came in at €156m. Group net result was broadly flat at €53m. The group suffered from tough comps for Italian wind conditions and overall lower electricity prices, partly offset by the good asset expansion outside Italy (wind production outside Italy was up by 46%). For the rest of the year, investment in solar energy is expected to drive growth. The group confirms its new guidance. No change in our model is expected.
Companies: ERG S.p.A.
EBITDA was €504m and the adjusted group net result €104m, both roughly in line with the consensus. Growth was mainly driven by the new 198MW installed, and the supportive wind conditions. The FY20 EBITDA guidance is €500-520m versus €522m in our model. Overall, even if we will revise our forecast slightly downwards, we confirm our positive view on the stock.
New installed wind capacity and the good performance of the gas division more than offset the unfavourable wind and hydro conditions. In all, EBITDA slightly increased, but the net income was impacted by the higher amortisation. Full-year guidance was confirmed.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ERG S.p.A.. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat
Companies: NextSource Materials Inc
Capital Access Group
Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Cavendish
Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten
Companies: Beowulf Mining PLC
Alternative Resource Capital
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• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril
Companies: SINTANA ENERGY
Auctus Advisors
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Shore Capital
Companies: Ferrexpo plc
Liberum
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SP Angel
Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
WHIreland
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24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: FTC AGL SRT SOU G4M AOM SUP
Hybridan
Adriatic Metals has announced their transition from mining contractor to mining operator at Rupice. The transition is expected to continue to benefit the development and productivity rates being achieved at Rupice mine, as well as result in cost efficiencies and improved HSE standards. The company has also announced a short-term loan facility with Orion of $25m, that is drawable at the option of the company in Q3/4 this year.
Companies: Adriatic Metals Plc Shs Chess Deposit Interests Repr 1 Sh
Tamesis Partners
Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.
Companies: Alien Metals Ltd
I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Zeus Capital
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