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RWE released a strong set of results, ahead of expectations, pushed one more time by the Supply & Trading segment. The group is managing its operations well amidst a difficult environment, thus providing reassuring signals. The only cloud was a €850m write-off related to a Russian hard coal contract. Threats of windfall taxes in Germany seem low risk for now.
Companies: RWE AG
RWE confirmed its FY21 solid results unveiled in mid-February, as well as its guidance for 2022 even if it does not reflect the war in Ukraine yet. More importantly, the group provided visibility on its (relatively low) exposure to Russia and the flexibility of its thermal fleet. Even if liquidity is not a problem yet, this is particularly due to coal plants that should become the group’s new cash cow in 2022. In short: long RWE, but be careful of regulations…
What if the best solution for the energy transition were … nuclear power? Nuke is back at the heart of political debates in the context of the current energy crisis and massive but insufficient investments in renewables. This short review provides an overview of nuclear power in Europe and speculates on options. This ‘nuke optionality’, hinging on a favourable green taxonomy, is a game-changer for EDF, Centrica, Fortum but also Engie, Iberdrola, Enel and EDP.
Mixed half-year figures for the German utility: despite beating analysts’ estimates, RWE’s adjusted EBITDA was down to €1.75bn, declining 4.5% year on year. The drop in EBITDA was mainly due to adverse wind conditions in Europe and to an unprecedented cold snap in Texas during February 2021. However, the company was able to upgrade its FY21 outlook, on the back of an outstanding performance of the Supply & Trading division in H1 21, in which EBITDA jumped +63%.
A difficult but expected quarter for the German utility. Adjusted EBITDA was driven down by 33% mainly due to the sharp impact from the Texas cold snap (€-400m) and adverse wind conditions in Europe. The earnings forecast and dividend policy are, however, confirmed and seem realistic for the full year, despite non-recurring items. The promising outlook for the following years remain constrained by the high exposure to thermal assets. But we’re betting on an accelerated green transition.
RWE published solid full-year results for 2020 that even exceeded the latest guidance given by the group. However, apart from the increase in the dividend, the FY21 guidance is disappointing as EBITDA and net income fall well below the consensus, mainly driven by extra costs due to the cold snap in Texas. In all, we reiterate our negative view on stock.
Good operating results over the first nine months of the year, but mainly backed by the first quarter. The group has confirmed its FY20 guidance and is now targeting the upper end of it. Looking ahead, with 85% of the ytd investments devoted to green activities, the group is well on track to achieve its objectives. In addition, the balance sheet is strong enough to accelerate investments – the group is said to be open to further external growth.
RWE has successfully concluded its capital raising of c.10% of its market cap at a price of €32.55/share, or a 4.9% discount versus the last closing price (18/08/2020). The proceeds will be used to give some flexibility in expanding its renewables activities – as a reminder, the group is targeting a 1GW portfolio (wind + solar) by 2022, implying a capex need of at least €5bn. Operating guidance and dividend policy are unchanged and confirmed.
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 18%, to €1.8bn, but mainly thanks to good weather for offshore wind in Q1 20. Mechanically, EBIT increased by a third, to €1.1bn. In all, it is a good publication, but it only confirms Q1 20, without much new news. Even if the group is well on track to achieve its FY20 and long-term targets, we consider the share to be overvalued.
Good operating figures for its Q1, with EBITDA at €1.3bn, mainly driven by favourable wind conditions. However, this was reduced by losses in the financial asset portfolio and the negative mark-to-market for FX derivatives, consequently net income amounted to €0.6bn. The full-year guidance and the dividend target are confirmed. We will update our model, currently conservative, to adopt a more neutral view.
Having revised its EBITDA and net income guidance upwards, the group was able to reach the top of both. EBITDA came in at €2.1bn and net income was €1.2bn. Growth was driven by the same elements as in the first nine months: one-offs and M&A, which remain in the background given that most of the group’s valuation is based on renewables. The €2.7-3.0bn EBITDA target for FY20 is below our expectations. We confirm our negative view of the stock.
The German government has provided more details on the timing and level of compensation for the accelerated lignite phase-out: the RWE installed capacity of lignite is expected to decrease from 8,720MW at the end of 2019, to 5,900MW in 2022, 3,800MW in 2029 and 0MW in 2038. The compensation over 15 years will be €2.6bn, while the group estimates the overall financial impact to be around €3.5bn.
After the solid Q3, driven by the acquired operations and the good trading performance, and considering the EU green light for the reinstatement of the UK’s capacity market, the group revised upwards its EBITDA guidance, from €1.4-1.7bn to €1.8-2.1bn and its net income one from €0.5-0.8bn to €0.9-1.2bn. On the negative side, pro forma figures for the renewables division are below expectations.
A fairly good set of H1 figures, but much of it comes from the already announced good performance in trading activities. The group tried to be reassuring about the asset swap by affirming that everything is on track. We will slightly increase our target price to reflect the increase in achieved price in FY20, but we will, however, remain on the negative side as most of the positives are already integrated in our target price.
RWE reported a good set of results. The good performance in Trading offset the decline in the European Power segment due to lower volumes and the suspension of the UK capacity market, whereas the Lignite & Nuclear segment remained flat as lower volumes were compensated by higher electricity prices. In all, full-year guidance is confirmed with a dividend target of €0.8.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on RWE AG. We currently have 63 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Volex has issued its year end trading update confirming revenues in excess of $605m and an operating profit in excess of $55m that are ahead of consensus FY22E expectations of $581m and $54.2m respectively. The Group continues to trade strongly whilst effectively managing global supply chain challenges and benefits from its proven ability to pass through inflationary cost increases, albeit with a time lag. Demand increased during the year, in particular in the EV sector where sales almost double
Companies: Volex plc
Seeing Machines has announced that it has been appointed by an existing customer and global Automotive Tier-1 supplier to deliver its FOVIO Driver Monitoring System (DMS) for a leading Japanese carmaker. This contract win, with an initial lifetime value of A$21m, is due to start production in 2025 and marks Seeing Machines' first production Automotive award in Japan bringing the total number of OEMs with which Seeing Machines has won business, to nine. Delivery is via the Company's deeply embedd
Companies: Seeing Machines Limited
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Lift Global Ventures plc to join AQSE Growth Market. The Company's investment strategy is to operate as an enterprise company seeking acquisition or investment opportunities within the financial media and technology industries. Within these broad industries, areas of focus may include: Financial news websites and other forms of “new media”, Investment research providers, Financial PR, IR, design and marketing agencies, Production studios and visual content prov
Companies: BSE CFX DPP EOG SEE SOLI SML
Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news. Intelligent Ultrasound, Inspiration Healthcare, Agronomics, CareTech Holdings, e-therapeutics, ABCAM, EKF Diagnostics, HUTCHMED (China), Benchmark Holdings, Totally, ImmuPharma, Open Orphan, Destiny Pharma, Polarean Imaging, Induction Healthcare.
Companies: ANIC RUA CREO GENI HEIQ IHC IXI IUG OPTI SBTX VAL VLG
Seeing Machines has announced that it has entered into a strategic collaboration with an image-sensor and optical systems design technology company in order to create an anticipated step-change in the performance of cabin-monitoring technology. As part of this it has obtained a world-wide perpetual exclusive licence which applies to both automotive and aviation market sectors, for A$5m payable over three years, in order to access and customise the optical technology to the specialised field of c
Companies: Macfarlane Group PLC
XPD has re-hired Richard Myson as Group CFO to build back the Board and improve financial management, following various recent senior resignations. This is welcome news. Richard previously worked at XPD for 16 years, held numerous senior finance and non-finance positions, and helped steer the Group through the successful IPO in mid-2017. He left XPD in late 2018 but has remained in close contact with the Group. Richard owns c.1.4% of the shares. Further, hiring of a new non-executive chair and C
Companies: Xpediator Plc
Imperial Helium (IHC CN)C; Under review: Merger with Royal Helium to build a material player with discovered resources and huge upside - Imperial Helium is merging with Royal Helium with Imperial Helium shareholders set to hold ~30% of the combined entity. The share exchange ratio suggests a 10% premium to the Imperial Helium share price on the day prior to the announcement. Shareholders will vote on the transaction in June with completion expected in the 2nd half of June. Management, insiders a
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Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news. Agronomics, Eden Research, IXICO, HeiQ, Trellus Health, NetScientific, Circassia, 4basebio, Fusion Antibodies, Surgical Innovations Group, Yourgene Health, Abingdon Health, Verici Dx, Poolbeg Pharma, Omega Diagnostics
Companies: Ilika plc
Although RR has returned to growth in FY21, both sales and profitability have been disappointing. The resignation of Warren East after eight years as CEO will not help the stock, which saw its stock price fall as much as 18% today. The inflation in raw material and energy prices linked to Putin’s declaration of war won’t make the recovery of RR in FY22 any easier.
Companies: Rolls-Royce Holdings plc
Oil closed Friday at a six-week high on signs the market is tightening as members of the European Union moved closer toward banning Russian crude. West Texas Intermediate futures posted its first back-to-back weekly gain in two months. The EU intends to ban Russian crude in six months and oil products by the end of the year to punish Moscow for its war on Ukraine. The bloc has proposed giving Hungary -- which has pushed back against an embargo -- and Slovakia an extra year to comply, people f
Companies: FO 88E CHAR DEC EME GTC TRIN WEN
Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? EnSilica, intends to join AIM. EnSilica is a designer and supplier of mixed signal Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). ASICs are integrated circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help differentiate products through optimised hardware thereby making products smaller, faster, lower power and more
Companies: XTR XLM VRS SUP ROCK SLE SEMP OHG HDD FIH
Companies: Wincanton plc
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