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Acerinox released a solid set of numbers for Q1 22
These were supported by healthy demand and very strong prices, while the Alloys segment is slowly recovering
Net debt is only increasing due to the working capital build-up
Despite the fact we will revise our (too conservative) forecasts upwards, we may not change our target price materially
Companies: Acerinox (ACX:BME)Acerinox SA (ACX:MCE)
The FY21 numbers came in well in line with the street’s and company’s guidance.
The pricing situation has remained good in Q4 and going into FY22 despite the less positive comments on costs (energy and freight), of course if the geopolitical context does not worsen.
Net debt is under control. This comes despite a €460m increase in working capital and allows for a significant return to shareholders.
No big change to our numbers to be expected after this release.
The nine months results came in above expectations.
This was true for both the Stainless Steel and High-Performance Alloys divisions.
The outlook released by the group is very supportive for Q4 21 and possibly Q1 22.
We will revise our numbers upwards.
The Q1 21 results were excellent with the positive trend witnessed since H2 20 continuing in Q2
The final demand and the rebuilding of inventories explain this strong upward trend
Anti-dumping measures, in both the US and Europe, supported this trend
Margins (13% at EBITDA level in Q2, 14% in Stainless) not seen since 2006
The outlook (at least for Q3) is very supportive
Despite the lack of visibility after Q3, we will upgrade forecasts and target price
Q1 results came in above expectations
The stainless steel segment was very supportive
The Alloys segment was still underperforming despite an improving order-book
The group’s margins were close to historical highs
We will fine-tune our numbers after this positive release
FY20 results came in above expectations
The integration of VDM seems to be going alright
The outlook for Q1 21 is rather promising
We will upgrade our numbers and target price
Q320 again showed the resilience of the group
However, High Performance Alloys remained weak
Q4 set to be of the same vein as Q3
No major changes to our numbers
Companies: Acerinox SA
H1 20 results were almost stable on last year’s
Even if the group benefits from the first consolidation of VDM, the group’s performance was very good in Q2 given the context
The outlook calls for a stable situation vs Q2
The group seems on track to reach our numbers for the current year
FY19 numbers were in line with impairments, inventory write-downs and exceptional items leading to lower than expected net results
Net debt is well under control, a good piece of news ahead of the VDM acquisition
The latter will be the main earnings growth driver in the short term, we believe
The outlook looks decent, with no real comment so far on the Coronavirus outbreak
Q3 19 came in line and was in fact slightly higher than the group’s own guidance.
Margins thus remained rather healthy given the context, showing the efforts made on the cost side.
Cash flow was pleasing and deleveraging is still on the cards.
Europe was still suffering (imports and economic slowdown) but the US was supportive.
Q4 should be similar to Q3, while visibility is low on 2020.
We will marginally adjust our numbers to the downside.
H1 19 were decent, with an (expected) improvement in Q2 vs Q1 Demand is still strong in the US, while Europe is still weakish No big changes in operating conditions to be expected in Q3 We will fine-tune our numbers to the downside
- Q1 19 OK, at lower levels than last year
- The full impact of EU measures not felt yet on the P&L
- Inventories in the US and Europe said to be “normalising”
- A reasonable level of optimism from management
- Probably no major change to our numbers/valuation
Acerinox released FY18 results. Sales reached €5,011m (+8.3%), EBITDA €480m (-1.8%), EBIT €312m (-1.8%), and the net result €237m (+1.3%). Net debt at the end of FY18 was €552m vs. €609m in FY17 and €620m a year earlier. A dividend of €0.50 will be proposed (vs. 0.45). In terms of outlook, the group expects Q1 EBITDA to be better than Q4 (when it reached €58m), indicating that safeguard measures in Europe are working properly and imports have fallen in January. That said, a real improvement in t
Q3 18 results. Net sales reached €1,284m (+20.3% yoy), EBITDA €154m (vs €53m) EBIT €112m (vs €12.7m) and the net result €83m (vs €6.6m). Net debt at the end of Q3 18 totaled €666m vs €537m in Q2 and €609m at the end of FY17. According to the group, macroeconomic uncertainties and a decline in raw material prices will lead to a decline in activity for Q4.
Acerinox released H1 18 results. Net sales reached €2,588m (+5.9% yoy), EBITDA €317m (-15.4%), EBIT €227m (-19.1%) and the net result €138m (-8.4%). Net debt at the end of H1 18 totalled €537m vs €667m in Q1, €609m at the end of FY17 and €600m a year ago. According to the group, Q2 will reflect “the high demand existing in all the markets, encouraged by the rises in nickel and ferrochrome prices”. Despite the world situation described as “complex”, the strength in the US market should enable t
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Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Arc has recently signed an agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) on a JV for its highly prospective Zambian licences (subject to final due diligence). The deal sees (3) main staged payments of up to $74m in the ground and $14.5m to Arc (by end of stage 1) and significantly leaving Arc with a 30% stake in the project. On a detailed reflection over the deal we want to reiterate how positive we see this is for Arc: i) Arc could never have raised this sort of capital to bring exp
Companies: ARC Minerals Limited
Jubilee today provides an operational update on the ongoing commissioning at the new Inyoni chrome and PGM plants with Jubilee building up to steady state production for nameplate capacity of 1.2Mt chrome concentrate and 44koz PGM production per year. Remember processing chrome creates the upgraded PGM tailings for Jubilee to recover the PGMs (Jubilee being paid a small margin to preconcentrate its own feed) and with the expanded Inyoni there is no need to share the PGM revenues via a JV struct
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Jubilee today confirms the appointment of a new Chairman to take over from Colin Bird (who set up the company) and who will we believe have the experience to take them to the next stage. The stage has been set by the outgoing Chairman with Manuel Lino Silva de Sousa Oliveira (Ollie) appointed as independent non-executive director and Chairman to help realise the next moves. He brings with him a wealth of experience with senior executive positions within the Anglo-American Group and at De Beers
Last week Tamesis visited a number of Tharisa PLC's assets including the Tharisa Mine and Arxo Metals Beneficiation Site (AMBS) in South Africa and the Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe. Overall it was an extremely well received trip with evidence of efficiency improvements at the Tharisa mine, unexpected cash generation from the Vulcan Plant, further cash from the Salene Chrome Plant and, it also impressed on us that the Zimbabwe risk to the build out of Karo is lower than the market perhaps th
Companies: Tharisa Plc
Pantheon Resources announced that it has contracted a rig (the Nabors 105AC) to the Alkaid #2 well, which the company indicated is scheduled to spud in July 2022. The company indicated that if the well is successful, Pantheon Resources will commence a long-term production test and truck and sell the produced oil to a nearby North Slope facility.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Chariot has conditionally raised gross proceeds of US$25.5m (before costs), providing the Company with sufficient funds to advance the Anchois Gas Development towards a Final Investment Decision (FID) and to progress its renewable power pipeline. The placing was significantly oversubscribed, highlighting the market's confidence in Chariot's business model and its management team. We maintain our price target at 51p, with the recent rise in the European gas price forward curve offsetting the dilu
Companies: Chariot Limited
A pre-feasibility study for the c10 GW green hydrogen project named “Project Nour” has confirmed that Mauritania is exceptionally well-placed for green hydrogen due its world class solar and wind resources, with the project having the potential to produce some of the cheapest green hydrogen in the world. With up to 10GW of electrolysis installed, Project Nour has the potential to become one of the largest green hydrogen projects globally by 2030. Geographically proximal to the European markets,
Cornish Metals Inc (“Cornish”) has announced the closing of a £25m strategic investment by Vision Blue Resources (“VBR”) and £15.5m from a private placing to existing and new UK institutional investors as well as a subscription by existing Canadian investors and eligible private investors. The proceeds will be used to advance South Crofty to Feasibility whilst dewatering the mine over a 30-month period and ultimately, subject to funding, commence mining in two years’ time.
Companies: Cornish Metals Inc.
RCE-2 well flow test result
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Diversified has announced the acquisition of a portfolio of East Texas upstream assets and related facilities from a private seller for US$50m – an attractive 1.4x multiple based on the NTM adjusted EBITDA of US$35m and before any potential synergies. At US$50m, the net purchase price approximates a >PV40 valuation at the effective date and represents an attractive discount of c51% to the estimated PV10 using the NYMEX strip as of the 19 April 2022. The assets include PDP reserves of 18mmboe (11
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
ARC has announced it has signed a JV agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) over its Zambian licences. This has long been in the offing and we view the terms as advantageous to Arc and a validation of the prospectivity that it (and we) see in its licences. The headline JV payments are staged but could ultimately lead to Anglo owning 70% of the licences, by investing $74m in exploration and paying Arc $14.5m. The licences will be held under a JV which will have an initial ow
*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP
Dish of the day
EnSilica (ENSI.L), has join AIM. EnSilica provides an end-to-end service for the design and supply of mixed signal ASICs, outsourcing certain elements such as the wafer fabrication of the manufacturing and packaging to third parties - otherwise known as a Fabless Semiconductor Model. ASICs are Integrated Circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help
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