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The Q3 23 results showed a marked slowdown vs Q3 22 and, to a lesser extent, sequentially. The stainless segment was to blame, while High-Performance Alloys continued to perform reasonably well. in a context of lower sales, the cash generation was solid and came in better than expected, which further improved the balance-sheet. We will adjust our numbers and target price downwards but see no real drama in these results.
Companies: Acerinox (ACX:BME)Acerinox SA (ACX:MCE)
AlphaValue
Acerinox released an unsurprising set of results. Europe was still weak, while the US did much better, as expected too. The High-Performance Alloys division is doing well. Its different cyclicality is a clear plus for the group. We will not change our numbers much after the release.
Acerinox released a very decent and consensus-beating set of results for Q1 23. Despite the headwinds in stainless in Europe, the group’s geographic balance has helped it improve its results significantly vs Q4 23, thanks to the US and to the smaller Performance Alloys segment. We will upgrade our forecasts at least for the current year, despite the fact we are rather at the high-end of expectations.
Similarly to what peers Aperam and Outokumpu had already communicated, Acerinox posted a very strong performance in FY22, even if there was a significant slow down in Q4. For sure, the current year is likely to be less spectacular, even if no disaster is in sight. We had already factored in this likely scenario looking forward and will not change our numbers and target price materially after this release.
Acerinox released a decent set of Q3 numbers in the current circumstances. Margins (EBITDA) remained in double-digit territory despite higher energy prices and softer demand. The group is guiding for a lower EBITDA in Q4 vs Q3, which is no real surprise. We will revise our estimates a tick down after these numbers. The valuation however remains undemanding.
Acerinox released a solid set of numbers for Q1 22 These were supported by healthy demand and very strong prices, while the Alloys segment is slowly recovering Net debt is only increasing due to the working capital build-up Despite the fact we will revise our (too conservative) forecasts upwards, we may not change our target price materially
The FY21 numbers came in well in line with the street’s and company’s guidance. The pricing situation has remained good in Q4 and going into FY22 despite the less positive comments on costs (energy and freight), of course if the geopolitical context does not worsen. Net debt is under control. This comes despite a €460m increase in working capital and allows for a significant return to shareholders. No big change to our numbers to be expected after this release.
The nine months results came in above expectations. This was true for both the Stainless Steel and High-Performance Alloys divisions. The outlook released by the group is very supportive for Q4 21 and possibly Q1 22. We will revise our numbers upwards.
The Q1 21 results were excellent with the positive trend witnessed since H2 20 continuing in Q2 The final demand and the rebuilding of inventories explain this strong upward trend Anti-dumping measures, in both the US and Europe, supported this trend Margins (13% at EBITDA level in Q2, 14% in Stainless) not seen since 2006 The outlook (at least for Q3) is very supportive Despite the lack of visibility after Q3, we will upgrade forecasts and target price
Q1 results came in above expectations The stainless steel segment was very supportive The Alloys segment was still underperforming despite an improving order-book The group’s margins were close to historical highs We will fine-tune our numbers after this positive release
FY20 results came in above expectations The integration of VDM seems to be going alright The outlook for Q1 21 is rather promising We will upgrade our numbers and target price
Q320 again showed the resilience of the group However, High Performance Alloys remained weak Q4 set to be of the same vein as Q3 No major changes to our numbers
Companies: Acerinox SA
H1 20 results were almost stable on last year’s Even if the group benefits from the first consolidation of VDM, the group’s performance was very good in Q2 given the context The outlook calls for a stable situation vs Q2 The group seems on track to reach our numbers for the current year
FY19 numbers were in line with impairments, inventory write-downs and exceptional items leading to lower than expected net results Net debt is well under control, a good piece of news ahead of the VDM acquisition The latter will be the main earnings growth driver in the short term, we believe The outlook looks decent, with no real comment so far on the Coronavirus outbreak
Q3 19 came in line and was in fact slightly higher than the group’s own guidance. Margins thus remained rather healthy given the context, showing the efforts made on the cost side. Cash flow was pleasing and deleveraging is still on the cards. Europe was still suffering (imports and economic slowdown) but the US was supportive. Q4 should be similar to Q3, while visibility is low on 2020. We will marginally adjust our numbers to the downside.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Acerinox SA. We currently have 0 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.
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Zeus Capital
i3 Energy has announced that it has refinanced its Trafigura straight-line amortising facility with a traditional RBL facility provided by a Canadian chartered bank. We believe that i3 Energy's shareholders stand to benefit considerably from the restructured balance sheet because it is significantly better adapted to the company's needs, in our opinion. We believe the new RBL facility will free funds for growth and provide better long-term balance sheet stability, while significantly reducing in
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WHIreland
i3 has announced a refinancing of its C$75m Trafigura debt facility, increasing liquidity for the company to pursue further growth initiatives. i3 has also announced its end 2023 reserves update, showing significant replacement of production during the year.
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Cavendish
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Canaccord Genuity
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Results demonstrate Bretana cash flows that allow growth CAPEX and dividends. PetroTal has produced a solid set of 2023 results. These show the cash flow generating capability of the company’s Bretana field in Peru, which enables PetroTal to both expend growth CAPEX while also making material returns to shareholders.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
The company's business structure is evolving and diversifying into several compelling and complementary businesses. The opportunistic, potential sale of its producing shallow assets would represent a significant change and the company's openness to realise value from that sale speaks to the company's prioritisation of shareholder interests and shareholder value creation. The current year will be significant for many of the company's growth businesses as they establish their first significant com
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Auctus Advisors
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Tennyson Securities
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Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
VSA Capital
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• FY23 production, YE23 net cash and YE23 reserves and resources had been reported previously. • The FY24 production guidance of 21.5-24.5 mbbl/d with US$205-235 mm opex and US$135-155 mm capex has been re-iterated. • Current production continues to be high, with average production for the first half of March of ~23,000 bbl/d, including ~7.9 mbbl/d for Jasmine, 7.2 mbbl/d for Nong Yao, 2.9 bbl/d for Manora and 4.9 mbbl/d for Wassana. Production at Wassana is particularly high. • Valeura will als
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Turner Pope Investments
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