Look at the markets and we''re nearly back to normal; listen to the news and chaos is round the corner. In a world of unease and doubt, at Exane BNP Paribas we are focused on where we can bring clarity: analysing the opportunities tomorrow may bring. Following our major cross-sector reports, Funding Frenzy and One for the Kidz, we introduce a powerful new lens on the future: The Trend Accelerator, a review of how and where COVID has intensified macro pressures. First, our Strategy and Economics teams identify six trends they think should increasingly be influencing your investment decisions. Then our deep bench of top-ranked sector analysts select the stocks they believe can harness the forces at work... and those that could be swept away.
ASML CZB CAP ML GLE SW ERICB NOKIA SBRY TTA LI BIM UCG HMB SAP MKS HMSO DSY STM IFX CPG ITX SAB ACN EQNR ACA JD/ FER CRM DIA WDAY ELIOR BME PYPL
22 Jun 20
We''ll remember our 22nd CEO Conference for two reasons. First, it was the biggest ever: 100 CEOs and 2,100 investors taking over 16,000 seats. The second? No prizes for guessing. Next year we aim to combine our real and virtual worlds, and hope to see you in Paris... or on screen! The most up-to-date view from corporate Europe We''ve condensed and cleanly presented all the highlights from the management presentations. It''s your comprehensive guide to the key takeaways from 124 leading European companies. Who would you most like to sit beside the fireside with? Our most-attended presentation was, as last year, ASML, followed by L''Oreal, Danone, Michelin and Linde. See One for the Kidz for our ten-year view on ASML, L''Oreal, and more. Keynote speakers: a wide-angle view on unprecedented times Laurent Solly (Facebook) outlined his vision of tech opportunities, Joerg Kukies (German Finance Ministry) discussed globalisation and finance and Sir Martin Sorrell (S4 Capital) took the measure of consumer and citizen changes. Megatrends: change is accelerating Attendee after attendee observed that Covid-19 is both leading to transformations and ratcheting up existing trends, notably digitalisation. Watch this space. Good, bad or ugly? The answer was: ''Very good, actually'' If we had one big surprise, it was the number of positive messages. Managements clearly feel they are resilient, can grow and in some cases can acquire weaker rivals. ESG remains at the heart of our collective future Nothing in the current crisis seems to have dented the widespread desire by corporates to ramp up their environmental and social strategies.
ASML BFA LIN EOAN AKZA DSM AC EN BN CAP COD ROG SU HO ERICB BP/ ADEN FGR AI CA BIM ATO MAERSKB ERF CNP GET AAL ENEL MT ELISA FDR DPW NZYMB DEC APD FCX ACA CRDA EZJ DCC ILD EDF ALO ETL AKE FRE GALP FMC AMS EDEN EVK CCH ELIOR AXTA 1COV AMUN
19 Jun 20
ASML: ASML still targets 35 EUV units in 2020 and memory bookings are encouraging | BUY | EUR290(+13%)
ASML - BUY | EUR290(+13%) ASML still targets 35 EUV units in 2020 and memory bookings are encouraging Q1 results at the low end of the updated guidance Memory revenue still weak in Q1 Uncertainties remain as ASML does not provide Q2 guidance… … however, Q1 bookings are encouraging especially in memory
ASML Holding ASM International
15 Apr 20
ASML: Strong ramp of EUV expected in 2021 slightly offset by increase in spending | BUY | EUR290(+7%)
ASML - BUY | EUR290(+7%) Strong ramp of EUV expected in 2021 slightly offset by increase in spending Double-digit growth expected in 2020 Gross margin should not exceed 50% on a full year basis Strong ramp in EUV to weight on FCF in 2020 We maintain our BUY rating and Fair Value at EUR290
23 Jan 20
Q4 19: Memory customers to return in 2020
The Q4 report provided no surprises to justify another rally in the stock. The management gave some positive news regarding a come back of its Memory customers as well as an expected pick up in fab equipment spending in 2020, but we believe that this is already discounted in the stock price. Nonetheless, we remain very positive on the long term outlook for the company which will continue to benefit from the inevitable EUV adoption.
22 Jan 20
ASML: Solid revenue growth offsets by an increase in operating expenses | BUY | EUR290(+7%)
ASML - BUY | EUR290(+7%) Solid revenue growth offsets by an increase in operating expenses Beat on sales offset by higher operating expenses Logic remains strong with first sign of recovery in memory ASML received nine EUV orders Gross margin guidance implies a more EUV-oriented mix in 1Q20
ASML Holding ASM International
22 Jan 20
ASML: Higher EUV insertion | BUY vs. NEUTRAL | EUR290 vs. EUR230 (+8%)
ASML - BUY vs. NEUTRAL | EUR290 vs. EUR230 (+8%) Higher EUV insertion Appetite for EUV is stronger than expected Gross margin and memory will be the main focus of 2020 We adopt a BUY rating and a fair value at EUR290
14 Jan 20
Semiconductors Semiconductor Top Picks 1Q20: ASMI and Besi
Semiconductors Semiconductor Top Picks 1Q20: ASMI and Besi Semiconductor stocks posted excellent share price return in 2019 Mobile set to be a key driver, especially for equipment in Q1 2020 ASMI and Besi our Top Picks for Q1 Lowest surprise potential for Infineon and Soitec
ASML ASM BESI BESI
07 Jan 20
ASML: Mixed feeling as EUV satisfaction seems above expectation but FCF will be under pressure | NEUTRAL | EUR230 vs. EUR220 (-1%)
ASML - NEUTRAL | EUR230 vs. EUR220 (-1%) Mixed feeling as EUV satisfaction seems above expectation but FCF will be under pressure Delay in 4 EUV shipments in Q4 Execution is good on GM but the tone was more cautious FCF under pressure due to significant increase in capex We increase our FV from EUR220 to EUR230
ASML Holding ASM International
17 Oct 19
Q3 release: on track to achieve FY guidance
ASML has released a good and reassuring publication, in line with consensus, and remains well on track to achieve its full-year guidance. We particularly appreciate the level of net bookings that reached a new record high, providing more visibility to achieve the 2020 objectives. However, Memory demand remains weak and we believe further improvements are needed on that side to justify a strong re-rating.
16 Oct 19
Q3 results in line with expectations, ASML on track to hit 2020 margin guidance
ASML | NEUTRAL | EUR220 Q3 results in line with expectations, ASML on track to hit 2020 margin guidance Q3 2019 results broadly in line with the street’s expectations Logic sales accelerated as expected, but a miss in services Very strong bookings already paving the way for 2021 Solid Q4 guidance partly supported by a more favourable tax rate
ASML Holding ASM International
16 Oct 19
Semiconductors: iPhone volume shipments to be the main growth driver for semi suppliers this year
Semiconductors iPhone volume shipments to be the main growth driver for semi suppliers this year Cameras were the main focus All rumored were confirmed Energy efficiency brought by ASML and Dialog technologies Main driver growth driver will be the volume of shipments
ASML SOI STM BESI DLG IFX
11 Sep 19
ASML: Management allayed most of the concerns we have raised | NEUTRAL | EUR205 vs. EUR190 (+6%)
ASML - NEUTRAL | EUR205 vs. EUR190 (+6%) Management allayed most of the concerns we have raised We were right on Memory, but did not anticipate Logic momentum Encouraging comments on memory appetite for EUV ASML reassured on gross margin for 2019 and beyond
ASML Holding ASM International
18 Jul 19
Still very confident in its end-demand
The company continued to enjoy the sweet spot of its quasi-monopolistic position in the Lithography market and monopolistic one in EUV. Thus, ASML is one of the very few semiconductor equipment companies that will enjoy growth this year, supported by a healthy mix of clients. Therefore, despite the softness on the market, ASML has not changed its FY19 guidance and has reiterated its confidence in fulfilling all of its objectives.
17 Jul 19
Reassuring Q1 publication
The company unveiled good Q1 19 results, beating the consensus and, most importantly, keeping its view unchanged for the rest of year. The latter is maybe the most important as the market feared a struggle coming from the memory market, and this publication should then clear up fears about the guidance.
18 Apr 19
Still bright prospects in the long run
ASML reported a strong Q4 in terms of revenue, leading to a record year for 2018. However, ASML’s revenue guidance for the next quarter missed consensus. • Q4 net sales of €3.1bn (+23% yoy), net income of €788m, gross margin at 44.3% • ASML has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Nikon to settle a patent dispute leading to the recognition of a €131m provision in 2018 • 2018 revenue of €10.9bn, net income €2.6bn, gross margin at 46% • 2018 EPS at €6.10 per share vs €4.81 in 2017 (+26%) • ASML proposes a 50% dividend increase to €2.10 per share Going forward: • ASML expects Q1 19 net sales of around €2.1bn and a gross margin of around 40% • Due to a fire at a supplier, the expected impact on Q1 19 sales is around €300m, which is expected to be largely recovered in Q2 • R&D costs of around €480m, SG&A costs at around €130m and a target effective annualised tax rate of around 14%
23 Jan 19
The EUV take-off
ASML reported a qoq sales growth of 20% (+30.4% yoy) while the gross margin dropped from 48.7% in Q1 18 to 43.3% in Q2 18. Due to higher R&D costs, the operating margin followed the same trend, down 2.9pts to 25.2%. Net income grew by 8.1% qoq but also showed a decreasing margin (21.3% from 23.6%). The EPS was, on the contrary, boosted by the share buy-back programme which will not end before 2019 (€1.37/share vs €1.26/share in Q1 18).
18 Jul 18
Heterogenous Q1 results but still bright medium-term perspectives
ASML reported its quite solid Q1 results this morning, with sales slightly above guidance at €2.28bn. The gross margin also came in above expectations at 48.7%, mainly thanks to volume and mix of DUV and holistic lithography products. The group’s expectations for Q2 came in slightly above what the market anticipated in terms of sales but not in terms of gross margin. In the medium term (2020), ASML expects to see revenues of €11bn with an EPS above €9/share.
18 Apr 18
Strong H2, but mixed EUV news due to supply chain constraints
ASML reported Q3 17 revenues of €2,447m, a 16.4% sequential and 34.8% yoy increase. 55 systems were sold, for a total of €1,818m (up 31.3% sequentially and 44.5% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €629m (down 12.3% sequentially and up 12.9% yoy). Net bookings reached €2,154m (vs. €2,375m in the previous quarter), while the backlog increased by 6.4% to a new high of €5,693m. The gross margin (GAAP) reached 42.9%, down 310bp yoy, while the operating margin (GAAP) came in at 26.8%, for a net income of €574.8m (IFRS). Concerning EUV, no new system was booked, three were shipped and four recognised in revenues during the quarter, making a total of 23 systems in the backlog (for a value of €2.56bn). For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales of about €2.1bn (of which €300m coming from EUV) and a gross margin of 44%. The company targets six EUV shipments in Q4, twenty in 2018 and at least thirty in 2019. Finally, the company confirmed that the share buy-back programme will not reach the initial target of €1.5bn (€569m worth of shares have been repurchased so far, of which €169m in Q3).
19 Oct 17
Strong quarter, probable inflection point for EUV
ASML reported Q2 17 revenues of €2,101m, an 8.1% sequential and 20.8% yoy increase. 42 systems were sold, for a total of €1,384m (up 13.8% sequentially and 10.4% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €717m (down 1.5% sequentially and up 47.5% yoy). Net bookings reached €2,375m (vs. €1,894m in the previous quarter), while the backlog increased by 18.7% to €5,351m. The gross margin (GAAP) reached 45.1%, up 250bp yoy, while the operating margin (GAAP) came in at 26.5%, for a net income of €475.6m (IFRS). Concerning EUV, eight new systems were booked, making a total of 27 systems in the backlog (for a value of €2.8bn), with further orders being expected in 2017 for 2018-19 shipments. For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales of about €2.2bn (of which €300m coming from EUV) and a gross margin of 43%. Three EUV systems are expected to ship. For the full year, the company expects the top-line to grow by 25%. Finally, the company announced that the share buy-back programme, currently paused due to acquisitions, will resume in Q3 although the initial target of €1.5bn may not be reached.
19 Jul 17
10nm and memory offset no major news in EUV
ASML reported Q1 17 revenues of €1,944m, a 1.9% sequential and 45.8% yoy increase. 44 systems were sold, for a total of €1,216m (down 0.6% sequentially and up 41.4% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €728m (up 6.4% sequentially and 53.9% yoy). Net bookings reached €1,894m (vs. €1,580m in the previous quarter), while the backlog increased by 13.8% to €4,509m. The gross margin (GAAP) reached 47.6%, up 40bp sequentially, while the operating margin (GAAP) came in at 27.5%, for net income of €460.9m (IFRS). Concerning EUV, three new systems were booked, making a total of 21 systems in the backlog, with further orders being expected in 2017. Four orders for upgrades to the latest model have been received for a total of €200m. For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales between €1.9bn and €2bn, and a gross margin of 43-44%. EUV revenues will reach €200m, and three new systems are expected to be shipped.
19 Apr 17
A turning-point for EUV, and also for the share price?
ASML reported Q4 16 revenues of €1,907m, a 5.1% sequential and 33% yoy increase. 44 systems were sold (with an ASP of €32.2m), for a total of €1,223m (down 1.3% sequentially and up 38.8% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €684m (up 18.8% sequentially and 23.7% yoy). Net bookings reached €1,580m, while the backlog increased to €3,961m (+24.4% yoy). The GAAP gross margin reached 47.2%, in the lower range of the guidance, while the GAAP operating margin came in at 27.8%, for net income of €524.2m. Regarding EUV, six systems were ordered in Q4 16, and the backlog now includes 18 EUV systems for a value of c. €2bn. The number of systems shipped in the year remains at four. The company announced an increase in its dividend to €1.2 from €1.05. For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales of around €1.8bn, and a gross margin of around 47%.
19 Jan 17
Strong logic momentum, EUV to boost revenues but initially with low profitability
ASML reported Q3 16 revenues of €1,815m, a 4.3% sequential and 17.2% yoy increase. 40 systems were sold (with an ASP of €31m), for a total of €1,239m (down 1.2% sequentially and up 27.1% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €576m (up 18.5% sequentially and 0.3% yoy). Net bookings reached €1,415m (vs. €1,566m in the previous quarter), while the backlog increased by 2.7% to €3,462m. The gross margin (GAAP) reached 46%, 100bp below guidance and up 60bp yoy, while the operating margin (GAAP) came in at 27.3%, for net income of €425.5m (IFRS). Concerning EUV, €85m of revenues were unexpectedly recognised during the quarter, and three new systems were booked, making a total of 12 systems in the backlog. One system was shipped during Q3, bringing the 2016 total to three units; another shipment is expected during Q4, while two additional systems will be delayed into early 2017, one due to customer fab readiness and one due to late material delivery. The 1,500 wafers per day milestone was crossed at a customer site on average over a three days period, while the availability peaked at 90% over a four-week period (and seven customers achieved more than 80% over the same period). For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales between €1.7bn and €1.8bn, and a gross margin of 47-48%.
19 Oct 16
Positive signals from the EUV front, logic taking-off as expected
ASML reported Q2 16 revenues of €1,740m, a 30.5% sequential and 5.2% yoy increase. 46 systems were sold (with an ASP of €27.3m), for a total of €1,254m (down 2.8% sequentially and 31.4% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €477m (up 46.5% sequentially and 10.6% yoy). Net bookings reached €1,566m (vs. €835m in the previous quarter), while the backlog increased to €3,371m. The gross margin (GAAP) reached 42.6%, 60bp above guidance again and down 300bp yoy, while the operating margin (GAAP) came in at 23.2%, for net income of €370.4m (IFRS). Concerning EUV, there is no change to the 2016 target of 6-7 shipments, with one shipment having occurred in Q2 16 after one in Q1 16, for a revenue recognition of €100m (vs. €110m previously announced). Four EUV systems were ordered during the quarter, and 10 are currently in the backlog; several other orders are expected during H2 16. After buying a total of 4.6m of shares through its share buy-back programme (worth €387m), the company announced a pause following the acquisition of HMI, which was announced in June for a total of €2.75bn. For the next quarter, the company forecasts once again sales of around €1.7bn, and a gross margin of around 47%. The FY2016 sales are expected to be above the 2015 figures, although the final level will depend on the timing of the EUV revenue recognition and the timing of the logic ramp up.
20 Jul 16
EUV to dilute margins before full revenue recognition
ASML reported Q1 16 revenues of €1,333m, a 7% sequential and 19.2% yoy decrease. 33 systems were sold (with an ASP of €25.9m), for a total of €856m (down 2.8% sequentially and 31.4% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €477m (down 13.7% sequentially but up by 18.4% yoy). Net bookings reached €835m, while the backlog decreased to €3,018m. The gross margin (GAAP) reached 42.6%, 60bp above guidance and down 460bp yoy, while the operating margin (GAAP) came in at 17.1%, for net income of €284.1m (IFRS). Concerning EUV, the target for 2016 is maintained at 6-7 shipments, with one shipment having occurred in Q1 16 and another one planned in Q2 16. €223m of shares have been bought during Q1 16. For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales of around €1.7bn, and a gross margin once again of around 42% due to a negative 500bp impact related to the first EUV shipments. The ramp-up in logic is expected to go on in H2 16.
21 Apr 16
Reasons to be optimistic for 2016, despite the weak Q1 guidance
ASML reported Q4 15 revenues of €1,434m, a 7.4% sequential and 4% yoy decrease. 37 systems were sold (with an ASP of €23.8m), for a total of €881m (down 9.6% sequentially and 18.8% yoy), while service and field option sales reached €553m (down 3.7 sequentially but up by 35.2% yoy). Net bookings reached €1,184m, while the backlog increased to €3,184m. The gross margin reached 46%%, 10bp above guidance, while the operating margin came in at 22.2%, for net income of €344.2m. Concerning EUV, two systems were shipped in 2015, while one is currently in progress. The target for 2016 is 6-7 shipments, with the productivity target set at 1,500 wafers per day (1,000 in 2015) and the availability at 80% (70% in 2015). For the next quarter, the company forecasts sales of around €1.3bn vs. €1.38bn expected by the market, and a gross margin of around 42%, but is expecting a much stronger Q2 thanks to the ramp up in logic. p=. !data.png!
20 Jan 16
Q3 in line but guidance slightly downgraded for the FY
ASML reported Q3 15 revenues of €1,549m, a 6.3% sequential decrease but an improvement of 17.2% vs. the previous year. 44 systems were sold (with an ASP of €24.2m for the new system), for a total of €975m, while service and field option sales reached €574m.
14 Oct 15
Q2 in line, FY forecasts less weak than expected
ASML reported Q2 sales of €1,654m, flat both sequentially and yoy (respectively +0.2% and 0.6%). 41 new systems have been sold, with system revenues coming in at €1,134m, and field options sales reached €520m. The backlog witnessed a net increase to €3,015m from €2,602m.
15 Jul 15