Q1 20 earnings came in below consensus expectations on the back of a sharper hit from COVID-19, mostly driven by the lower Automotive activities. Q2 is expected to suffer the most and, while the company had already withdrawn its FY20 guidance, FCF is expected to be negative in 2020. Hopefully, the strong balance sheet of the company might help it to cope with this crisis.
Q4 publication was a mix of contrasting moving parts, with an underperformance for Consumer while Location Technology, fuelled by Enterprise, held back. The commercial momentum was also strong for the latter. The company missed the consensus at the EBTIDA level, on the back of higher investment to support its technology.
TomTom’s Q3 release is of good quality, in our view, underpinning the good traction of its Location technology offer. The lower revenue guidance for FY19 has been triggered by accounting treatments, therefore, the cash generation assumption still holds true.
Tomtom has held its Capital Markets Day with a focus on its key Location Technological products and services. In the short term, no major disruptions are expected, especially in a cautious environment for OEMs. However, from 2021 onward, the company is a bit more bullish than anticipated, thanks to a broader OEM adoption of connectivity and ADAS systems, increasing the need for services.
Tomtom did not disappoint the market and released another set of a strong results. This quarter has also been helped by an “unexpected” GPS system bug that pulled in replacement sales in its Consumer segment. On the back of these better results, the company has upgraded its revenue guidance for the current year.
Tomtom has released a sound Q1 publication, beating the consensus in almost all the forecasted metrics. The company also secured a number of contracts in its traditional business while preparing for the next step, namely the HD map business.
Key fact for Q4
Revenues reached €218m, flat yoy and above market expectations
Gross margin was 70% vs 59% in Q4 17
Total EBITDA was €44m, up 16% yoy and in line with expectations
Key facts for FY 18
Revenues were €861m, down 5% yoy, in line with the consensus
Gross margin reached 71% (vs 63% in FY 17) to €610m, up 7% yoy
Total EBITDA was €214m, up 35% yoy (€158m in FY 17)
Net profit reached €44.8m compared to €-194.4m in 2017
Adjusted EPS was €0.36 per share
Cash generation is up, FCF was €145m vs €68.6m in 2017
Net cash position was €252m vs €121m in 2017
TomTom sees its FY19 revenues reaching €675m (flat yoy, pro forma the Telematics sales).
Slight increase in gross margin to at least 70%
Sharp opex increase to €555m vs €472m in 2018 (excluding Telematics)
Capex should reach c. €55m
Adjusted EPS seen at €0.15
The company published a strong Q3, confirming the good trend seen since the beginning of the year, and revised upward its guidance for this year.
For Q3, we see a moderate increase in total revenue (+1% yoy) thanks to strong growth in the Automotive & Enterprise activity (+15% yoy). However, the still declining Consumer activity (i.e. Personal navigation assistant) offset the top-line with a drop of 14% in revenue. The Telematics activity also grew by 10% yoy, driven by an increasing base of monthly subscribers (+10%) and steady revenue per subscription.
One of the key points came from the changing revenue mix which allows better margins and we see a sharp increase in both EBIT (positive with €23.8m vs €-0.4m last year) and EBITDA (+76% increase yoyto €62m). Cash generation was also strong with a CFO at €56.4m compared to €48.4m for Q3 17 and free cash flow stood at €28.5m (vs €23.5m in Q3 17).
The net result came in at €17.2m vs €-1.2m last year.
Tomtom now expects revenues for FY18 to be close to €850m vs $825m previously, and an adjusted EPS of around €0.35 vs €0.30 previously.
At the same time, the company announced the loss of a contract signed with Volvo in July 2016. This contract, worth c.€250m, was due to begin in 2019 and would have provided location and navigation content services.
The revenue trend observed in Q1 continues in Q2 (-9% to €231.4m), while H1 revenues are also down 9% to €423.2m. The EBITDA margin, on the contrary, is up to 27% vs 20% in Q2 17, while the operating margin reached 11% vs -61% in Q2 17. Finally, the adjusted net result for H1 18 reached €34.3m, up from €0.2m in H1 17.
Tomtom reported quite good Q1 results confirming the trend observed in recent quarters in its activities. Also, the proportion of revenues linked to data, software and services has continued to increase, pulling upward both the gross and EBITDA margins. Finally, thanks to a solid financial result, the net result reached €6.4m for Q1 18. The group has consequently confirmed its guidance for FY18, expecting revenues of about €800m and adjusted EPS of about €0.25.
TomTom reported Q4 revenues of €219.7m, down 17.3% yoy and up 1% sequentially. Consumer decreased by 40.2% yoy to €91m, as well as Licensing (€32.8m, -6.3%). The two other businesses grew by 46.9% for Automotive (€53.9m) and 1% for Telematics (€42m).
The three non-legacy businesses combined grew by 13.6% to €128.7m, accounting for 59% of the total revenues.
The gross margin came in at 59.4%, up 180bp yoy, while EBIT came in at €-29.5m. EPS came in at €-0.15 and adjusted EPS at €0.06.
For FY17, revenues came in at €903.4m (-8.5%), with a strong decrease in Consumer (€412.5m, -26.8%) and the three non-legacy businesses up by 15.8% (€490.9m, 54% of total revenues). The gross margin came in at 62.4%, and the EBIT margin at -22.1%; reported EPS came in at €-0.87, and adjusted EPS at €0.26.
For 2018, and under the new IFRS 15 & 16 rules, the company guided revenues of about €800m, a gross margin close to 70%, adjusted EPS of about €0.25 and combined opex and capex (excluding acquisitions) of about €700m. The restated adjusted EPS for FY17 was €0.18, the impact on revenues close to zero, the gross margin 63.1% and the EBIT margin -20.6%.
The €50m share buy-back programme was completed on 8 December for a total of 5,384,450 shares.
TomTom reported Q3 revenues of €217.6m, down 9.1% yoy and 14.1% sequentially. Consumer decreased by 29.1% yoy to €97.2m, as well as Licensing (€33.8m, -1.7%). The two other businesses grew by 50.8% for Automotive (€47.2m) and 7.9% for Telematics (€39.4m).
The three non-legacy businesses combined grew by 17.8% to €120.4m, accounting for 55% of the business.
The gross margin came in at 64.6%, up 420bp yoy, while EBIT came in at -€5.9m. EPS came in at €-0.02 and adjusted EPS at €0.08.
The company updated its guidance for FY17: the target for adjusted EPS remains at around €0.25, but revenues are now expected at about €900m due to the reorganisation in Consumer Sport. Capex and opex are also expected to grow marginally compared to 2016 (vs. modestly).
Concerning the €50m share buy-back programme, 63,797 shares worth €6.1m have been acquired during the quarter.
TomTom reported Q2 revenues of €253.4m, down 4.4% yoy and up 19.1% sequentially. Consumer decreased by 19.7% yoy to €126.3m, representing the only down-mover. The three other businesses combined grew by 17.7% to €127.1m, with in decreasing order Automotive (€48.4m, +38.7% yoy), Licensing (€38.6m, +16.3%) and Telematics (€40.1m, +0.5%).
The gross margin came in at 63.4%, up 860bp yoy, while the EBIT was strongly negative (€-159.5m) due to a €168.7m impairment charge related to Consumer. EPS came in at €-0.68 and adjusted EPS at €0.09.
The company re-iterated its guidance for FY17 with adjusted EPS of around €0.25, but warned that the revenues would come in at the lower end of the previously communicated €925-950m range. The non-legacy business is expected to grow by 15%, while strategic options are being looked at for the Sport business.
A €50m share buy-back was also announced.
TomTom reported Q1 revenues of €212.7m, down 2% yoy and 19.9% sequentially. Consumer decreased by 16% yoy to €98m, representing the main down-mover. The three other businesses combined grew by 14.1% to €114.7m, with in decreasing order Automotive (€41.1m, +38.4% yoy), Telematics (€40.6m, +9.4%) and Licensing (€33m, -2.1%).
The gross margin came in at 62.2%, up 540bp yoy, while the EBIT margin lost 30bp to -2.3% (-€4.8m). EPS came in at €-0.02 and adjusted EPS at €0.03.
The company re-iterated its guidance for FY17 with adjusted EPS of around €0.25 and revenues of between €1,025 and €1,050m.
TomTom reported Q4 revenues of €265.6m, up 11% sequentially but down 6% yoy. Consumer accounted for most of the decrease (€152.3m, -13.4%), while Licensing was also down double-digit (€35m, -10.9%). Telematics and Automotive were up by double-digit (respectively €41.6m and +12.4%, and €36.7m and +21.1%). The gross margin came in at 57.6% (up 840bp yoy), for a negative EBIT margin of 0.2% (down 30bp yoy).
For FY16, revenues reached €987.2m, down 1.9%. Consumer displayed here too the biggest decrease (€563.2m, -9.7%) followed by Licensing (€136.3m, -4.1%). Telematics and Automotive were also up by double-digit (respectively €155.1m and +14.9%, and €132.9m and +25.2%). Telematics almost reached the 700k subscribers mark (696k), corresponding to a 15% increase over FY15. The gross margin came in at 57.4%, up 590bp yoy, and the EBIT margin at 0.9%, up 80bp yoy, with a strong negative EBIT in Automotive (-€33.9m) offset by a strong performance in Telematics (€44.5m). The FY16 adjusted EPS came in at €0.23 (€0.21 in FY15).
For FY17, the company is expecting revenues to decrease to a range of €925-950m, with a net decline in Consumer partially offset by a 10% combined growth in the rest of the business. Adjusted EPS is expected to reach €.25, while capex and opex are expected to grow modestly.
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U.S. futures and European stocks dropped on Friday as investors mulled a reported conflict among policy makers over a stimulus package for the single-currency region, as well as political upheaval in France.
The Stoxx 600 Index fell after Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank is facing a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy. The euro fluctuated following French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to name a new prime minister after asking his government to resign. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc slumped after the British jet-engine maker said its exploring options to raise funds to strengthen its balance sheet.
The dollar was slightly down, posting its first weekly drop in a month, while American cash equity and bond markets were shut for Independence Day. President Donald Trump will attend an early July 4 celebration at Mount Rushmore with thousands of guests who won't be required to wear masks, while his U.K. counterpart Boris Johnson urged Britons to act responsibly as pubs prepare to re-open and the government lifts quarantine rules on travel for 60 countries.
The friction at the ECB highlights the risk to markets should promised stimulus measures fall short. Investors continue to weigh policy support and upbeat economic data against relentless new outbreaks of the virus. U.S payrolls figures Thursday fuelled optimism of a V-shaped recovery in the world's biggest economy, even as Florida reported that infections and hospitalizations jumped the most yet, and Houston had a surge in intensive-care patients. Emerging-market stocks posted the biggest weekly gain in a month.
Elsewhere, crude oil dipped but remained on track for a weekly gain.
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Material acceleration of strategic plan
Companies: Melodyvr Group Plc
Gamma is acquiring around 80% of HFO Holding AG (HFO), one of the leading SIP Trunk providers in Germany, for an initial consideration of €20.4m in cash with an option to purchase the remaining shares over the next three years. In line with its stated strategy, Gamma can invest and use its commercial strength and expertise to accelerate HFO’s growth and replicate the Group’s success in the UK by developing a market leading position in Germany. Noting net debt of €2.9m when the deal closed, the implied historical EV/EBITDA multiple of about 10x compares with Gamma’s equivalent of 18.7x. We estimate that the deal will be 4% earnings enhancing in the first full year of ownership and our estimate upgrades reflect that. The European markets for cloud telephony in which Gamma is now represented will ultimately overtake the UK in size, providing Gamma with significant future growth potential. We view this acquisition as another significant step in Gamma’s strategic aim to expand into Europe via exposure to another lucrative market opportunity.
Companies: Gamma Communications
This is a positive trading update for a period impacted by the pandemic restrictions and uncertainty. The COVID-related global slowdown caused an 8% LFL YoY revenue decline to $166.5m in H1, but an improving gross margin and management’s temporary cost controls have protected earnings sufficiently to be ahead of H1 LY (adj. EBITDA of $16.0m). ‘Profit in cash’ (adj. EBITDA less capex and lease payments) is also ahead of the $2.6m seen LY. In fact, cashflow has been very healthy, net cash rising from $48.2m to $55.7m in the period, notably boosted by collections from the divested automotive business. A pleasing aspect of H1 is the continuing growth in higher-margin IoT services, up 12% YoY despite COVID. Easing of restrictions in H2 should see a return to more usual revenue and profit levels, and our FY 2020 earnings growth expectations remain unchanged despite revenue falling YoY – thanks to the cost savings management implemented. Looking further out to next year, a return to revenue growth and continued profit improvement is anticipated for FY 2021, due to pent-up demand and greater IoT adoption on concerns over physical restrictions in future pandemics. At the interim stage, Telit is well positioned to continue to deliver its impressive track record for earnings growth (we expect 9% adj. EBITDA growth this year and 19% next). Currently on an EV/EBITDA multiple of just 3.3x, the shares are deeply undervalued for a stock delivering such consistent profit progress with a very solid balance sheet in these uncertain times.
Companies: Telit Communications
The Board has finally decided to suspend its final dividend for 2019/20 and all dividends for 2020/21. This move is structural and not really linked to the Covid19 crisis in that it is to invest in FTTP and 5G, and to fund a major new 5-year modernisation programme.
These announcements are a first buy signal although the recovery will take time and the group must now stabilize its revenues which will not be easy given the Covid19 pandemic context.
Companies: BT Group
CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 3.1p/£10.1m) | Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 1.675p/£12.0m) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 38.5p/£33.8m) | Newmark Security plc* (NWT.L, 1.05p/£4.9m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 95.0p/£8.5m)
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We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
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Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
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Gamma’s H1 trading update reports another strong performance. In light of that, while management expects full year revenue to be within consensus range, it anticipates that EBITDA and EPS for FY 2019E will be slightly above the range of market expectations. As a result, we are assuming greater overhead efficiency than we had previously allowed for and we are increasing our FY 2019E EBITDA estimate by £1 million to £56.5 million - with the expectation of reassessing this further (positively) at the time of the interims in September. The update confirms that there has been continued growth in the UK across both direct and indirect channels. Cloud PBX sales have performed well again but there is a nod to the effects of an increasingly competitive market in the statement. Additionally, during the period, Gamma implemented the first phase of its digital transformation program in the Direct business. In all, this represents another strong period of growth for Gamma which, as CEO Andrew Taylor notes, balances near-term delivery with the execution of the Group’s longer term strategy.
Bill McDermott stood down on Friday after a decade building up SAP as the world's leading enterprise software company, handing the task of completing its transition to cloud computing to new co-CEOs Jennifer Morgan and Christian Klein. SAP announced the management overhaul, with immediate effect, after rushing out third-quarter results that showed it gaining traction in its drive to offer a more streamlined range of services and boost profitability. The company’s stock has climbed 21% this year. It’s up 75% in the past five years, topping rival Oracle, which is up 46%, and the S&P 500′s 54% gain.
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Oil posted the biggest weekly plunge since 2008, capping its most dramatic week in recent memory as major producers prepare to drench the market with supply just as the coronavirus crushes demand. But prices jumped following the close, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would fill the nation's strategic reserve. Losses for the week totalled 23% after the collapse of talks between members of the OPEC+ group triggered the biggest crash in a generation. Instead of reaching a deal to cut output to mitigate the fallout from the virus, producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia embarked on a war for market share and pledged to pump more.
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FY 2019 saw a strong financial and operational performance. The management team is working hard to optimise its sales strategy and pursue further cost reductions. The results of its efforts are already visible in much improved financials: growth in all the ongoing businesses and in all regions; and stronger margins from better revenue mix and streamlining. The sale of Automotive in February 2019 focused Telit on Industrial IoT, removed a heavy R&D burden and left the group very well-funded. Cash is to be partially returned to shareholders depending on the developing Covid-19 situation. Even in an uncertain times, the year leaves Telit very well placed with tremendous upside to build LT value through numerous opportunities as a global leader in the growing IoT market.
Telit has moved to preserve its profit levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. The widespread lockdown of unknown duration is likely to slow some of its YoY revenue growth, and we trim our FY 2020 revenue expectations, although we do still continue to expect LFL growth (excluding the two months of Automotive in FY 2019). Despite its significant cash reserves from the disposal, management is prudently adopting a cost-reduction plan to ensure the company’s earnings are maintained at the targeted level. Notably this involves a temporary 15% salary reduction for senior management and a reduction in all areas of discretionary spending, including opex and capex. Strategic plans (such as long-term product development and the movement of production outside China) will be unaffected. We are pleased to hear the supply chain remains steady with minimal disruption in module production as the lockdown across Asia is partially lifted. At this stage, we leave FY 2021 forecasts unchanged, given a strong market position.
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C: Initiating coverage | 88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Acquisition in Alaska | BP (BP LN): Transaction in Alaska with Hilcorp renegotiated | Columbus Energy Resources (CERP LN): Oil discovery in Trinidad | Premier Oil (PMO LN) and Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Sea Lion farm out (Falklands) exclusivity period extended | BP (BP LN): 1Q20 results | Equinor (EQNR NO): Dry hole in Norway | Getech (GTC LN): Business update | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Business update in the UK North Sea |IGas Energy (IGAS LN): Shutting some production in the UK | Lundin Energy (LUP SS): 1Q20 results | OKEA (OKEA NO): 1Q20 update in Norway | OMV (OMV AG): 1Q results | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Court approves schemes of arrangement | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): 1Q20 results and dividend reduction | RockRose Energy (RRE LN): Operational update in the UK | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN): £1.275 mm equity raise | Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Operating update in Kazakhstan | Exillon Energy (EXI LN): February and March production in Russia | Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): 1Q20 update in Kazakhstan | PetroNeft (PTR LN): Operations update | Genel Energy (GENL LN): Update in Kurdistan – While negotiations are ongoing the KRG will not exercise the notice of an intention to terminate the Bina Bawi PSC | ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Business update in Kurdistan | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): Production reduction in Oman | Total (FP FP): Dry hole in Lebanon | Aminex (AEX LN) and Solo Oil (SOLO LN): Licence extension in Tanzania | Far Limited (FAR AU): Update in Senegal | Lekoil (LEK LN): Final payment with Nigerian partner rescheduled | Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN): FY19 results | Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): Financial and operating update in Nigeria | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Special dividend | Seplat Petroleum (SEPL LN): 1Q20 results
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Quite a good Q4 supported by improving commercial momentum in Europe. The annual EBITDA grew eventually by 2.6% yoy reflecting the cost programme’s success.
The €0.09 dividend is maintained.
Vodafone is more highly indebted after its deal with Liberty-Global, but its dividend (cut last year) seems now more in harmony with its balance sheet. Besides, the monetisation of its infrastructure is continuing. Given therefore the slight growth Vodafone should offer in the coming years, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.
Companies: Vodafone Group