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SalMar once again demonstrated its stellar operational performance with a significant earnings beat. The proposed NOK 13 DPS to be paid in Q4/20 as well as the 2021 volume guidance were also supportive. We have implemented our new price assumptions, and our EPS estimates are down by a modest 2% and 3% for 2020 and 2021 respectively. SalMar’s valuation reflects its stellar performance in our view, and we stick to our Hold rating and our NOK 525 TP.
Companies: SalMar ASA
Arctic Securities
Q3/20 EBIT of NOK647m (Arctic: NOK 515m, Cons.: NOK 485m) Reiterates 2020 volume guiding of 152’t (Norway) and 12’t (Iceland) Introduces 2021 volume guiding of 163’t (Norway) and 14’t (Iceland) Estimates to be revised marginally lower due to new price assumptions
SalMar will release its Q3/20 results on Thursday 12 November, and we now expect an EBIT of NOK 515m (594) – above consensus at NOK 423m. Due to its stellar operating performance relative to peers, it has been our top pick so far in 2020. However, following the strong share price outperformance, we now downgrade the stock to Hold (Buy), but stick to our NOK 525 target price.
SalMar once again outperformed expectations and is the only company during the Q2/20 reporting season with a positive earnings trend. We have only fine-tuned our estimates, but raise our target price to NOK 525 (500). Premium multiples are justified, in our view, as the company both has industry leading operational performance and growth projects supporting volume and earnings growth in the years ahead. We stick to our Buy rating.
Q2/20 EBIT of NOK 882m (Arctic NOK 865m, Cons.: NOK 757m) FY/20 volume guiding reiterated at 152’t Cost guiding for Q3/20: Stable Central Norway, slightly higher in North 2020 estimates more or less unchanged
SalMar will release its Q2/20 results on Thursday 27 August. We have implemented the harvest volumes announced on 6 July, as well as average prices for the quarter – some NOK 4.4/kg above our previous assumption. We now expect an EBIT of NOK 865m (672) for the quarter vs consensus at NOK 646m. We still expect SalMar will deliver strong operating performance relative to its peers in Q2/20 and we stick to our Buy rating as well as our NOK 500 target price.
SalMar reported a Q1/20 EBIT of NOK 1,065m – in line with our estimate while 7% above consensus. The outperformance vs peers was significant in the quarter as the company steered clear of winter wounds. We have only fine-tuned our estimates and they hence hold up well relative to peers. We find such outperformance likely also in the next few quarters, and we upgrade the stock to Buy (Hold) and raise our target price to NOK 500 (420).
Q1 EBIT of NOK 1,065m (Arctic: NOK 1,065m, Cons.: NOK 998m) FY/20 volume guiding reiterated at 152’t (152) Guides for lower costs Q/Q in Q2/20 Minor estimate changes expected – high quality set to continue
SalMar just announced the proposed FY/19 dividend is cancelled Both due to uncertain effects of the corona virus in the value chain.. ..as well as to ensure strategic investments such as offshore farming Negative, and could also imply risk of others following
SalMar delivered Q4 results significantly below expectations following an early harvest in Central Norway, impacting both realized prices and costs. The company expects stable costs going into Q1/20 – above our previous assumptions, and we have lowered our 2020 estimates by 8%. The DPS of NOK 21 represents a yield of 5.0% - one of the best in the sector. We stick to our Buy rating while lowering our target price to NOK 460 (500) following our earnings revision.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on SalMar ASA. We currently have 51 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Companies: A.G. BARR p.l.c.
Shore Capital
Ocean Harvest Technology (OHT) report FY2023 results in-line with expectations. Product revenues of €3.0m grew at 21% versus FY2022A despite an (expected) H2 2023A decline of 7%, and was a function of lower margin single seaweed sales, which can be volatile. H2 2023 OceanFeed blended sales of €1.3m grew at 21% versus H2 2022. The H2 2023 gross margin of 39.5% supported this and showed a sharp acceleration versus the 35.3% seen in H2 2022. 15 new customers were added across FY2023, and with a ver
Companies: Ocean Harvest Technology Group Plc
Cavendish
Companies: Anpario plc
We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target for Starco Brands with the company announcing 4Q23 (December) results after the close on Monday. We believe 2024, with a full compliment of unique, value-added brands which leverage Starco's aerosol and marketing infrastructure in hand, and a laser focus on adding key categories and new relationships, is shaping up as another year of material progress for Starco. We believe there are also continued margin expansion opportunities from both
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Small Cap Consumer Research LLC
AG Barr’s (BAG’s) FY23 results highlighted the strength of the brand portfolio as group volumes (+2.4%) outperformed the UK soft drinks category decline of 2.9%. Key brands IRN-BRU (33% of FY24 revenue) and Rubicon (19% of FY24 revenue) grew 8% and 15%, respectively, as flavour innovation and format mix helped to drive volume growth. Management anticipates margin enhancement initiatives to yield a 100bp operating margin uplift in FY25, aided by greater in-sourcing and other efficiency gains. M&A
Edison
Companies: Wynnstay Group plc (WYN:LON)SDX Energy PLC (SDX:LON)
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
Companies: TXG NDVA TSVT BCOW Z29 TXG NCYT GNS SUN AMS OMG APH EKF EAH IMM AGL DEMG AGY TSTL IPO GDR ETX TRX HVO CTEC AVO OXB DEST VLG IXI VAL INDV AGR AVCT BAI 123F IMCR BCOW
Hardman & Co
Cyclical weakness in Carr’s Group’s Speciality Agriculture business has affected the company’s fortunes of late. However, the new management team, a strong net cash balance sheet and a record order book in the Engineering division offer optimism. Operational progress, particularly a reversal of fortunes in Speciality Agriculture, should rebuild confidence and a reduction in the current discount to our view of the underlying value.
Companies: Carr's Group PLC
FY23 results are much in line with overall expectations, helped by a much stronger H2 production and higher purchases of independent crops helping to fill the group’s rising mill capacity. A marginally higher than expected average CPO price mill-gate price of $729/tonne drove the revenue outperformance, but the change in production mix impacted gross margins while slightly higher than anticipated interest, tax and minority charges resulted in EBIT, PBT (Adj.) and EPS (Adj.) just below our foreca
Companies: M.P. Evans Group PLC
Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was
Companies: Greggs plc
Companies: Genus plc
Liberum
Carr’s Group has announced a fully refreshed executive team, none having been in-situ at the start of 2023. This will enable the executives to have an uninhibited view of the operations, enabling the development and implementation of a strategy reflecting the different opportunities and challenges facing the Engineering and Speciality Agriculture divisions.
Today's news & views, plus announcements from SNN, DOM, GRI, FTSA, WINE
Companies: Naked Wines plc
Capital Access Group
Better than expected to date: The January trading update season has been better than expected, with the ratio of upgrades to downgrades running at 26:16 out of the 101 trading updates that we have analysed. It’s a surprisingly positive start to the New Year which reflects (1) realistic expectations captured in consensus forecasts, (2) consumers’ determination to enjoy Christmas and protect important areas of personal expenditure and (3) a reduction in supply as competitors exit.
Companies: MORE MPE MTC RTN BOTB FUL LGRS RBG MRK MEX ZAM
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