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Adjusted Q3/20 EBIT of NOK 1,571m, 5% above Factset consensus Grocery sales benefitted from consumers staying at home “Out of home” demand recovered as Covid-19 restrictions were eased Strong Jotun results continue to be driven by decorative paints (Lady)
Companies: Orkla ASA
Arctic Securities
We expect Orkla to report Q3/20 adjusted EBIT of NOK 1,478m, 2% below latest Factset consensus of NOK 1,502m. Driven by 5% NOK weakening Y/Y, we expect overall sales growth of 6%. While we expect Orkla Foods and Orkla Care to report strong results, we expect Orkla Food Ingredients to suffer from reduced demand from hotels and canteens. We increase our estimated EBITDA by 5% for 2021 and 2022, to reflect a weaker NOK and a slower Covid-19 recovery.
Adjusted Q2/20 EBIT of 1,143m vs. Factset consensus of NOK 1,111m Q2/20 revenues of NOK 11,099m, up 5% Y/Y, in line with consensus Hydro Power reported negative EBIT for the first time Profit from associates and joint ventures (Jotun) holding up well
We expect Orkla to report Q2/20 adjusted EBIT of NOK 1,097m, 2% below latest Factset consensus of NOK 1,118m. With consumers staying at home, we expect Orkla Foods and Orkla Care to report another strong quarter. On the negative side, we expect Orkla Food Ingredients and restaurants to suffer from reduced “out of home” demand. We reiterate our Hold recommendation with a target price of NOK 85 per share, as we view current risk/reward as fair.
Since the end of April the Orkla share has underperformed the OSEBX by 25%, as appetite for risk assets has recovered. As interest rates are setting record lows, we argue that valuation multiples are starting to look attractive. We upgrade our recommendation from Sell to Hold, and increase our SOTP based target price from NOK 80 to NOK 85 per share. We argue that downside risk related to food ingredients, restaurants and Jotun is now largely priced in.
Orkla reported Q1/20 adjusted EBIT of NOK 1,143m, in line with Infront consensus of NOK 1,150m. This was not enough to prevent the share from slipping 6% on a cautious outlook for Q2/20. While Orkla Foods and Orkla Care benefitted from stockpiling in March, Orkla Food Ingredients and restaurants suffered from government restrictions. While demand for foods and household products have normalised in April, “out-of-home” activity was down significantly Y/Y.
Strong sales growth of 13% Y/Y already known to the market Adjusted EBIT of NOK 1,143m in line with consensus expectations Orkla Food Ingredients and restaurants showing signs of weakness Valuation multiples above normal following strong share performance
While the OSEBX is down 20% YTD the Orkla share is up, as Covid-19 has resulted in temporary hoarding of certain foods and household products. Orkla is also benefitting from NOK weakening, low interest rates and risk aversion. While all these factors could last for a while, we argue that this is the time to cash in your profits. We reinitiate coverage with a Sell recommendation and a TP of NOK 80, as we expect focus on long-term challenges to drive multiple contraction.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Orkla ASA. We currently have 47 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Companies: Premier Foods plc
Shore Capital
The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation t
Companies: Greggs plc
Edison
Companies: Genus plc
Liberum
Carr’s Group has announced an updated strategy that offers the potential for value realisation and creation from a number of avenues. These include: value realisation of the Engineering Division; the ability to significantly reduce central costs; and longer-term value creation in the Agriculture Division as a focused business with recovery potential and a strategy to leverage its strong market positions for growth.
Companies: Carr's Group PLC
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
Companies: TXG NDVA TSVT BCOW Z29 TXG NCYT GNS SUN AMS OMG APH EKF EAH IMM AGL DEMG AGY TSTL IPO GDR ETX TRX HVO CTEC AVO OXB DEST VLG IXI VAL INDV AGR AVCT BAI 123F IMCR BCOW
Hardman & Co
We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company announcing 1Q24 (March) results after the close on Thursday. We believe, with momentum returning at the Betterware division, JAFRA remaining on a new product and marketing focus, the United States market becoming a larger emphasis and BWMX continuing to offer a compelling (and secure) dividend yield of 8.5%, BWMX remains well positioned to reward investors on multiple levels, and we r
Companies: NUS MED NUS BWMX MED DDMX
Small Cap Consumer Research LLC
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was
11 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object
Companies: NICL DELT COG ABDP PYC W7L WSBN KIBO CRTA
Hybridan
Nichols’s trading update signals an in-line FY19 outcome driven by UK market share gains and good international progress. The main news today is the recent 50% excise tax on non-carbonated drinks in Saudi Arabia/UAE. This is a headwind going into FY20 which at this juncture is extremely difficult to quantify given c.80% of in-country sales of Vimto in the Middle East are made during the one month of Ramadan. Our analysis shows a potential c.£2.5-£4m PBT hit. Given the uncertainty we prudently fa
Companies: Nichols plc
Singer Capital Markets
Companies: TXP CRPR SNX ARBB TON FA/ SBRY MTW BWNG HFG HUW UJO MOTR OBD NRR DEST CBOX SDX EYE FDM EPWN SAVE W7L ACRL FAR BVC MWE MATD SENX
Companies: Anpario plc
Companies: Wynnstay Group plc
Companies: OHT TIDE ELCO TSTL VEL BBSN
Cavendish
Companies: OHT PCIP SND CORA
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