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Johan Sverdrup: lower cost, higher production

  • 29 Aug 16

Statoil is the operator of Sverdrup and owns a 40% stake, Lundin Petroleum holds 22.6%, Det Norske 11.5%, Petoro 17.4% and Maersk 8.44%. The company announced on Monday morning (29 August) that the Johan Sverdrup field costs have decreased even more than expected. According to the company, the first phase is currently estimated to be NOK99bn (capex numbers in nominal terms based on the project’s currency), a reduction of NOK24bn since the PDO was submitted. The present break-even is now reduced to below $25/bbl for phase 1. The improvements for phase 1 have been achieved by higher drilling and well efficiency, and the high quality of project planning and execution. The Johan Sverdrup project will be developed in several phases, and a comprehensive effort has been made to develop the concept for the full-field development of Johan Sverdrup. The estimate for the full-field investment has been improved from a range of NOK170–220bn in 2015 to NOK140–170bn. The improvements made for the Johan Sverdrup full-field development are mainly a result of optimisation and simplification of the development concept for future phases, in close cooperation with the supplier industry. Phase 1 production capacity is currently estimated at 440kbpd. The PDO originally estimated the phase 1 production capacity to be between 315kbpd and 380kbpd. So far, the Johan Sverdrup partners have agreed on expanding the production capacity on Johan Sverdrup by introducing an extra processing platform at the field centre. This will increase the expected full production capacity on the Johan Sverdrup full field to 660kbpd Since the PDO for the first phase was submitted the range of the full-field resource estimate has improved from 1.7-3.0 to 1.9-3.0 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The PDO for phase 1 of Johan Sverdrup originally called for the project’s pre-sanction (DG2) of future phases in 2016 and the final investment decision at the end of 2017. According to an updated plan, the project’s pre-sanction will be made in the first half of 2017, and a final investment decision will be reached and PDO will be submitted in the second half of 2018. Full-field production start will be in 2022, as originally planned. For more details: http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2016/Pages/JSaug2016.aspx

Lack of catalysts, weak cash flow, pressure on natural gas

  • 29 Jul 16

As previously mentioned, Statoil missed analysts’ expectations for the second quarter with an adjusted net loss $28m compared to a 300m gain expected. All three divisions performed below estimates. A) By division In the E&P division in Norway, the results came down 50% yoy to $1.16bn, mainly driven by lower realised prices. The liquid prices the group realised were 28% lower yoy and natural gas prices in Europe were 32% lower. Adjusted operating and administrative expenses decreased, mainly due to the results of efficiency gains from on-going costs improvements and the NOK/USD exchange rate development. Production was up by 5% to 1.2mbpd. International E&P Upstream still showed a loss of $500m, compared to $800m in Q1 16 and $-16m a year ago. The negative results were also driven by lower energy prices. There were also cost impairments thanks to efficiency but this was partially offset by operating costs from the new field coming on stream, higher transportation expenses in the US and portfolio changes. Production increased by 3% to 0.75mbpd. In the MMP division, the lower results ($329m, -52% yoy) were due to the lower refining margin because of planned maintenance at Kalundborg and Tjelbergodden. Mongstad will have a planned maintenance stop during Q3 16. The division reported earnings down 52% yoy to $329m, after $431m in Q1 16. For the MMP business, there were no changes in guidance, the group expecting to see volatility within a range of $250m and $500m. B) Cash flow Cash flow from operations was $1.1bn, down from $2.2bn in Q1 16 despite the better oil price environment. Capex was $2.9bn and the dividend $0.4bn, meaning that the group was again not able to cover its investment and dividend, by far. The board has approved a second quarter dividend of $0.22/share with a scrip option with a 5% discount for the quarter. C) Other The group reported a $733m one-off mainly related to an impairment in the Gulf of Mexico asset and a mark-to-market valuation effect of derivatives in the MMP segment. The tax rate was above 100% as a result of the earnings composition (high MMP earnings, low in Norway due to the uplift production and loss in the international division).

Prepared for long-term low oil prices

  • 11 Feb 16

Statoil reported its Q4 15 results with adjusted earnings at NOK1.6bn vs. NOK3bn expected. Impairment charges in Q4 15 were NOK15.2bn. For the full year, the adjusted earnings are NOK19.5bn, down from NOK39.1bn a year ago (-50%). +*1)On a divisional basis:*+ Adjusted EBIT came down 44% yoy to NOK15.2bn *Q4 FIGURES* p=. !0table.JPG! p>. _Source: Statoil / AlphaValue_ 1) E&P Norway reported EBIT down 29% yoy to NOK 17.1bn, leading the annual 2015 EBIT to NOK69.4bn, down 34% vs. 2014. Production decreased by 2% yoy to 1.31mbpd in Q4 15 due to the natural decline in mature fields, lower gas sales and redetermination offset by some ramp-up of new fields. The decrease was driven by lower energy prices and offset partially by a positive USD/NOK exchange rate development. 2) The International E&P division reported a negative adjusted EBIT of NOK5.7bn. Production decreased by 5% yoy to 0.74mbpd despite the ramp up on Jack/St Malo (US) due to the divestment of the Shah Deniz and natural decline. 3) In the marketing division, EBIT came down 29% yoy to NOK3.6bn. The decrease was mainly due to lower margins for European gas sales and trading activity partially offset by currency. Higher transportation costs also hit profit. Natural gas volumes came down 8% yoy in Q4 15 mainly due to divestments. Average invoiced European natural gas prices decreased 15% yoy and 31% yoy in the US. +*2)Cash flow position*+ In Q4 15, the group reported operating cash flow of NOK18.8bn with NOK2.9bn from working capital movements. The group invested NOK27.4bn, divested NOK6bn and sold “financial investments“ for NOK24bn. The dividend paid was NOK5.7bn. Without disposals, NOK14bn would have been missed. For the full year, NOK12.5bn was missed despite disposals. In 2015, the group sold: the Shah Deniz project and the South Caucasus Pipeline for NOK20.3bn, its head office building for NOK2.3bn and interest in the Marcellus onshore play for NOK2.8bn. The group introduced a two-year scrip dividend programme starting from the Q4 15. This will give the option to shareholders to receive the quarterly dividend in cash or in newly-issued shares in Statoil at a 5% discount. +*3)Capital Markets day update*+ The group also presented its update to the capital markets, announcing a step-up in its improvement programme by 50% to $2.5bn per year in 2016, a year ahead of plan. The group delivered annual cost savings of $1.9bn vs $1.7bn targeted. Statoil is also reducing its capex from $14.7bn to $13bn and has substantially improved its portfolio of non-sanctioned projects with planned start-ups by 2022, reducing the average breakeven from $70/bbl to $41/bbl. +*4)Outlook*+ Statoil will invest $13bn in 2016. From 2014 to 2017, Statoil estimates annual organic growth of 1% and 2-4% from 2017 to 2019.


Research, Charts & Company Announcements

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Date Source Announcement
19/10/2016 06:30:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil's share saving plan allocates shares
17/10/2016 06:53:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil ASA: Notifiable trading
03/10/2016 06:59:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil ASA: Jakob Stausholm leaves the board of directors of Statoil
22/09/2016 11:39:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil ASA: Completion of share capital increase in connection with the Dividend Issue for first quarter 2016
22/09/2016 06:52:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil ASA: Allocation of Dividend Shares to primary insiders
22/09/2016 06:52:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil ASA: Result of the Dividend Issue for the first quarter 2016
20/09/2016 06:34:00 GlobeNewswire Statoil's share saving plan allocates shares
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