Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TELENOR ASA. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|08Mar17 06:30||GNW||NTNU, Telenor and SINTEF open Norway's new powerhouse for Artificial Intelligence|
|23Feb17 03:16||GNW||Bharti Airtel to take ownership of Telenor's operations in India|
|02Feb17 06:00||GNW||Telenor reports fourth-quarter results|
|02Feb17 06:00||GNW||Telenor Capital Markets Day 2017|
|31Jan17 06:00||GNW||Telenor Group makes your car smart|
|19Jan17 07:00||GNW||Telenor Research on 2017 tech trends: The year of AI and social fatigue?|
|17Jan17 08:23||GNW||Presentation of Telenor Group's fourth quarter 2016 results on 2 February 2017|
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No surprise with the Q4 but Airtel could buy the Indian business
03 Feb 17
Q3 revenues have grown by 1% yoy at constant change, a sluggish performance in line with the 1.3% recorded during the first 9m. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA (excluding a provision of NOK0.3bn related to a decision by the Swedish Tax Agency regarding VAT treatment for 2013 and 2014) was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during the first 9m). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as in Myanmar. The Board of Directors proposes a dividend of NOK7.80 per share for 2016 (vs NOK7.75 in our model). The proposal is in line with Telenor’s ambition to deliver a yoy growth in dividends. In 2017, Telenor expects an organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2% and an EBITDA margin of around 36%. The capex to sales ratio excluding licences is expected to be 15% to 16%.
What future in India?
26 Oct 16
Q3 revenues have grown by 2% yoy at constant change, a slightly better performance than the poor growth of 1% recorded during H1. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during H1). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as an improved performance in India. But there are questions surrounding the future of the Indian activities after the entry of Reliance Jio on the Indian mobile market. This is why the fair value of the licences in Telenor India has been assessed, resulting in an impairment loss of NOK4bn! The current full-year guidance is maintained (organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2%, with an EBITDA margin of around 35%). Following the announcement on 5 October 2015 of its intention to divest its stake in VimpelCom, in Q3, Telenor disposed of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs (9.3% of its capital) for NOK4.6bn. After the disposal, the group’s ownership of VimpelCom reduced from 33% to 23.7%. A loss of NOK3.2bn was recognised in the income statement upon this disposal relating to the reclassification of translation differences previously recognised in other comprehensive income. During the first 9m, a total impairment loss of NOK0.6bn was recognised. Concurrently with the disposal of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs, Telenor issued bonds of $1bn exchangeable into VimpelCom ADSs and having a maturity of three years. VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associate company until a highly probable sale within 12 months of the remaining VimpelCom ADSs.
Improvement in the EBITDA margin but don't get too excited
19 Jul 16
Q2 revenues have increased by 0.6% yoy at constant currency. This clearly reflects the expected continuing growth slowdown for 2016 with only 1% yoy growth for H1 16 vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked slowdown in growth in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q2, in local currencies, revenues have declined by 10% yoy in Thailand and by 4% in Malaysia. Note, however, in Pakistan (+9%) and Bangladesh (+7%), the strong revenue growth continued during Q2 while Telenor has secured additional spectrum in Pakistan and completed a major 3G network expansion in Bangladesh. But the good news is that Q2 EBITDA grew by 5.6% yoy at constant currency. And although the group has cut its revenue growth guidance for 2016 from 2-4% to 1-2%, it has raised its EBITDA margin guidance from 34% to 35% (note we had already a 34.4% margin in our model). The EBITDA improvement is mainly driven by Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India more than offsetting the tougher market conditions in Malaysia and a lower contribution from Norway. Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Confirmation of slower growth
03 May 16
Q1 revenues have increased by 1.5% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2). This clearly reflects the expected growth slowdown for 2016. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked growth slowdown in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q1, in local currencies, Asian revenues declined by 2.6% yoy: indeed they have declined by 6% yoy in Thailand and Malaysia while they have increased by 9% in Bangladesh. The Q1 EBITDA grew by 5.3% yoy at constant currency but by only 3.3% excluding a positive one-time effect related to a settlement in Norkring (in the Broadcast division). Telenor still expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is unchanged with an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% and an EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 34.4% in our model). Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Pressure on margins for 2016
10 Feb 16
Q4 revenues have increased by 2% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 and +4% in Q3). This is 2% below our expectations. Note, however, the group has recorded a correct 4.7% organic growth for the whole year. The Q4 EBITDA margin was slightly better than expected at 32.4% (vs 30.6% a year ago). But this performance is due to the fact that during Q4 14 the group had recorded losses related to the mobile launch in Myanmar and to the integration of Tele2-Sweden. The EBITDA margin for the full year was indeed at 34.5% in 2015, exactly as in 2014. But Telenor expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% (3.75% in our model) but a slightly disappointing EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 35-36% in our model).
The case of Vimpelcom
12 Nov 15
Telenor said on Wednesday it has suspended two executives, including its CFO, as part of a deepening corruption investigation into VimpelCom. The Russian telco (33% owned by Telenor) is under investigation by police in Norway, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the US over payments made in connection to securing a network operating licence in Uzbekistan. Telenor has hired the law firm arm of Deloitte to review its relations with Vimpelcom. The suspensions come after Telenor on Monday severed its consultancy agreement with its former CEO Jon Fredrik Baksaas, who stepped down in August after 13 years at the helm, and after its chairman of the Board Svein Aaser was forced to resign last month (the Norwegian government, which holds 54% of Telenor having lost faith in Aaser due to his handling of the Vimpelcom case). They come also after a similar corruption probe into the dealings of TeliaSonera in Uzbekistan. Remember that Telia’s CEO and chairman were ousted two years ago. Knowing what was coming down the line, Telenor said at the start of October that it would sell its stake in VimpelCom.
FY 2016 results confirm further strong delivery
21 Mar 17
Gamma’s FY 2016 revenues, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS numbers were a touch ahead of our estimates. We make small upward adjustments to forecasts for all three years of our forecast horizon reflecting that performance. Gamma is capitalising on its position as a nimble player in an attractive marketplace. It made strong progress in 2016 as Voice over IP technology drove uptake of SIP Trunking and Hosted PBX services - both areas where Gamma has strong platforms. In addition, data services reflected Gamma’s investment in its network, channel partner numbers increased again and the indirect business accordingly showed strong revenue growth. The Direct Business also produced good growth and won some significant new contracts. The outlook statement is ’enthusiastic’ about the current year and comments that the Board ‘remains open to suitable M&A opportunities and areas for strategic capital investment’. Overall, an optimistic picture, in our view.
Making Mobiles Better
17 Jan 17
Mobile phones are increasingly the key connection for the modern world. This means that the performance of mobile phones, and their networks, is going to become more critical for all the apps and businesses that rely on them. New technologies such as VR, AR, and AV will need better, more reliable connections to really move into the mainstream. In this thematic piece we attempt to identify some of the most important issues facing mobile phone networks and their users, and start to identify solutions and enablers that will solve these problems and create value by doing so.
Panmure Morning Note 13-06-2016
13 Jun 16
More news on 5G means a favourable read-across for the key 5G ‘name’ – Spirent. Today the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs has gathered 10 partner organisations together to run a 5G test in North Groningen – tests to be carried out at the end of the year. This is favourable for Spirent as it illustrates that 5G is getting closer and with it raises the possibilities of earlier revenue opportunities for Spirent. Short term is good for share sentiment. We retain our Buy.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-02-2017
09 Feb 17
Amino Technologies (AMO LN) Benefits of recent acquisitions shining through | Media Bad advertising…Big agencies and Google in the firing line? | Travel & Leisure Enterprise Inns (ETI LN) (Not Rated) - Solid AGM update | Northgate (NTG LN) Reiterating our Buy stance after a positive meeting | Small-cap quantitative research New quality style screen + 11 quality focus stocks | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) Forecast upgrades after a solid Q3 update
20 Mar 17
Despite the University of Michigan releasing its preliminary reading of March consumer sentiment on Friday, which suggested US personal finance confidence rising again, this time to a 17-year high as the Nation effectively achieves full employment, US equities remained narrowly rangebound. Industrial production data also released held steady in February which, although slightly below market consensus, still provided underlying confidence in continued growth amid a pickup in manufacturing and mining activity. But this was not enough given receipt of a slightly less hawkish tenor from the Fed. The problem appears to be that investors have heard Trump ‘talk-the-talk’ but, as was seen with the latest judges’ ruling against his travel ban, they are not yet convinced he can ‘walk-the-walk’. Thursday’s White House budget proposals, which focussed on cutting funding for projects deemed to have regional benefits, in order to increase funding to those with national scope, compounded this with some commentators suggesting the new programs will be less effective than existing ones. The President’s joint address to Congress, calling for legislation to procure US$1tr to rebuild the country’s tired infrastructure, for example, makes for great soundbites but Congressional scrutiny, particularly from fiscal conservatives who are reluctant to back massive federal spending, looks set be arduous to say the least. So while the wall of money being liberated globally from bond market rout provides plenty of back pressure, investors appear to be waiting for a new injection of confidence before being prepared to push already heady equity valuations one further step further. Traders also appeared unimpressed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin rebuffing a concerted push by world finance chiefs to disavow protectionism, fanning fears that the Trump administration's pursuit of an ‘America First’ policy could ignite global trade conflicts. With many officials suggesting they departed the G-20 meeting confused about where the new administration will ultimately land on trade policy, US equities ended mixed with only the NASDAQ able to put on a minute gain helped by Adobe, while the other two principal US indices were knocked by continued selling of health-care stocks, in particular Amgen which had released disappointing results from a cholesterol drug study. The cautionary mood spread to Asia, where only the Hang Seng put on a modest gain while the region’s other indices stayed in the red with the Nikkei being closed for a holiday. Important macro data from London today is limited to the Rightmove House Price Index for February which was released at midnight at +2.3% y-o-y, in line with expectations, while the EU produces Q4 Labour Costs; the US provides its Chicago Fed National Activity Index and later the Fed’s Charles Evans is due to make a speech. UK corporates due to report today include Volution Group (FAN.L), Satellite Solutions Worldwide (SAT.L), Frenkel Topping Group (FEN.L), Phoenix Group (PHNX.L) and Finsbury Food Group (FIF.L). Equities in London as seen similarly lacklustre this morning, with the FTSE-100 see moving 5 to 10 down in early trading.
The Joy of Techs
15 Aug 16
Mobile money has been slow to deliver but investors need to stay engaged as there are plenty of reasons as there are plenty of reasons for success. Mobile penetration and network coverage are growing inexorably and where communication leads, transactions follow, as e-commerce has proven. Banking and payments lead the way but it will embrace other financial services too, from insurance to cross-border remittance. Slowly but surely, mobile money is coming of age.