Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TELENOR ASA. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|02Feb17 06:00||GNW||Telenor reports fourth-quarter results|
|02Feb17 06:00||GNW||Telenor Capital Markets Day 2017|
|31Jan17 06:00||GNW||Telenor Group makes your car smart|
|19Jan17 07:00||GNW||Telenor Research on 2017 tech trends: The year of AI and social fatigue?|
|17Jan17 08:23||GNW||Presentation of Telenor Group's fourth quarter 2016 results on 2 February 2017|
|12Jan17 07:00||GNW||Telenor makes organisational changes|
|06Jan17 11:53||GNW||Invitation to Telenor Group's Capital Markets Day on 2 February 2017|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
No surprise with the Q4 but Airtel could buy the Indian business
03 Feb 17
Q3 revenues have grown by 1% yoy at constant change, a sluggish performance in line with the 1.3% recorded during the first 9m. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA (excluding a provision of NOK0.3bn related to a decision by the Swedish Tax Agency regarding VAT treatment for 2013 and 2014) was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during the first 9m). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as in Myanmar. The Board of Directors proposes a dividend of NOK7.80 per share for 2016 (vs NOK7.75 in our model). The proposal is in line with Telenor’s ambition to deliver a yoy growth in dividends. In 2017, Telenor expects an organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2% and an EBITDA margin of around 36%. The capex to sales ratio excluding licences is expected to be 15% to 16%.
What future in India?
26 Oct 16
Q3 revenues have grown by 2% yoy at constant change, a slightly better performance than the poor growth of 1% recorded during H1. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during H1). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as an improved performance in India. But there are questions surrounding the future of the Indian activities after the entry of Reliance Jio on the Indian mobile market. This is why the fair value of the licences in Telenor India has been assessed, resulting in an impairment loss of NOK4bn! The current full-year guidance is maintained (organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2%, with an EBITDA margin of around 35%). Following the announcement on 5 October 2015 of its intention to divest its stake in VimpelCom, in Q3, Telenor disposed of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs (9.3% of its capital) for NOK4.6bn. After the disposal, the group’s ownership of VimpelCom reduced from 33% to 23.7%. A loss of NOK3.2bn was recognised in the income statement upon this disposal relating to the reclassification of translation differences previously recognised in other comprehensive income. During the first 9m, a total impairment loss of NOK0.6bn was recognised. Concurrently with the disposal of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs, Telenor issued bonds of $1bn exchangeable into VimpelCom ADSs and having a maturity of three years. VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associate company until a highly probable sale within 12 months of the remaining VimpelCom ADSs.
Improvement in the EBITDA margin but don't get too excited
19 Jul 16
Q2 revenues have increased by 0.6% yoy at constant currency. This clearly reflects the expected continuing growth slowdown for 2016 with only 1% yoy growth for H1 16 vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked slowdown in growth in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q2, in local currencies, revenues have declined by 10% yoy in Thailand and by 4% in Malaysia. Note, however, in Pakistan (+9%) and Bangladesh (+7%), the strong revenue growth continued during Q2 while Telenor has secured additional spectrum in Pakistan and completed a major 3G network expansion in Bangladesh. But the good news is that Q2 EBITDA grew by 5.6% yoy at constant currency. And although the group has cut its revenue growth guidance for 2016 from 2-4% to 1-2%, it has raised its EBITDA margin guidance from 34% to 35% (note we had already a 34.4% margin in our model). The EBITDA improvement is mainly driven by Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India more than offsetting the tougher market conditions in Malaysia and a lower contribution from Norway. Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Confirmation of slower growth
03 May 16
Q1 revenues have increased by 1.5% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2). This clearly reflects the expected growth slowdown for 2016. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked growth slowdown in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q1, in local currencies, Asian revenues declined by 2.6% yoy: indeed they have declined by 6% yoy in Thailand and Malaysia while they have increased by 9% in Bangladesh. The Q1 EBITDA grew by 5.3% yoy at constant currency but by only 3.3% excluding a positive one-time effect related to a settlement in Norkring (in the Broadcast division). Telenor still expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is unchanged with an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% and an EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 34.4% in our model). Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Pressure on margins for 2016
10 Feb 16
Q4 revenues have increased by 2% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 and +4% in Q3). This is 2% below our expectations. Note, however, the group has recorded a correct 4.7% organic growth for the whole year. The Q4 EBITDA margin was slightly better than expected at 32.4% (vs 30.6% a year ago). But this performance is due to the fact that during Q4 14 the group had recorded losses related to the mobile launch in Myanmar and to the integration of Tele2-Sweden. The EBITDA margin for the full year was indeed at 34.5% in 2015, exactly as in 2014. But Telenor expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% (3.75% in our model) but a slightly disappointing EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 35-36% in our model).
The case of Vimpelcom
12 Nov 15
Telenor said on Wednesday it has suspended two executives, including its CFO, as part of a deepening corruption investigation into VimpelCom. The Russian telco (33% owned by Telenor) is under investigation by police in Norway, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the US over payments made in connection to securing a network operating licence in Uzbekistan. Telenor has hired the law firm arm of Deloitte to review its relations with Vimpelcom. The suspensions come after Telenor on Monday severed its consultancy agreement with its former CEO Jon Fredrik Baksaas, who stepped down in August after 13 years at the helm, and after its chairman of the Board Svein Aaser was forced to resign last month (the Norwegian government, which holds 54% of Telenor having lost faith in Aaser due to his handling of the Vimpelcom case). They come also after a similar corruption probe into the dealings of TeliaSonera in Uzbekistan. Remember that Telia’s CEO and chairman were ousted two years ago. Knowing what was coming down the line, Telenor said at the start of October that it would sell its stake in VimpelCom.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Small Cap Breakfast
16 Feb 17
Saffron Energy—Schedule One update. Raising £2.5m, expected Mkt Cap £7.7m. Admission due 24 Feb. Italian Oil & Gas Play Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Issue closing 23 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science Company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management
Small Cap Breakfast
09 Feb 17
GBGI—Schedule One from the integrated provider of international benefits insurance focused on providing tailored insurance products. Looking to raise £32m with admission expected 22 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management Ramsdens Holdings –Schedule One from the financial services provider and retailer, operating in the core business segments of foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, precious metals buying and selling and retailing of second hand and new jewellery. Expected admission to AIM 15 Feb raising circa £15.6m. Expected mkt cap £26.5m.
The Joy of Techs
15 Aug 16
Mobile money has been an awkward area for investors and industry alike. There have been too many new arrivals offering too many new solutions, leading to a confusing plethora of payment methods for both consumers and retailers, championed by varying stakeholders: banks, credit card suppliers or mobile network operators (MNOs). In this, the mobile money industry has ignored the key element of currency – that it is universally recognised and accepted. The confusion of competing payment methods inevitably led to numerous failures. The industry has promised much: a total technological revamping of the monetary systems in place since ancient times, in a short space of time, but has delivered little to date. However, that is not to say changes aren’t happening.
Prospects electrify; return of cash
07 Dec 16
The sale of the Opus Energy stake to Drax Group is expected to complete during calendar 1Q17, injecting £71m into the balance sheet. With manageable net debt/EBITDA close to 1x, the board expects to return all proceeds to shareholders through a tender offer around the time of prelims, expected June 2017. Telecom Plus’ interims had reported performance in line with mildly tweaked forecasts. While 3 of the "big 6" utility providers committed to price freezes through winter, the implication is for price rises subsequently, from the beginning of TEP’s FY18 (y/e March). The collapse of GB Energy shows that the cheapest utility providers’ business models are unsustainable, which compounds interest from willing and concerned consumers, and re-incentivises the self-employed sales force, as the competitive landscape rebalances. With positive catalysts lining up to lift the share price, we lift our twelve-month target price to 1360p.
New Screen – Consistent Growth + “11 with legs”
17 Dec 15
To represent the theme of “Consistent Growth”, we introduce our second basket of small-cap stocks selected by a screening process. This will sit alongside our first (deep value) basket introduced and described in our note dated 26th May 2015 (Our first screen – 10 deep value stocks to consider). The screening criteria address both the extent AND the quality of growth in EPS and sales, which we consider add a worthwhile additional element to stock selection. The process results in a basket of 25 stocks, the performance of which we will track over time, allowing comparison of investment styles, but also highlighting interesting companies. We have taken a closer look at 11 stocks “11 with legs” (see list on the right) in this screen.