Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TELENOR ASA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|26Oct16 06:00||GNW||Telenor reports third quarter results|
|19Oct16 04:00||GNW||Petter-B. Furberg appointed CEO of Grameenphone|
|10Oct16 10:48||GNW||Presentation of Telenor Group's third quarter 2016 results on 26 October 2016|
|16Sep16 07:00||GNW||Telenor announces pricing of its offering of VimpelCom ADSs|
|12Sep16 09:46||GNW||Telenor commences sale of a portion of its stake in VimpelCom Ltd.|
|06Sep16 08:00||GNW||Deeyah Khan awarded Telenor Culture Prize 2016|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
What future in India?
26 Oct 16
Q3 revenues have grown by 2% yoy at constant change, a slightly better performance than the poor growth of 1% recorded during H1. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during H1). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as an improved performance in India. But there are questions surrounding the future of the Indian activities after the entry of Reliance Jio on the Indian mobile market. This is why the fair value of the licences in Telenor India has been assessed, resulting in an impairment loss of NOK4bn! The current full-year guidance is maintained (organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2%, with an EBITDA margin of around 35%). Following the announcement on 5 October 2015 of its intention to divest its stake in VimpelCom, in Q3, Telenor disposed of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs (9.3% of its capital) for NOK4.6bn. After the disposal, the group’s ownership of VimpelCom reduced from 33% to 23.7%. A loss of NOK3.2bn was recognised in the income statement upon this disposal relating to the reclassification of translation differences previously recognised in other comprehensive income. During the first 9m, a total impairment loss of NOK0.6bn was recognised. Concurrently with the disposal of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs, Telenor issued bonds of $1bn exchangeable into VimpelCom ADSs and having a maturity of three years. VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associate company until a highly probable sale within 12 months of the remaining VimpelCom ADSs.
Improvement in the EBITDA margin but don't get too excited
19 Jul 16
Q2 revenues have increased by 0.6% yoy at constant currency. This clearly reflects the expected continuing growth slowdown for 2016 with only 1% yoy growth for H1 16 vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked slowdown in growth in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q2, in local currencies, revenues have declined by 10% yoy in Thailand and by 4% in Malaysia. Note, however, in Pakistan (+9%) and Bangladesh (+7%), the strong revenue growth continued during Q2 while Telenor has secured additional spectrum in Pakistan and completed a major 3G network expansion in Bangladesh. But the good news is that Q2 EBITDA grew by 5.6% yoy at constant currency. And although the group has cut its revenue growth guidance for 2016 from 2-4% to 1-2%, it has raised its EBITDA margin guidance from 34% to 35% (note we had already a 34.4% margin in our model). The EBITDA improvement is mainly driven by Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India more than offsetting the tougher market conditions in Malaysia and a lower contribution from Norway. Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Confirmation of slower growth
03 May 16
Q1 revenues have increased by 1.5% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2). This clearly reflects the expected growth slowdown for 2016. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked growth slowdown in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q1, in local currencies, Asian revenues declined by 2.6% yoy: indeed they have declined by 6% yoy in Thailand and Malaysia while they have increased by 9% in Bangladesh. The Q1 EBITDA grew by 5.3% yoy at constant currency but by only 3.3% excluding a positive one-time effect related to a settlement in Norkring (in the Broadcast division). Telenor still expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is unchanged with an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% and an EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 34.4% in our model). Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Pressure on margins for 2016
10 Feb 16
Q4 revenues have increased by 2% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 and +4% in Q3). This is 2% below our expectations. Note, however, the group has recorded a correct 4.7% organic growth for the whole year. The Q4 EBITDA margin was slightly better than expected at 32.4% (vs 30.6% a year ago). But this performance is due to the fact that during Q4 14 the group had recorded losses related to the mobile launch in Myanmar and to the integration of Tele2-Sweden. The EBITDA margin for the full year was indeed at 34.5% in 2015, exactly as in 2014. But Telenor expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% (3.75% in our model) but a slightly disappointing EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 35-36% in our model).
The case of Vimpelcom
12 Nov 15
Telenor said on Wednesday it has suspended two executives, including its CFO, as part of a deepening corruption investigation into VimpelCom. The Russian telco (33% owned by Telenor) is under investigation by police in Norway, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the US over payments made in connection to securing a network operating licence in Uzbekistan. Telenor has hired the law firm arm of Deloitte to review its relations with Vimpelcom. The suspensions come after Telenor on Monday severed its consultancy agreement with its former CEO Jon Fredrik Baksaas, who stepped down in August after 13 years at the helm, and after its chairman of the Board Svein Aaser was forced to resign last month (the Norwegian government, which holds 54% of Telenor having lost faith in Aaser due to his handling of the Vimpelcom case). They come also after a similar corruption probe into the dealings of TeliaSonera in Uzbekistan. Remember that Telia’s CEO and chairman were ousted two years ago. Knowing what was coming down the line, Telenor said at the start of October that it would sell its stake in VimpelCom.
Q3 in line with expectations and sale of Telenor's shares in Vimpelcom
02 Nov 15
Q3 revenues have increased by 4% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1). This is the expected number even if it is 1% below our expectations. Note management, which had revised upward the range of the outlook for 2015 from 4-6% to 5-7% just after the Q1 results, is now targeting only 5% growth for the whole year. The Q3 EBITDA margin remained stable at 37%. This performance is in line with our expectations. The EBITDA margin for the full year should be 35%, in the middle of the range given by management for 2015 (34-36%) after the Q1.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 03-11-2016
03 Nov 16
Overall trading for the year appears to have started slightly slowly overall but with underlying revenues making progress and profits flat for the period. Slow profit progress was already expected due to the previously signalled growth orientated investment being made. A material timing change on a Compliance unit contract, strong growth in AXCO and buoyant Health performance bode well for revenue performance looking forward. Visibility levels are said to be good underpinning managements confidence that the group is on track for the year. Wilmington remains a good play on the growth in global regulation and compliance. BUY
Currency volatility contrasts with equity stability
11 Oct 16
Exchange rate volatility has been the prime concern for markets over the last few days. Corporate developments have continued and the peak of the company reporting season has passed with the vast majority of results as anticipated. The question now remains that if so-called “hard” Brexit is the way ahead, what this will mean for UK PLC as opposed to International PLC as highlighted by the FTSE 100. The forthcoming Autumn Statement on 23 November will reflect the latest forecasts from the OBR for the economy and public finances. This is just a fortnight after the US Presidential Election 2016.