Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TELENOR ASA. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|19Apr17 08:21||GNW||Presentation of Telenor Group's first quarter 2017 results on 4 May 2017|
|07Apr17 06:04||GNW||Telenor announces pricing of its offering of 70 million VEON common shares and ADSs|
|06Apr17 22:06||GNW||Telenor to sell additional shares in VEON Ltd.|
|04Apr17 06:01||GNW||Telenor Group launches IoT pilot for Norwegian entrepreneurs|
|08Mar17 06:30||GNW||NTNU, Telenor and SINTEF open Norway's new powerhouse for Artificial Intelligence|
|23Feb17 03:16||GNW||Bharti Airtel to take ownership of Telenor's operations in India|
|02Feb17 06:00||GNW||Telenor reports fourth-quarter results|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
No surprise with the Q4 but Airtel could buy the Indian business
03 Feb 17
Q3 revenues have grown by 1% yoy at constant change, a sluggish performance in line with the 1.3% recorded during the first 9m. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA (excluding a provision of NOK0.3bn related to a decision by the Swedish Tax Agency regarding VAT treatment for 2013 and 2014) was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during the first 9m). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as in Myanmar. The Board of Directors proposes a dividend of NOK7.80 per share for 2016 (vs NOK7.75 in our model). The proposal is in line with Telenor’s ambition to deliver a yoy growth in dividends. In 2017, Telenor expects an organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2% and an EBITDA margin of around 36%. The capex to sales ratio excluding licences is expected to be 15% to 16%.
What future in India?
26 Oct 16
Q3 revenues have grown by 2% yoy at constant change, a slightly better performance than the poor growth of 1% recorded during H1. The increase was driven by the ARPU uplift in Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as continued growth in Myanmar. This was partly offset by lower outbound roaming revenues in the Scandinavian operations and still intense competition in Thailand and Malaysia. EBITDA was up by 5%, a solid performance but in line with expectations (and with the 5% recorded during H1). The margin improvement is a result of strong margins in Bangladesh as well as an improved performance in India. But there are questions surrounding the future of the Indian activities after the entry of Reliance Jio on the Indian mobile market. This is why the fair value of the licences in Telenor India has been assessed, resulting in an impairment loss of NOK4bn! The current full-year guidance is maintained (organic revenue growth in the range of 1% to 2%, with an EBITDA margin of around 35%). Following the announcement on 5 October 2015 of its intention to divest its stake in VimpelCom, in Q3, Telenor disposed of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs (9.3% of its capital) for NOK4.6bn. After the disposal, the group’s ownership of VimpelCom reduced from 33% to 23.7%. A loss of NOK3.2bn was recognised in the income statement upon this disposal relating to the reclassification of translation differences previously recognised in other comprehensive income. During the first 9m, a total impairment loss of NOK0.6bn was recognised. Concurrently with the disposal of 163.9m VimpelCom ADSs, Telenor issued bonds of $1bn exchangeable into VimpelCom ADSs and having a maturity of three years. VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associate company until a highly probable sale within 12 months of the remaining VimpelCom ADSs.
Improvement in the EBITDA margin but don't get too excited
19 Jul 16
Q2 revenues have increased by 0.6% yoy at constant currency. This clearly reflects the expected continuing growth slowdown for 2016 with only 1% yoy growth for H1 16 vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked slowdown in growth in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q2, in local currencies, revenues have declined by 10% yoy in Thailand and by 4% in Malaysia. Note, however, in Pakistan (+9%) and Bangladesh (+7%), the strong revenue growth continued during Q2 while Telenor has secured additional spectrum in Pakistan and completed a major 3G network expansion in Bangladesh.
Confirmation of slower growth
03 May 16
Q1 revenues have increased by 1.5% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 15 and +3% in H2). This clearly reflects the expected growth slowdown for 2016. In 2015, Telenor had already posted a pretty marked growth slowdown in Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand (40% of Telenor’s revenues). Adjusted for the currency effects, the group had recorded only stable revenues in these countries whereas they had been growth engines in the past. This is quite a big question mark for the future. In Q1, in local currencies, Asian revenues declined by 2.6% yoy: indeed they have declined by 6% yoy in Thailand and Malaysia while they have increased by 9% in Bangladesh. The Q1 EBITDA grew by 5.3% yoy at constant currency but by only 3.3% excluding a positive one-time effect related to a settlement in Norkring (in the Broadcast division). Telenor still expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is unchanged with an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% and an EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 34.4% in our model). Remember, VimpelCom will continue to be classified as an associated company until a highly likely sale within the next 12 months.
Pressure on margins for 2016
10 Feb 16
Q4 revenues have increased by 2% yoy at constant currency (vs +7% in H1 and +4% in Q3). This is 2% below our expectations. Note, however, the group has recorded a correct 4.7% organic growth for the whole year. The Q4 EBITDA margin was slightly better than expected at 32.4% (vs 30.6% a year ago). But this performance is due to the fact that during Q4 14 the group had recorded losses related to the mobile launch in Myanmar and to the integration of Tele2-Sweden. The EBITDA margin for the full year was indeed at 34.5% in 2015, exactly as in 2014. But Telenor expects fierce competition and headwinds in key markets such as Thailand and Malaysia in 2016. This will put pressure on EBITDA margin expectations. Based on this, the financial guidance for 2016 is an expected organic revenue growth in the range of 2% to 4% (3.75% in our model) but a slightly disappointing EBITDA margin of 33-34% (vs 35-36% in our model).
The case of Vimpelcom
12 Nov 15
Telenor said on Wednesday it has suspended two executives, including its CFO, as part of a deepening corruption investigation into VimpelCom. The Russian telco (33% owned by Telenor) is under investigation by police in Norway, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the US over payments made in connection to securing a network operating licence in Uzbekistan. Telenor has hired the law firm arm of Deloitte to review its relations with Vimpelcom. The suspensions come after Telenor on Monday severed its consultancy agreement with its former CEO Jon Fredrik Baksaas, who stepped down in August after 13 years at the helm, and after its chairman of the Board Svein Aaser was forced to resign last month (the Norwegian government, which holds 54% of Telenor having lost faith in Aaser due to his handling of the Vimpelcom case). They come also after a similar corruption probe into the dealings of TeliaSonera in Uzbekistan. Remember that Telia’s CEO and chairman were ousted two years ago. Knowing what was coming down the line, Telenor said at the start of October that it would sell its stake in VimpelCom.
20 Apr 17
TEP’s trading update for the year to March 2017 highlights modest growth as expected, with a total dividend of 48p (25p final dividend) in line (49pE). FY18 forecasts are trimmed 3% at adjusted PBT level, to remain in line with FY17, with better quality customers taking all possible services – at a higher cost of acquisition but better prospective year 2 margins. With the positive outlook that a narrowing of the gap between standard variable energy tariffs and aggressively priced introductory deals has led to an encouraging upward trend in Q4 to March, prospects for restored growth in revenue (FY18) and profit (FY19) are strong. Improved incentivisation of the self employed salesforce, after a few years of lower growth, is complemented by the imminent addition of Home Insurance, adding sales momentum and increased customer interest as utility prices rise. With the double upside to the £70m tender offer in summer, and the June release of FY19 forecasts illustrating growth following greater detail available at prelims, the future is brighter for TEP. Target 1360p reiterated.
Northland Capital Morning Report
02 Dec 15
Divergence looks set to dominate the final month of 2015 and set the tone for 2016. The European Central Bank is widely expected to extend its QE economic stimulus programme and could reduce its overnight deposit rate further in an attempt to boost inflation, and more stimulus could come from Japan and China. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is now expected to lift rates from historic lows. Higher US rates will impact not only the cost of capital in the US but also emerging markets where growth remains much weaker and leverage high. The move by the ECB is unlikely to have a major impact, however, as it is an extension rather than a new tool and the headlines continue to be dominated by politics rather than financial markets (Isis, the refugee/migrant crisis, tensions between Russia and Turkey etc). The respective moves are likely to further weaken the euro in 2016. The UK sits somewhere in the middle. November’s Autumn Statement saw the Chancellor drop his tax credit reduction plans and benefit from a surprise £27bn improvement in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s five year public finances forecast, based on higher tax revenue and lower debt interest. The general shift away from austerity, the protection of tax credits and increased minimum wage should ensure further economic growth.
Strong performance in the non-legacy business
20 Apr 17
TomTom reported Q1 revenues of €212.7m, down 2% yoy and 19.9% sequentially. Consumer decreased by 16% yoy to €98m, representing the main down-mover. The three other businesses combined grew by 14.1% to €114.7m, with in decreasing order Automotive (€41.1m, +38.4% yoy), Telematics (€40.6m, +9.4%) and Licensing (€33m, -2.1%). The gross margin came in at 62.2%, up 540bp yoy, while the EBIT margin lost 30bp to -2.3% (-€4.8m). EPS came in at €-0.02 and adjusted EPS at €0.03. The company re-iterated its guidance for FY17 with adjusted EPS of around €0.25 and revenues of between €1,025 and €1,050m.
31 Jan 17
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