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Organic Q3 EBITDA grew strongly by 7% yoy, which was comfortably better than expected. In the Nordics the group now looks able to achieve c.6% EBITDA growth in the coming quarters. Furthermore, coupled with a capex decline, Telenor is entering a virtuous circle. Telenor has also received dividends from CelcomDigi showing that the merger in Malaysia is already dividend neutral. Telenor’s dividend yield stands above the average of its best-in-class peers (4.5/5%) at 8.2%. We maintain our Buy on
Companies: TELENOR (TEL:STO)Telenor ASA (TEL:OSL)
AlphaValue
Q2 revenues (+3% yoy) were in line with our expectations but the EBITDA (up by 4% yoy) is no longer lagging revenue growth – something which had been the case owing to the increase in energy costs. Telenor’s secure dividend yield still stands undeservedly well above the average of its best-in-class peers at 7.5%. We maintain our strong Buy on the stock.
Q1 revenues (+4% yoy) were in line with our expectations as was the EBITDA, (up by only 2% yoy and still lagging revenue growth due to the increase in energy costs). The main point regarding Telenor is that, with the completion of the mergers in Thailand and Malaysia, dtac and Digi are now de-consolidated. Telenor’s secure dividend yield still stands undeservedly above the average of its best-in-class peers at 7.5%. We maintain our Add on the stock.
The outlook for 2022 finally remains unchanged as the significant increase in energy prices weighing on the EBITDA (a 3% impact) was offset in Q3 by a positive one-time effect in Pakistan. We are not expecting a dividend increase for 2022 but neither should there be a dividend cut. So with a current dividend yield of 10.3% and a share buyback representing 2/2.5% of the market cap it is now clearly time to buy Telenor.
Telcos have had 2 difficult months in the stock market as, despite being considered defensive, their dividend yields have proven too… low in this period of rising rates. Telenor will neither increase (nor decrease) its dividend for 2022 but should proceed with a 2% share buyback. With a 9.5% dividend yield and this share buyback program it’s now time to take another look at telcos like Telenor which seem to be offering a very secure and high dividend yield.
The group still expects EBITDA growth to lag revenue growth for a few quarters while, in Asia, the outlook for 2022 remains uncertain. Short term, with zero EBITDA growth and with capex still at a high level, a dividend increase for 2022 should not be expected. We maintain our Buy opinion because things could improve greatly in future in Asia with the major deals announced over the past year.
Companies: Telenor ASA (0G8C:LON)Telenor ASA (TEL:OSL)
The Q1 was slightly disappointing with revenues up by only 0.5% yoy and lfl while the EBITDA was down by 2.5%. Although the group still remains affected by the drop in tourism in Asia and particularly in Thailand, 2022 could be better than the poor outlook suggests but above all 2023 should be a year of solid growth. And, given the solid expansion via the mergers expected in Asia over the coming years, we maintain our Buy on the stock.
Although Q4 revenues were in line with expectations, EBITDA was however disappointing. In 2022, EBITDA should be around the 2021 level or slightly higher: this guidance is more cautious than expected. Although the group still remains affected by the pandemic and the drop in tourism in Asia, 2022 could be better than the poor outlook suggests. And, given the solid expansion in Asia expected over the coming years, we believe that buying Telenor today offers a good risk reward.
Telenor has agreed with Charoen Pokphand Group to explore the combination of Telenor’s DTAC and True in Thailand. The new company could have c.55m mobile customers and revenues of c.€6bn. This deal should allow Telenor to strengthen its position in Thailand, a country where mobile activities should experience strong growth in 2022-23 if the recovery in tourism is there. However, Thailand is a three-player market and the deal could be stopped by the regulator. We maintain our opinion at Buy.
Quite a solid performance for the group in Q2 with revenues and EBITDA up respectively by 3.3% and 3.6% yoy and lfl. The stock has just recovered from its pre-COVID-19 level and we maintain our positive stance on Telenor. The group still remains affected by the pandemic and the drop in tourism in Asia but 2022 is taking a good shape (with also the sale of the Myanmar activities and a merger with Axiata in Malaysia).
Q1 performance was globally in line with expectations and quite similar to those of the two previous quarters excluding Myanmar whose overall situation remains difficult. The business continues, however, to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular in Asia and through the reduction in roaming revenues. We maintain our Buy on the stock.
Like in the previous quarters, the good news is that the revenue decline due to a continued roaming shortfall, in particular in Asia, was more than compensated by an opex reduction of 7%, resulting in a flat EBITDA. The stock is still down by 12.5% compared to its pre-COVID-19 level, while the dividend is rising by 3%. We maintain our opinion at Buy on the stock.
Companies: Telenor ASA
Launches a 5G version of FWA (broadband) – no impact on estimates M&A speculation in Europe: Vodaphone and Masmovil (once again) Recent EU ruling on 02/Hutchinson a catalyst for European consolidation?
Arctic Securities
The awaited Swedish spectrum auction today is delayed The authority is reviewing the validity of the Huawei restriction 1H/21 auctions in Scandinavia likely not material, Asia main uncertainty
Telia announces an unlimited subscription – following Telenor Norway Spectrum auctions in Sweden next week: do not expect it to be material 1H/21 auctions in Norway/Denmark likely not material, Asia uncertainty Capacity increased through both spectrum and increased efficiency on 5G
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Telenor ASA. We currently have 177 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
Just 15 months after winning its first order in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communications market, Filtronic has announced a 5-year strategic partnership with SpaceX which includes an initial $19.7m (£15.8m) E-band amplifier production order for delivery in FY25. As a result, we upgrade our FY24/FY25 forecasts and lift our target price to 57.4p (was 37.5p), equivalent to 74% upside. Although this is the first time SpaceX’s Starlink has been named as a Filtronic customer, this is now the
Companies: Filtronic plc
Cavendish
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
Filtronic has signed a strategic partnership and commercial agreement with SpaceX which includes a production order worth £15.8m and warrants that could be exercised for up to 10% of existing share capital. Filtronic announced its first orders from SpaceX in January 2023, although the customer was unnamed at that point. Since then, SpaceX has placed orders totalling $43m (including yesterday’s order) for products to support the build out of its Starlink low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellat
Edison
24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: FTC AGL SRT SOU G4M AOM SUP
Hybridan
CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
SRT Marine Systems has reported a change of year end from 12-months to March 2024 to 15-months to June 2024, with revenue forecasts extended by three months for both new year ends, and an encouraging operational update. The company is concerned that government related paperwork on two existing CG projects (SEA and ME) may not be completed in time for a March invoice and risks falling into the next quarter. In one jurisdiction where there a number of new project prospects, the company must meet s
Companies: SRT Marine Systems plc
Filtronic’s recent investment and focus on high-performance radio frequency (RF) design and manufacturing is starting to pay off, with recent new customer wins, development contracts and volume production orders boosting the order backlog. H124 results do not reflect this recent success: revenue was essentially flat and investment in sales and engineering reduced EBITDA. However, the strong backlog gives management confidence that revenue and profit will exceed consensus estimates for FY24 and F
Companies: PHC SRT DCTA
Calnex has released a pre-close trading update for the year to March 2024, indicating that revenue would be £16.3m, c£0.7m below our forecast, partly due to the timing of orders at the end of the period. Group trading has been impacted by the well-documented, continuing challenges in the Telecoms sector which have seen delayed project timings leading to corresponding delays in customer spending. Administrative costs are being controlled and are focussed on maintaining R&D. Calnex remains confide
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
Filtronic has reported results in-line with management expectations for H1/24, and now expects to perform ahead of our forecasts for FY24E and FY25E in terms of revenue and profit. We are raising our revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E by 14.6% and 6.2% respectively, and our EBITDA forecasts by 85.2% and 28.0% respectively. The increase in expectation is driven by a strong recent acceleration in order flow, including a £7.8m order announced today. In this report we present a detailed review of
6th February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje
Companies: ROQ NCYT ALU FTC ECK ORCP BIOM PYC SPR REAT
FY23 revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations. The major news was that BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff. At the end of the decade the EBITDA could reach £11bn with the massive restructuring announced and capex could return to €3.5bn per year. EBITDA less capex could be multiplied by 2.5 and therefore also the dividend. This could value BT at 385 pence at that time. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Companies: BT Group plc
A decent Q1 performance despite the expected headwinds from cost-of-living pressure and cost inflation. The group is clearly a fairly safe long-term buy and hold. BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff by the end of the decade. In parallel it is further accelerating its FTTP deployment with high capex. But at the end of this phase EBITDA-capex could be multiplied by 2.5. Speculation could also again reignite as Drahi’s empire (owning 24.5% of BT) is being shaken by corruption cases.
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