Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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Stronger resilience on cost flexibility and benign cost of risk
22 Jul 16
The group reported better-than-expected second quarter results thanks to impressive efficiency gains and a benign cost of risk. This has more than offset the sharper impact of low interest rates on the net interest income. The capital position has improved markedly.
Carry-trade normalisation continues to weigh on profit trajectory
17 May 16
The quarterly results were impacted by the ongoing reduction of the strong contribution from carry-trade gains and to a lesser extent by the stock market’s turmoil and the new customer centric commercial strategy. On the positive side, the reduction in operating costs and loan impairments are ahead of expectations. The solvency position improved further but remains strongly reliant on deferred tax assets.
Favourable operating trends hidden by carry trade attrition
02 Feb 16
Bankia released better than expected quarterly results. Management will disclose its new business plan within two months. The cost of risk is expected to overshoot this year, helping to alleviate the top line pressure stemming from carry trade attrition and commercial efforts to strengthen the franchise. Regulatory and legal risks are not seen material enough to undermine the equity position.
SREP and final IPO related charge disclosure
24 Dec 15
Spanish banks are disclosing for the first time their SREP ratio, in other words the minimum equity requirement as set by the ECB. For 2016, Bankia has been notified of a higher-than-expected 10.25% objective. Last but not least, the group also announced that it has reached an agreement with its parent company, BFA, about the sharing of the charge derived from the lawsuit brought by retail shareholders in relation to Bankia’s IPO. This will translate into the booking of an extra €424m provision in the fourth quarter of this year.
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Highly concentrated portfolio, strong performance
26 Oct 16
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) aims to generate long-term growth in capital and income from a concentrated portfolio of primarily UK equities, which are held for the long term. FGT is benchmarked against the FTSE All-Share index, but is not constrained by its composition; c 70% of the portfolio is invested in consumer stocks. The trust has a progressive dividend policy and annual dividends have compounded by 6.9% pa since FY11; the current dividend yield is 2.0%. FGT has outperformed its peers and the benchmark over one, three, five and 10 years. Strong investor demand along with capital appreciation means the size of the trust has grown significantly; assets under management now approach £1bn.
21 Oct 16
STM* (STM): Acquisition of London & Colonial (CORP) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): £70m placing and open offer (BUY) | Firestone Diamonds* (FDI): Liqhobong commissioning update (BUY) | Accsys (AXS): Acorn aiming to be a mighty oak – analyst interview (BUY) | Avacta* (AVCT): Act now… – analyst interview (CORP) | Tristel* (TSTL): Full year 2016 results – analyst interview (CORP)
Acquisition of London & Colonial
21 Oct 16
The acquisition of LCH for up to £5.4m adds a SIPP offer to STM’s portfolio as well as strengthening the group's Life and QROPS books. Employing cash, debt and an element of deferred purchase terms makes the deal usefully earnings-enhancing, adding £0.5m to 2017 estimates. Forecast EPS of 5.9p for 2017 places the shares on a PE multiple of 8.0x, while retaining net cash on the balance sheet leaves the group well positioned to maintain its commitment to a progressive dividend policy.
UK Housebuilding Sector: Q3 2016 - “I am Steve McQueen”
11 Oct 16
Steve was street savvy, but he was not the smartest knife in the drawer, which makes his Delphic comment to Robert Vaughn all the more surprising. What Steve was saying is that “it’s not over yet”; that there is still a lot more to come (sadly for McQueen, who died in 1980 aged 50, it was a future that was not his). The same is true of Brexit and the collateral undulations that it has riven in the UK Housebuilding Sector. Immediately post-the-Brexit-vote, the UK Housebuilding Sector tanked 36% in value in two trading days (24 and 27 June with a weekend in between); and at one stage was off almost 40%.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-10-2016
24 Oct 16
Sigma has announced that a major £39m regeneration scheme near Liverpool Lime Street has been launched with funding from a new partner, Curlew. The scheme will include retail/leisure space, a 101 bedroom hotel pre-let to Premier Inn and a 412 student accommodation building. Construction will begin by the end of 2016. Sigma continues to pursue regeneration opportunities which reinforce delivery capabilities and are complementary to core PRS activities. We make no changes to our forecasts as a result of this launch. We continue to follow Sigma’s delivery of both managed and self-funded PRS housing, leveraging the new HCA facility secured in September.