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H1 results and thorough review of regulation, buy reiterated

  • 12 Aug 16

Key information (January-June 2016): • Revenue down by 16.3%, due notably to the deconsolidation of AWP. • EBITDA down by 8.4% as a result of a 21.9% decrease in Energy EBITDA. • The deconsolidation of AWP (from Q2 16) and the full consolidation of the water concession (from 1 January) had roughly a zero effect on EBITDA as anticipated. • EBITDA margin increased by 160bp to 19.0%, also as a result of AWP deconsolidation. • Ordinary EBT decreased by 43.2% to €87m as a result of the 64.7% fall in Energy EBT. • EBT at €587m thanks to €500m extraordinary effects. • Cash flow from operations decreased by 18% to €198m. • Ordinary capex increased from €98m in H1 15 to €527m in H1 16. • As a result of higher capex, net debt increased by c.€300m to €5.45bn. • Construction backlog up by 28.6%. • Guidance confirmed: flattish EBITDA and a stable net debt for 2016. • Refinancing of non-recourse debt with recourse debt to boost EBT by €50m on an annual basis but increasing risk at the group level due to a change in Spanish regulation. • Thorough review of regulation pinpoints a recovery potential in 2017 and increasing risks by end of 2019. • The introduction of a carbon tax in Spain is in the realms of the possible. • Some orders in Acciona’s backlog were removed by Nordex as they were not meeting the latter’s criteria. Risk of litigation? • Latest transaction in the wind sector could imply a lower EV/MW multiple. • Annual General Meeting: authorisation to issue equity up to 50% of capital and convertible bonds.