Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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Stunted growth in the two main markets
18 Apr 17
Casino released Q1 sales showing an 11.6% growth yoy, driven by a +30.2% increase in LatAm retail revenues. Total sales came in at £9,321m, i.e. a 7% decline sequentially as the French operations underperformed. The latter suffered from struggling hypermarkets compared to a strong Q1 16, with only tiny growth in food sales on a same store basis. The online business, Cdiscount, progressed by a small 1.5%. In LatAm, Casino’s sales were boosted by a positive FX effect mainly for its Brazilian operations (+28% appreciation in Real). Despite decreasing inflation, GPA improved by 9.5% on organic growth sustained by volume recovery in Multivarejo and continuing strong growth in Assai. However, on a same store basis, food sales growth retreated from 7.8% in 2016 to 5.8%. The discontinued Via Varejo benefited from a favourable basis of comparison for both Offline and Online operations. Regarding other LatAm operations, Casino’s organic growth is driven by good same-store performances in Uruguay and expansion in all regions.
15 Sep 16
COLEFAX GROUP PLC (CFX LN) | COLLAGEN SOLUTIONS PLC (COS LN) | CRAWSHAW GROUP PLC (CRAW LN) | CRONIN GROUP PLC (CRON LN) | FRANCHISE BRANDS PLC (FRAN LN) | INFRASTRUCTURE INDIA PLC (IIP LN) | MEDAPHOR GROUP PLC (MED LN) | POWERFLUTE OYJ (POWR LN) | PURPLEBRICKS GROUP PLC (PURP LN) | TRIBAL GROUP PLC (TRB LN)
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
Diversification while the core business is struggling
05 May 16
Sainsbury’s FY 2015/16 sales decreased by 1.1% to £23.506bn as food deflation remains low and, as the second largest UK grocer, it continues to cut prices. Despite the cost saving plans (£225m), the underlying operating profit for retailing lost ground to reach £635m. Net profit stood at £471m vs. a negative result over the last year, of which £628m was impairments and onerous contract charges. Net debt including perpetual securities accounted for £2.343bn, a slight decrease compared to 2014/15. Sainsbury lowered its pay-out as it proposed a FY dividend of 12.1p per share vs. 13.2p in 2014/15 (vs. 5p expected by our model). According to management, the Home Retail Group acquisition will take place in Q3 16.
Historical accounting fines pulled down Tesco's profit
12 Apr 17
Tesco released its FY2016/17 results which showed 2.7% organic sales growth yoy to £55,917m and underlying operating profit of £1,280m, i.e. a 2.3% margin. During this year, Tesco succeeded in enhancing its UK lfl growth, although rather stunted in the Q4. This has sustained its domestic business profitability, improving by 50bp to 1.8% the underlying operating margin. The latter contributed 63% vs. 53% to the group’s underlying operating profit. However, Tesco has taken a total exceptional charge of £235m in respect of the Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) of £129m, the expected costs of the compensation scheme of £85m, and related costs. Thus, the net result came in at £-40m. Net debt decreased to £4.5bn following the lower gross debt and slightly better cash flow generation. However, the balance sheet remains stretched due to the ballooning pension deficit, which more than doubled to £6,621m. It is worth mentioning that the UK defined benefit deficit represents 98% of the group’s deficit. This came after the plunge in bond yields to record lows amidst the deterioration in the UK growth outlook.
Positive H1, delivery of organic growth during integration and confident outlook
31 Jan 17
We flag this morning's announcement and note that the amendment to the interim EPS calculation as announced yesterday in the accounts does not affect our forecasts which remain unchanged. We calculate EPS on a fully diluted basis, and reiterate our EPS forecasts of 20.2p and 23.8p for FY17 and FY18 respectively. Our view remains that the business is considerably undervalued trading on the resultant P/E multiples of 12.6x to March 17 and 10.6x to March 18.