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2Q25 preview
What happened?
We have spoken to TEF IR ahead of 2Q25 results on Wednesday July 30th - there has been no change to guidance and we expect updates to be limited ahead of the conclusion of the strategic review (due in 2H25). Below we summarise key high level points by market
*Spain - Competitive environment similar to previous quarters, with some easing of pressure in the low end of the market (Digi vs. Zegona/Lowi). On cost-cutting, TEF achieved EUR 270m from headcount reductions over the past 12 months (EUR 60-70m per quarter, a c. 5% tailwind to Spanish EBITDAaL growth per quarter). These annualise as of March 2025 and will be less of a tailwind in Q2, but TEF highlighted that there are other potential offsets to help (ongoing service revenue growth, copper shutdown savings, lower wage increases in FY25 vs. FY24). BNPPE forecasts stable service revenue growth QoQ with slightly lower EBITDAaL growth.
*Germany - Market remains competitive but not incrementally more so vs Q1. Focus is on offsetting MVNO losses from 1and1 which are accelerating as the network migration continues, Freenet contract helps here and is a revenue sharing model.
*UK - Competitive intensity remains high with altnets and MVNOs both winning share. VMO2 also negatively impacted by one touch switching, and highlight that mobile ''pounds and pence'' price increase already came through in Jan 2025 for half of the customer base, hence won''t be an incremental tailwind for this quarter
*Brazil - Underlying market development remains strong despite FX headwinds