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    SAVO-SOLAR OY

  • 11 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Cost savings at the crux of the new plan

Sirius’ announcement this morning has confirmed it will split the financing of the shafts and the remainder of the project, with the $600m shaft component targeted before April. We outlined the rationale for this strategy in September and ran through some of the maths, but today’s release implies scope for less dilution than expected, if it can be executed.

Companies: Sirius Minerals
  • 05 Nov 19

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd-- Charlie-1 Update and Quarterly Report

Last week, 88 Energy provided an update on the Charlie-1 appraisal well in which the Company announced the execution of a rig contract with Nordic Callista Services, for Rig-3, the same rig 88 Energy used to drill the Winx-1 exploration well in March 2019. Permitting is proceeding as planned, with drilling scheduled to commence in February 2020. The Charlie-1 appraisal well will be fully funded (up to a cap of US$23m) by Premier Oil as part of the recent farmout agreement, and will target seven stacked horizons with gross mean prospective resources of 1.6bn bbls (480mmbbls net to 88E). The farmout to Premier Oil is expected to complete by the end of November. We update our model and our target price to 4.8p and reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Companies: 88 Energy
  • 13 Nov 19

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc - Q3 Results

Trinity recently released its Q3/19 operational update in which the Company continued to focus on maintaining base production, whilst increasing its low-cost, high margin production. Production averaged 2,816bopd in Q3/19, a 3% YoY increase (Q3/18 2,734bopd). Two of the four new onshore infill wells came onstream during the period, with a third well coming onstream post-period end, increasing base production to 3,017bopd during October, with an expected year-end exit production rate of c3,400bopd. Trinity continues to pioneer its SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system to optimise producing wells, allowing the Company to increase production, reduce opex and add value. The focus for the remainder of 2019 will be on the completion of the H2/19 onshore drilling campaign; with the information learned to be used in preparation of further drilling during H1/20. With new wells coming onstream, and a low operating break-even we expect the Company's cash generation levels and balance sheet to further strengthen during Q4/19. We maintain our BUY recommendation but reduce our price target to 37p (from 40p) following the 2020 National Budget changes (see below) and the recent shift in the USD/GBP exchange rate.

Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 07 Nov 19

Shell acquires a French offshore wind developer

Shell is acquiring the French offshore wind developer Eolfi. The Anglo-Dutch oil major, which wants to be on the “right side of history”, is increasing its investments in renewables. Having such a committed player now in France is positive for the domestic supply chain. With the ambition of reducing its net carbon footprint by half by 2050, this acquisition is further evidence of the potential of offshore wind in light of the energy transition.

Companies: Royal Dutch Shell
  • 08 Nov 19

Cenkos: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc -- The Diversified Difference

Diversified Gas & Oil (DGO) is an Appalachian Basin focussed E&P Company, with a portfolio of long-life, low operational cost, low decline assets. By acquiring high quality assets, with synergies to the Company's existing portfolio, DGO can reduce operating costs and enhance margins, thereby creating significant shareholder value. DGO looks to acquire non-core producing assets from the shale focussed E&P's, before maximising and optimising production to extend well life. This long well life underpins the Company's well retirement programme, with DGO negotiating agreements covering more than 98% of its total oil and gas wells, providing clear visibility into the Company's future expenditure whilst also building trust with the state regulators. Following recent updates by the Company and the recent change in USD/GBP FX rate we lower our price target to 141p and maintain our BUY recommendation.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 06 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Ceres Power - Clean hydrogen announcement, forthcoming CMD, sector M&A

Ceres has made a strategically important RNS this morning indicating it has launched its first hydrogen fuel cell system giving customers a zero carbon option system looking forward in addition to its low carbon natural gas systems - one of two areas we hoped it would develop into. Our note today explains the merits of having a fuell cell system designed specifically to work with clean hydrogen, flags next week's CMD at the new Redhill facility and Liberum's December's conference at Liberum and highlights the reasons why the hydrogen/FC sector has been booming.

Companies: Ceres Power
  • 06 Nov 19

Farm out update

Pantheon has released an update on its Alaska farm out process. The shares have exhibited weakness during recent weeks, during a period in which we have had the positive news of a potential upgrade to Talitha target resources and the acquisition of Halliburton’s 25% in the Alkaid/Phecda discovery (helping simplify Pantheon’s farm out process), and in which the company has continued to engage with potential partners for its key Alaska farm out. Today’s update reports that this process remains busy, with interest from oil and gas and also nonindustry companies. We believe that this price move creates a buying opportunity, with potential for forward catalysts from a successful farm out and subsequent up to four well drilling programme.

Companies: Pantheon Resources
  • 12 Nov 19

FLASH: First gas at South Disouq in Egypt & permanent CEO

Gas has started producing from SDX’s South Disouq concession (55% WI, op) in Egypt. It has been flowing through the South Disouq Central Processing Facility (CPF) since 7th November 2019.  Each of the four discovery wells have been hooked up to the CPF and tested since then and have produced at their expected rates of 8 mmcf/d to 15 mmcf/d.  Over the last three days, the CPF has been operating in line with company expectations, achieving average gross production of 23 mmcf/d of gas (GMP FEe 4Q19: 25 mmcf/d) and 120 bbl/d of condensate (GMP FEe 4Q19: 150 bbl/d) or 24 mmcfe/d overall (GMP FEe 4Q19: 25.9 mmcfe/d).

Companies: Sdx Energy
  • 02 Sep 19

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 26 Sep 19

Small Cap Feast

Kaspi.kz, the largest Paym ents, Marketplace and Fintech Ecosystem in Kazakhstan w ith a leading m arket share in each of its key products and services. GDR offering expected Oct 2019. In the first half of 2019, the Company generated total revenue of KZT226,862m (U.S. $598m), up 34% and net income of KZT77,001m (U.S. $203m), up 54%. Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019.

Companies: XSG TRAK CREO BIDS VDTK BKS LSAI WHR CAB GYG

  • 22 Oct 19

Increasingly gearing towards the 3P case

 We are increasing our target price on PetroTal from £0.45 per share to £0.50 per share following the strong result of the BN 95-4H well. In our view, the initial flow rate of 6.2 mbbl/d combined with lower than expected drilling costs demonstrates the potential of horizontal wells to develop the field with better economics, shorter pay back and potentially more reserves.  With current production of already 7.8 mbbl/d constrained by surface facilities, PetroTal is well on track to deliver 10 mbbl/d by YE19.  We are incorporating the additional capital recently sanctioned to drill more wells and enhance further surface production capacity and increase our YE20 production forecast from 14 mbbl/d to 18 mbbl/d. This new profile and capital programme look increasingly similar to the 3P reserves case, which recovers c. 80 mmbbl (twice the company’s 2P reserves). A increase of 2P reserves at YE19 looks increasingly possible in our view.  We are now incorporating into our Core NAV a risked value for the company’s possible reserves (@60%), resulting in our Core NAV increasing from £0.23 per share to £0.54 per share. The shares trade at c. one third of our new Core NAV and at EV/DACF multiples of 1.0x for 2020 and 0.5x for 2021.  PetroTal continues to be a deep value name also offering production, cashflow and reserves growth.

Companies: Petrotal
  • 05 Nov 19

Landmark Deal Completed

Bacanora Lithium (BCN LN) # has paved the way to successful project financing, construction and commissioning with the completion of the previously announced investment and offtake agreement with Ganfeng Lithium, the third largest lithium producer in the world. The initial investment of £22m for 29.9% of BCN and 22.5% of the project level company gives BCN a strategic partner with both technical expertise in developing deposits like Sonora and financial firepower to help get the project into production.

Companies: Bacanora Lithium
  • 07 Nov 19

Impressive execution

Vestas’ Q3 results beat expectations in all metrics. The order intake momentum remained extremely strong by growing 45% to 4.7GW, taking the order backlog to an all-time high, which, combined with a stable ASP, gives good visibility for both next year and 2021. Management confirmed its full-year targets. With this impressive execution, Vestas confirmed its leadership position amongst its peers. We confirm our positive opinion on the stock.

Companies: Vestas Wind Systems
  • 01 Oct 19

STATE OF CHARGE - INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN EV CHARGING

Government bans on new fossil fueled vehicles in many major economies are likely to drive significant growth in electric vehicles (“EVs”) over the next twenty years. This will create growth in electricity demand from EV charging. The volume of energy to be supplied creates opportunities for both supply companies and generators and the provision of charge points is already creating a new industry. However, the timing of this demand puts pressure on local distribution infrastructure. While smart charging and vehicle to grid technology offer solutions, we believe these will only be partial given likely charging behaviour and as a result there will be demand for additional grid capacity and for other solutions. These other solutions include charger located storage and distributed generation.

Companies: CNA NG/ YU/ DRX GOOD RED SMS IKA AFC