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PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAC CN)C; Target price of £1.20 per share: 0.72 mmbbl sales will trigger a US$60 mm payment to PetroTal earlier than expected – Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened. As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/b
Companies: ZPHR RKH PPC APA APA FEC TAL IGAS HUR EQNR EQNR WEN VLE TETY TETY
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Adding very high impact gas exploration in Austria - The ADX-AT-1 and ADX-AT-II licence areas have been expanded from 450 km2 to an area now encompassing 1,022 km2 at a minimal cost. The additional licence areas will be valid for up to 16 years without any relinquishment foreseen. The associated work programme can be covered by the drilling of one well. The portfolio expansion in
Companies: XOM XOM VOG MAHAA ADX AXL CE1 XOP DEC TETY TETY EQNR EQNR CHAR
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Better reservoir performance than expected at Anshof - The Anshof-3 well has flowed at a maximum rate of 132 bbl/d (light oil and no water) from the Eocene reservoir. This is well above the flow rate of ~75 bbl/d announced two weeks ago and initial expectations of 40 80 bbl/d. Downhole pressure data recorded during the test also indicates better than expected reservoir flow perfo
Companies: TXP PXT TGL SENX KOS CZA AOI CNE CNE EQNR I3E TETY TETY VLE GENL FEC ENOG EME DNO DNO CNE AKRBP AKERBP ALV ALV PEN PEN GPRK GPRK ADX LBE
• The positive drilling and testing results on Block 56 are the most important takeaways from the 1Q22 results with a potentially positive impact on reserves and production.
• The Al Jumd-2 horizontal well flowed 700 bbl/d on test from a 430 m section. This is a very good result as it supports Tethys’ theory that horizontal wells in these reservoirs would materially boost production (the Al Jumd-1 vertical well flowed only 100 bbl/d). The company has decided to drill two further horizontal wells
Companies: Tethys Oil Ab (TETY:STO)Tethys Oil AB (TETY:OME)
Activity increased significantly in Q1/22, with the most notable event being the successful result of the Al Jumd-2 horizontal appraisal well in Block 56. Al Jumd-2 tested at an initial rate of 700bopd from a 430m section and will be put on an extended production test for the next six months. Following the success at the Al Jumd-2 well, Tethys will accelerate the drilling of two additional horizontal appraisal wells, before hooking up all the wells to a long-term test unit. The result will provi
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b
Companies: TAL SNM XOM XOM TTE SEPL SHEL REP REP PAT OMV OMV HUR FAR ENI ENI EME EDR DELT DEC CEG AKRBP AKERBP ADX CE1 PEN PEN TETY TETY EGY VLE
Tethys Oil is a Nasdaq Stockholm listed, Oman Focused E&P Company. Its main assets are the producing Blocks 3&4, which contain c26.2mmbbls of net 2P reserves and produce 11,136bopd of FY21 net daily production. The assets are highly cash generative (2021: US$29.6m in free cash flow), allowing the Company to invest in the continued development of the assets, whilst also paying a c9% yield. In recent years, Tethys has enlarged its portfolio, balancing dependable reserves, production and dividend g
Looking at E&P Free Cash Flow - While companies still carry hedges contracted at lower prices, we estimate our producer universe will generate ~25% FCF yield (defined as FCF/EV) in 2022 at ~US$100/bbl. At just US$70/bbl, the overall FCF yield is estimated at 15% for 2023 and >20% for 2024. Assuming US$110/bbl, this increases further to ~40% for each of 2023 and 2024. At YE24, balance sheet net cash, after paying shareholder distributio
Companies: SOU OMV OMV VOG TGL SNM CASP BLOK SHEL REP REP IGAS ENI ENI ECHO I3E CNE ALV ALV SDX GPRK GPRK LBE ADX AXL CE1 PEN PEN TAL PHAR TETY TETY EGY WEN
The outlook for the Oil and Gas sector in early 2022 could not be more different than two years ago. At that time, oil prices had turned negative for the first time and many companies were focused on cutting costs and negotiating with their lenders to ensure survival. The very limited support from investors on the back of an exodus from the sector towards green energy complicated further the situation. Fast forward two years and the situation could not be more different. With the current Brent p
Companies: GPRK GPRK AXL ADX CE1 PEN PEN PHAR TAL SDX EGY WEN TETY TETY
• We are increasing our target price from SEK95to SEK130 per share on our new higher oil price assumptions.
• Tethys is boosting investments from ~US$35 mm in 2021 to US$91 mm in 2022 with the firm intention to restore production at Blocks 3&4 to pre-COVID levels and step-up exploration on Block 56 and Block 58. The FY22 production guidance has been set at 11.0-11.5 mbbl/d (100% oil) and our new oil price forecasts have an important impact on expected cash flow.
• A dividend of SEK7.00 per shar
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C; Target price of £0.30 per share: The Independent NPV estimate of the YE21 2P reserves represents ~2x the current EV – The YE21 1P, 2P and 3P reserves have increased (compared to YE20) by respectively 4.1% to 3 mmboe, 5.5% to 7.4 mmboe and 10.1% to 11.5 mmboe. The after tax NPV10 of the 1P reserves stands at ~US$25 mm in line with the current EV of the company. The after tax NPV10 of the 2P reserves has been
Companies: XOM XOM IOG TETY TETY TXP TCFF TCF SAVE AXL CE1 XOP CHAR ENI ENI VLE 88E GPRK GPRK
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C: Target price of £0.30 per share: Operations update in Colombia – The RCE 2 well is expected to spud around March 15th, with drilling expected to take approximately three weeks, followed by the testing of the well. Depending on the number of zones encountered in the well bore, the testing is expected to take approximately two weeks. RCS-1 well (formerly named RCE-3), the next well in the campaign, is expe
Companies: 88E AXL CNE CNE DNO DNO GENL GTE I3E PEN PEN TAL SEPL TETY TETY TTE
Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target price of A$0.65 per share: A$20 mm equity raise to fund growth – Calima has raised A$20 mm of new equity priced at A$0.20 per share to fund growth and boost its balance sheet. With ~A$16 mm capex in 1Q22, a “maxed-out” debt facility and covenant restrictions, the additional equity funding will allow Calima to sustain its capex programme and secure equipment ahead of the spring break-up period rather than
Companies: 88E AKRBP AKERBP ALV ALV BP/ CE1 CNE DNO DNO EQNR EQNR I3E JSE PAT TAL SHEL TETY TETY TTE EGY
• 4Q21 production was in line with expectations and with some of the 4Q21 capex moving to 2022 and a positive working capital movement during the quarter (four liftings instead of three), YE21 cash of ~US$69 mm was US$11 mm above our expectations.
• Tethys is boosting investments from ~US$35 mm in 2021 to US$91 mm in 2022 with the firm intention to restore production at Blocks 3&4 to pre-COVID levels and step-up exploration on Block 56 and Block 58.
• The FY22 production guidance has been set at
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Positive logging results at Anshof-3 – Logging results from the Anshof-3 well confirmed 2.5-4 m of productive net pay at the primary Eocene oil target and 14 m of net gas pay at the Miocene sands. The secondary Cenomanian oil zone is not likely to be productive at this location due to low permeability (this is not a surprise). The Eocene net reservoir thickness at Anshof-3 locati
Companies: GPRK GPRK TTE TGL SQZ SOU REP REP MAHAA KOS LUPE HUR GTE GENL ENOG ECHO ADX CE1 DNO DNO TAL PHAR TETY TETY VLE
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Tethys Oil AB.
We currently have 48 research reports from 3
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
Completion of commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem last month keeps Bushveld on track to end 2022 with a sustainable production run rate of 5,000-5,400t V pa, a solid platform from which to refocus on longer-term growth. Fully utilising the vast array of processing infrastructure at Vanchem to treat feed from an expanded mining and ore concentration operation at Vametco makes a lot of sense given the fixed component of costs at the former and the large mineral resource at the latter. Bushveld’s re
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
We have updated our valuation for SolGold (“SOLG”) following the filing of the Cascabel PFS technical report. The changes result in a US$3.6bn NPV8% and 22% IRR (immediately pre-capex) at US$8,500/t Cu and US$1,850/oz Au, driving a modest cut in our target to 85p/sh (Jun’23E) from 101p. Nonetheless, we view this as a solid base case, with tangible potential upside through: inclusion of the open-pit Tandayama-America (“TAM”) deposit 3km away; additional caves and throughput capacity to capture th
Companies: SolGold Plc
Hannam & Partners
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Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or req
Companies: TRB CWR CCS DMTR EMAN GTC JSE KIBO MDZ SYM
Savannah, which operates the Barroso lithium mine project in Portugal, reports today the results of its locked cycle test to determine optimal flotation reagents to confirm lithium recoveries and spodumene concentrate grades. Savannah is aiming for a 5.5%Li2O concentrate grade with a near 80% recovery. The reported work confirms that these should be possible and that in larger scale, bulk testing these parameters may improve. The work also highlights that there are still optimisations to be h
Companies: Savannah Resources Plc
Savannah, today provides an update on the EIA process for the development of the Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal. The Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA) – Portugal's environmental regulator – has contacted Savannah and both have agreed to continue the EIA evaluation process under ‘Article 16' of the law which regulates Environmental Impact Assessments in Portugal. This voluntary process will allow Savannah to work with the entities that make up APA's Evaluation Committee to amend element