Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on KAROLINSKA DEVELOPMENT-B. We currently have 8 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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Advancing across all fronts
01 Mar 17
Karolinska Development has reported continuing progress in all its portfolio companies but the near-term remains focussed on the proposal to restructure the convertible bonds, with the EGM scheduled for the 8th March. We view the offer as marking the closing stages of the major transformation that has been underway at Karolinska Development over the last 24 months. Our valuation of Karolinska Development was placed under review pending the outcome of the offer, but previously was SEK 473m (SEK9.10 per share).
Unshackling itself from its bonds?
09 Feb 17
Karolinska Development intends to restructure the convertible bonds, due to mature in December 2019. The proposal would materially strengthen the balance sheet and allow full implementation of the revised investment strategy. Additionally, in our view, it would remove what has been a distraction for management and a major overhang on the share price. Our valuation of Karolinska Development, based on its four main assets, was SEK 473m (SEK9.10 per share) and is placed under review pending the outcome of the offer.
Another quarter of delivery
23 Nov 16
Karolinska Development's turnaround maintained its momentum in Q316. Portfolio companies, Promimic and Dilafor, raise a total of SEK75m (including commitments) with SEK53m already invested by third-party investors; and Umecrine Cognition has since completed a SEK45m fundraising. On the operation front, BioArctic has formed a collaboration with AbbVie; and after the period end, following the publication of very promising Phase I data in ovarian cancer, Aprea has advanced APR-246 into Phase II. Our valuation of Karolinska, based on its four main assets, is unchanged at SEK9.10 per share.
The corner has been turned
09 Nov 16
Over the past two years Karolinska Development has successfully repositioned itself, with the investment strategy firmly focussed on disruptive technologies that could materially alter current treatment models. New management has re- galvanised the entire organisation, with a greater emphasis on an active investment in these mid- and late-stage opportunities. Our DCF-based valuation of the four main investments alone suggests a value of SEK473m, SEK9.10 per share, which represents an uplift of 52% to the current market value, with the remaining six portfolio companies representing further upside.
N+1 Singer - Karolinska Development AB - Forecast update post Q2: portfolio value credible, but stock expensive
07 Sep 16
Q2 results on 31st August revealed a further reduction in net portfolio value to SEK143.7m. The stock is currently trading at a price/NAV of 2.4x and an EV/portfolio value of 3.2x, the latter representing a significant premium over the 1.75x average for quoted IP commercialisation companies (when adjusted for quoted company holdings). Although we believe that the portfolio is now conservatively valued, the valuation premium is in our view too wide given the convertible debt (SEK586.4m payable in 2019e) and preferred dividends payable to Rosetta Capital, in spite of the potentially attractive propositions represented by (in our view) Aprea AB and OssDsign AB in particular. We downgrade from Hold to Sell with an EV/portfolio value ratio based target price of SEK4.2.
20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Growth style screen revamp and 10 focus stocks
06 Apr 17
We have reviewed the performance of our consistent growth screen since the previous refresh on 27 September 2016 and revamped the selection parameters to focus more on forecast sales and EPS growth going forward. In the period under review the consistent growth style screen outperformed the small-cap benchmark by c. 6% and underperformed the microcap index by a similar amount. Interestingly, although growth doesn’t always seem to be defensive as might be expected, however it appears right to buy growth on dips caused by or coincident with wider market volatility. In the new forecast growth screen we take a close look at 10 focus stocks. We will monitor performance and refresh it in three to four months time.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-04-2017
24 Apr 17
First Derivatives (FDP LN) FY slightly ahead as strong trading momentum continues | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) A potentially exciting corporate development | mporium Group (MPM LN) 2016 results: course set for exciting 2017 | Vectura Group (VEC LN) VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
24 Apr 17
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Growth supported by a strong balance sheet (CORP) | Mortice* (MORT): UK acquisition (CORP) | Avacta* (AVCT): Another milestone – 1st non-therapeutics licence (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDF): Trading update and Q3 results (BUY) | Nasstar* (NASA): Growth and margin focus (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Vectura Group - VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
24 Apr 17
Following a review of product-level forecasts, we have reduced FY2017-18e revenue forecasts by 6.6% & 10.9% respectively. Following Mylan’s generic Advair® setback, we have also downgraded the likelihood of success for VR315 in the US. Although we remain impressed by the depth of Vectura’s pipeline, the potential valuation upside does not currently outweigh the risk of VR315 non-approval or delayed approval. We downgrade to Sell ahead of the 10th May GDUFA date with a TP of 131p (from 202p).