Zubsolv’s market share stabilisation and slowing growth disappointed the market, with the shares now close to a 52-week low. However, we believe the current share price is overly discounting Zubsolv’s potential, implying peak gross sales of $430m (net $280m based on a 35% rebate), a <15% share of the growing US opioid dependence market, without any value assigned to the ex-US opportunity or the pipeline. While we have slowed our Zubsolv growth, reducing our valuation to SEK6bn
16 Jul 2015
Stable Zubsolv share masks commercial gains
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Stable Zubsolv share masks commercial gains
Zubsolv’s market share stabilisation and slowing growth disappointed the market, with the shares now close to a 52-week low. However, we believe the current share price is overly discounting Zubsolv’s potential, implying peak gross sales of $430m (net $280m based on a 35% rebate), a <15% share of the growing US opioid dependence market, without any value assigned to the ex-US opportunity or the pipeline. While we have slowed our Zubsolv growth, reducing our valuation to SEK6bn