Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on OREXO AB. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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The highs and lows of 2016
21 Feb 17
Orexo made significant progress in 2016 towards becoming a sustainable speciality pharma company, with continued Zubsolv revenue growth contributing to a first full year of profitability. Key achievements included the ex-US global Mundipharma licence deal for Zubsolv (EMA filing in Q4), and the first large exclusive Medicaid FFS contract in Maryland. Despite this, and ahead of major newsflow in 2017, IP infringement litigation remains a stock overhang with Orexo trading near 52-week lows. We believe the market’s view of Zubsolv’s prospects is too pessimistic. Our new assumptions, updated for evolving market dynamics, generate a SEK3.16bn or SEK91/share valuation (vs SEK4.54bn or SEK131/share).
Worst-case scenario averted
28 Nov 16
The court ruling upholding the validity of the Orexo ’996 Zubsolv patent precludes Actavis from launching a generic before September 2019. Orexo has 30 days to decide whether to appeal the court decision that a second patent (’330 with 2032 expiry) is invalid. A worst-case scenario allowing imminent launch of Actavis generic(s) has been averted. Zubsolv’s IP portfolio includes two additional patents (’900 and ’421) that extend to 2032, which coupled with the prospect of an appeal on ’330, means that significant hurdles remain ahead of Actavis generic launch.
Zubsolv gathers momentum
04 Nov 16
Orexo’s Q316 results delivered positive momentum in Zubsolv revenues and market share. Exclusive preferred status on Maryland FFS Medicaid from July boosted Zubsolv’s market share in the public segment by 1.4pp. In the coming quarters we expect further US market share gains. Orexo is targeting a disproportionally higher share of new patients embarking on opioid dependence treatment, enabled by continued salesforce optimisation. The impact of the US Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) increased 275 patient cap coupled with CARA 2016 implementation from H217 and ongoing progress in improving market access will support this. Nevertheless, the share price performance remains muted ahead of a Q416 court decision on the Actavis IP litigation.
Good things come in threes
07 Oct 16
Orexo has delivered on three key newsflow items, which should contribute to driving increased Zubsolv use in the treatment of opioid addiction. Submission of Zubsolv’s MAA with the EMA means that first launch ex-US could come from 2018 onwards. FDA approval of a new low dose provides greater dosing flexibility. Positive data from the RESOLV real world study will be leveraged in educating new and existing prescribers to improve their treatment programmes. Ahead of Q316 results we maintain our SEK5.13bn (SEK149/share) valuation highlighting that uncertainty due to the ongoing Actavis litigation continues to weigh on the share price; resolution is expected in H216.
Margins, Maryland and Mundipharma
10 Aug 16
Orexo’s Q216 results pointed to positive Zubsolv momentum with evidence of net revenue growth, improving margins and encouraging market access developments. Financial discipline contributed to a Q216 SEK12.1m operating profit and a second successive quarter of positive operating cash flow. The new Maryland FFS Medicaid agreement should help boost Zubsolv’s penetration into the public market segment and ongoing expansion in US prescribing rights will be a key growth driver longer term. Ex-US, the recent Mundipharma licensing deal provides access to the global opioid dependence market. In the near term, however, uncertainty due to the ongoing Actavis litigation weighs on the current share price.
Mundipharma to take Zubsolv global
04 Jul 16
Mundipharma has licensed exclusive global ex-US rights to Zubsolv. Deal terms include a €7m upfront payment, in addition to further undisclosed regulatory and commercial milestones and up to low double-digit net sales royalties. Ahead of Orexo’s Q216 results on 12 July pending further disclosures, we make no changes to our current forecast and valuation. Nevertheless, this is an important deal for Orexo, which will significantly expand the Zubsolv market opportunity ex-US, where c 20 million people are estimated to be afflicted by opioid dependence. Access to the global opioid dependence market is a key growth driver for Orexo, in addition to the anticipated expansion in US prescribing rights and the currently undisclosed development pipeline.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-03-2017
21 Mar 17
accesso Technology (ACSO LN) Full year results in line, but key trading months still ahead | Augean (AUG LN) Double digit growth in ’16, good start to ‘17 | Earthport (EPO LN) Interims show continued top line strength | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Good momentum under new team. It’s now all about delivery | IQE (IQE LN) FY’16 results prompt further upgrades | Microsaic Systems (MSYS LN) Challenges in 2016, strategy remains in place | mporium Group (MPM LN) Funds raised to help execute strategy | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Dawn of the independents | ScS Group (SCS LN) Strong progress on key growth initiatives albeit comps now toughen | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) FY results: EBITDA ahead, Instalift™ gaining pace | Vectura Group (VEC LN) FY (9-month) results
16 Mar 17
4imprint (FOUR): 6% dividend yield for a growth stock? (BUY) | Cambridge Cognition* (COG): Amgen uses CANTAB technology in trial (CORP) | Seeing Machines* (SEE): H1 results show steady operational progress (CORP) | Allergy Therapeutics (AGY): Pollinex Quattro Birch Ph III EU trial starts (BUY) | Capital Drilling* (CAPD): FY results in line, with turnaround in exploration activity (CORP)
N+1 Singer - EKF Diagnostics - Final results & potential buy back
20 Mar 17
FY16 prelims are slightly ahead of our latest expectations, those having been increased materially over the course of H2’16 as the strength of the recovery in trading became apparent. In order to maximise shareholder value, the directors are currently examining a potential break up of the group. This would also involve a delisting from AIM. A buy back offer at 21.5p would therefore be made to those investors that wish to exit now rather than holding their shares for the two years plus it would likely take to achieve a potentially higher realisation value for the businesses.
N+1 Singer - N1S Trend spotting - Strategy update
08 Mar 17
In this new product we present some strategy theme updates arising out of our latest analysis of macro trends and economic data and our innovative Quant work. We also look at upcoming events and suggest topping up on some of our Best Ideas for 2017.
Good results, but further restructuring complex for investors
20 Mar 17
EKF Diagnostics FY 2016 results are slightly ahead of expectations, with both higher revenue and better EBITDA. Management has also announced plans to split the company into two separate companies, Point of Care and Laboratory Diagnostics, with the prospect of a delisting to manage the process. The primary metric for valuation of the two businesses is different consequently we believe that the separation is likely to generate significant value. However, in anticipation of the volatility likely given the restructuring announced this morning, despite the strength of the results, we reduce our recommendation to HOLD and maintain our 21p target price.
Panmure Morning Note 15-03-2017
15 Mar 17
We expect EKF Diagnostics to announce FY 2016 results on 21st March. EKF has had a transformational year and has released three positive trading updates since the interim results in September. We expect the results to give more granularity on where the improvement has come from enabling us to have more confidence in future growth rates. We maintain our 21p target price and BUY recommendation ahead of the results.