Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on OREXO AB. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
The highs and lows of 2016
21 Feb 17
Orexo made significant progress in 2016 towards becoming a sustainable speciality pharma company, with continued Zubsolv revenue growth contributing to a first full year of profitability. Key achievements included the ex-US global Mundipharma licence deal for Zubsolv (EMA filing in Q4), and the first large exclusive Medicaid FFS contract in Maryland. Despite this, and ahead of major newsflow in 2017, IP infringement litigation remains a stock overhang with Orexo trading near 52-week lows. We believe the market’s view of Zubsolv’s prospects is too pessimistic. Our new assumptions, updated for evolving market dynamics, generate a SEK3.16bn or SEK91/share valuation (vs SEK4.54bn or SEK131/share).
Worst-case scenario averted
28 Nov 16
The court ruling upholding the validity of the Orexo ’996 Zubsolv patent precludes Actavis from launching a generic before September 2019. Orexo has 30 days to decide whether to appeal the court decision that a second patent (’330 with 2032 expiry) is invalid. A worst-case scenario allowing imminent launch of Actavis generic(s) has been averted. Zubsolv’s IP portfolio includes two additional patents (’900 and ’421) that extend to 2032, which coupled with the prospect of an appeal on ’330, means that significant hurdles remain ahead of Actavis generic launch.
Zubsolv gathers momentum
04 Nov 16
Orexo’s Q316 results delivered positive momentum in Zubsolv revenues and market share. Exclusive preferred status on Maryland FFS Medicaid from July boosted Zubsolv’s market share in the public segment by 1.4pp. In the coming quarters we expect further US market share gains. Orexo is targeting a disproportionally higher share of new patients embarking on opioid dependence treatment, enabled by continued salesforce optimisation. The impact of the US Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) increased 275 patient cap coupled with CARA 2016 implementation from H217 and ongoing progress in improving market access will support this. Nevertheless, the share price performance remains muted ahead of a Q416 court decision on the Actavis IP litigation.
Good things come in threes
07 Oct 16
Orexo has delivered on three key newsflow items, which should contribute to driving increased Zubsolv use in the treatment of opioid addiction. Submission of Zubsolv’s MAA with the EMA means that first launch ex-US could come from 2018 onwards. FDA approval of a new low dose provides greater dosing flexibility. Positive data from the RESOLV real world study will be leveraged in educating new and existing prescribers to improve their treatment programmes. Ahead of Q316 results we maintain our SEK5.13bn (SEK149/share) valuation highlighting that uncertainty due to the ongoing Actavis litigation continues to weigh on the share price; resolution is expected in H216.
Margins, Maryland and Mundipharma
10 Aug 16
Orexo’s Q216 results pointed to positive Zubsolv momentum with evidence of net revenue growth, improving margins and encouraging market access developments. Financial discipline contributed to a Q216 SEK12.1m operating profit and a second successive quarter of positive operating cash flow. The new Maryland FFS Medicaid agreement should help boost Zubsolv’s penetration into the public market segment and ongoing expansion in US prescribing rights will be a key growth driver longer term. Ex-US, the recent Mundipharma licensing deal provides access to the global opioid dependence market. In the near term, however, uncertainty due to the ongoing Actavis litigation weighs on the current share price.
Mundipharma to take Zubsolv global
04 Jul 16
Mundipharma has licensed exclusive global ex-US rights to Zubsolv. Deal terms include a €7m upfront payment, in addition to further undisclosed regulatory and commercial milestones and up to low double-digit net sales royalties. Ahead of Orexo’s Q216 results on 12 July pending further disclosures, we make no changes to our current forecast and valuation. Nevertheless, this is an important deal for Orexo, which will significantly expand the Zubsolv market opportunity ex-US, where c 20 million people are estimated to be afflicted by opioid dependence. Access to the global opioid dependence market is a key growth driver for Orexo, in addition to the anticipated expansion in US prescribing rights and the currently undisclosed development pipeline.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 22-02-2017
22 Feb 17
CORETX (COR LN) Contract wins and new Lifestyle facility | Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) Solid Q1 trading plus earnings enhancing acquisition of StingRay Optics | NCC Group (NCC LN) Further issues in Assurance | PCI-PAL (PCIP LN) Strong H1 underpins positive outlook | UBM (UBM LN) Results | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Phase IIa RPL554 add-on trial to tiotropium commenced
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-02-2017
21 Feb 17
Abzena (ABZA LN) Contract bookings strong; US costs higher than expected | City of London Investment Group (CLIG LN) Earnings and interim dividend in line, some modest growth in FuM | dotdigital Group (DOTD LN) Good H1; broadening avenues of growth | Grafenia (GRA LN) Weak print volumes | Vernalis (VER LN) Interims highlight increasing Tuzistra™ scrip volume
Panmure Morning Note 15-02-2017
15 Feb 17
With the early January trading update having prompted us to upgrade forecasts, today’s interim results show how the group’s focus on areas such as product development and international sales are translating through to growth in both the top and bottom-line. The consistency of delivery is what impresses us, reflecting the maturity of the management team and the clarity of the longterm vision. We repeat our Buy recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 20-02-2017
20 Feb 17
Chi-Med has announced the initiation of a Phase II study of savolitinib in locally advanced or metastatic pulmonary sarcomatoid carcinoma (PSC) in China. This is a disease where patients are usually diagnosed by normal pathology (i.e. not via molecular diagnostics methods) but given that 20-30% of PSC patient show c-Met gene amplification this potentially represents a very rich patient pool for savolitinib as a highly selective and potent oral c-Met inhibitor. The continued strength of Chi-Med’s clinical momentum is further demonstrated by today’s news and we consider this represents further upside potential against our existing investment case. We repeat our Buy recommendation.
Discovering a sustainable model
21 Feb 17
We expect C4XD to begin to deliver commercially in 2017, following the shift in strategy away from fee for service in 2016. Over the next 12 months we expect C4XD to sign its first pre-clinical out-licensing deal, develop at least one more product line and sign at least one more strategic alliance. We believe this demonstration of the model will translate to a step up in value and we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and 129p price target.
Small Cap Breakfast
09 Feb 17
GBGI—Schedule One from the integrated provider of international benefits insurance focused on providing tailored insurance products. Looking to raise £32m with admission expected 22 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management Ramsdens Holdings –Schedule One from the financial services provider and retailer, operating in the core business segments of foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, precious metals buying and selling and retailing of second hand and new jewellery. Expected admission to AIM 15 Feb raising circa £15.6m. Expected mkt cap £26.5m.