Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on OREXO AB. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Worst-case scenario averted
28 Nov 16
The court ruling upholding the validity of the Orexo ’996 Zubsolv patent precludes Actavis from launching a generic before September 2019. Orexo has 30 days to decide whether to appeal the court decision that a second patent (’330 with 2032 expiry) is invalid. A worst-case scenario allowing imminent launch of Actavis generic(s) has been averted. Zubsolv’s IP portfolio includes two additional patents (’900 and ’421) that extend to 2032, which coupled with the prospect of an appeal on ’330, means that significant hurdles remain ahead of Actavis generic launch.
Zubsolv gathers momentum
04 Nov 16
Orexo’s Q316 results delivered positive momentum in Zubsolv revenues and market share. Exclusive preferred status on Maryland FFS Medicaid from July boosted Zubsolv’s market share in the public segment by 1.4pp. In the coming quarters we expect further US market share gains. Orexo is targeting a disproportionally higher share of new patients embarking on opioid dependence treatment, enabled by continued salesforce optimisation. The impact of the US Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) increased 275 patient cap coupled with CARA 2016 implementation from H217 and ongoing progress in improving market access will support this. Nevertheless, the share price performance remains muted ahead of a Q416 court decision on the Actavis IP litigation.
Good things come in threes
07 Oct 16
Orexo has delivered on three key newsflow items, which should contribute to driving increased Zubsolv use in the treatment of opioid addiction. Submission of Zubsolv’s MAA with the EMA means that first launch ex-US could come from 2018 onwards. FDA approval of a new low dose provides greater dosing flexibility. Positive data from the RESOLV real world study will be leveraged in educating new and existing prescribers to improve their treatment programmes. Ahead of Q316 results we maintain our SEK5.13bn (SEK149/share) valuation highlighting that uncertainty due to the ongoing Actavis litigation continues to weigh on the share price; resolution is expected in H216.
Margins, Maryland and Mundipharma
10 Aug 16
Orexo’s Q216 results pointed to positive Zubsolv momentum with evidence of net revenue growth, improving margins and encouraging market access developments. Financial discipline contributed to a Q216 SEK12.1m operating profit and a second successive quarter of positive operating cash flow. The new Maryland FFS Medicaid agreement should help boost Zubsolv’s penetration into the public market segment and ongoing expansion in US prescribing rights will be a key growth driver longer term. Ex-US, the recent Mundipharma licensing deal provides access to the global opioid dependence market. In the near term, however, uncertainty due to the ongoing Actavis litigation weighs on the current share price.
Mundipharma to take Zubsolv global
04 Jul 16
Mundipharma has licensed exclusive global ex-US rights to Zubsolv. Deal terms include a €7m upfront payment, in addition to further undisclosed regulatory and commercial milestones and up to low double-digit net sales royalties. Ahead of Orexo’s Q216 results on 12 July pending further disclosures, we make no changes to our current forecast and valuation. Nevertheless, this is an important deal for Orexo, which will significantly expand the Zubsolv market opportunity ex-US, where c 20 million people are estimated to be afflicted by opioid dependence. Access to the global opioid dependence market is a key growth driver for Orexo, in addition to the anticipated expansion in US prescribing rights and the currently undisclosed development pipeline.
Putting CVS Caremark in the past
09 May 16
Orexo has successfully navigated a challenging Q116 with the loss of CVS Caremark exclusive status at restricted plans, emerging with positive operating cash flow due to working capital and a focus on cost control (total spend down 17% vs Q4). In the near term, management priorities are Zubsolv revenue growth, balanced with appropriate sales investment to target profitability. Investment will increase as Zubsolv’s market access and reimbursement position improves, and federal legislation is passed significantly expanding the available market. Global expansion with a potential new ex-US partner for Zubsolv represents further upside; a deal is targeted for Q216, with European filing planned in H216.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 05-12-2016
05 Dec 16
RTHM is acquiring a profitable Canadian listed mobile specialist for equivalent of US$42.5m consideration in shares (88.235m). This helps adds to two growth vectors RTHM is targeting; (i) adds unique exclusive audience (10m unique) and (ii) Exclusive demand Yahoo and Facebook. The business has 15 premium and owned and operated apps which provide users with rewards for activity. The business is expected to deliver c$9m of EBITDA in FY18 including $2m of cost synergies. This equates to just 4.7x EV/EBITDA. This marks what we see the first step in RTHM activity to scale the business and deliver on margin potential (see our initiation notes). Our initial estimates for EPS revisions are very significant - for FY18 are 2.3 cents (currently 0.6) and for FY19 4.3 (currently 2.5). There is a call at 830 for investors and we will revise post this.
Exponential growth now in sight
07 Dec 16
The best things in life are worth waiting for, or at least that seems to be the case with Kromek, a pioneering radiation detection expert. Since listing on AIM at 51p back in October 2013, the company has not only been busily refining and field testing its next generation CZT (cadmium zinc telluride) technology, but importantly also securing a raft of new orders.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-12-2016
09 Dec 16
This morning’s AGM Statement confirms that trading in the first four months of the year to 31st October was in line with expectations. Revenue was slightly above the prior year period and cash collection has remained strong. The Group has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a progressive dividend policy. The statement is encouraging and we therefore leave our forecasts unchanged. We note the attractions of a 5% dividend yield and consider the shares inexpensive at 4.5x FY’17 EV/EBITDA.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 06-12-2016
06 Dec 16
With FY16 volume and revenue already disclosed in the pre-close, the focus in today’s prelims is on PBT (£100.3m versus our £101m) and EPS (96.8p versus our 95.4p). No special dividend triggered this year (none forecast) and DPS is held at 46.8p (N1SE: 48.0p). On end markets, recent commentary is reiterated – the core business is growing, whilst consumer electronics will be subdued in the current year (competitive capacity from Solvay). On currency, there will be a material benefit in the current year (a little more than the £14m to £15m previously indicated), and a further tailwind next year if current rates are maintained (quantum TBC). There is also an investment of £10m today in a minority interest in Magma Global, Victrex’ oil and gas mega programme partner. Although the share price is now close to our TP of 1730p, we feel that there is enough in today’s announcement to retain a positive stance on medium term opportunities with strong cashflow and a special dividend potentially to look forward to in the current year.