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INTERSPORT PSC HLDG AG-REG
INTERSPORT PSC HLDG AG-REG
Panmure Morning Note 01-12-16
01 Dec 16
Consistent with the FY16 trading update/pre-close on September 14, today’s FY16 results are in line with our and consensus underlying PBT expectations of £12.5m (+22.5% YoY). The total FY16 dividend is up 36%, covered 3.4x, whilst net cash is £6.9m (+53%). FY16 represented another good year of execution, and FY17 has started well. The company's business mix is now more diverse across geographies (International accounted for 26% of total sales vs 21% in FY15) and we see CCT’s increasing diversity in retail distribution as both a further risk-mitigation and opportunity driver. We make no changes to our FY17 and FY18 PBT forecasts of £13.5m and £14.5m (albeit, we make some changes to the constituent parts) and introduce a FY19 PBT of £15.5m. We maintain our BUY and TP of 635p.
Strong H2 expected
30 Nov 16
H1 results were in line with expectations with PBT of £9.0m, EPS of 9.9p and DPS of 7.2p. The NAV / share is 253p. We expect the company to have a strong H2 based on its forward sales position and the timing of developments coming through. Telford has a strong balance sheet, a large development pipeline and impressive forward sales position, as well as good levels of demand for its product and geography from a diverse group of buyers. No change to forecasts at this stage.
Civil: No Reflation here, only a Race to the Bottom
05 Dec 16
The strengthening of the US dollar since the election of Trump is adding to the headwinds in the airline industry: over-capacity and falling yields. The airline industry, which is expected to generate $8bn of free cashflow in 2016 on $600bn of capital employed, needs to spend $120bn annually to maintain current delivery rates. Deferrals and down-gauging is now spreading to narrow-bodies as more and more airlines review their capex plans. We expect acceleration of seat densification as airlines look to sweat their existing fleets. We now expect deliveries to fall by 5% over 2015-18 as opposed to our previous forecast of flat growth. Aftermarket may also suffer as seat densification helps cut number of flights. This leads to reduction in our EPS forecasts for key Civil Aerospace names: Rolls-Royce, Meggitt, GKN and Senior.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
Forward sale of two developments increases forecast visibility further
01 Dec 16
We note Watkin Jones’ announcement today confirming that the company has forward sold another two developments, in Cardiff and Belfast, to institutional investors. We leave forecasts unchanged but acknowledge that these further sales increase the visibility on earnings. We now assume c.65% of FY17 gross profit is derived from projects that have been forward sold. We continue to believe the shares are undervalued given the high levels of earnings visibility that the forward sales model generates, the low leverage risk with in excess of £30m of net cash and the structural growth in both Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) and the Private Rented Sector (PRS). On FY16 earnings, which the company confirmed are in line in its recent trading update (17th November), the shares trade on 9.6x. This falls to just 8.7x in FY17 with c.65% visibility after just two months of the financial year. We would hope that almost all of FY17 earnings will have been forward sold by the half year end mirroring the experience in FY16. The prospective yield of 5.3%, twice covered by earnings and underpinned by a strong balance sheet, remains attractive.