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Nordea released this morning its numbers for Q4 20. Numbers and quality of communication were better than those of its peers, SHB and Swedbank. Net interest income was indeed above expectations, while management’s communication on capital distribution gave investors more clarity. Nordea will indeed pay a €0.07 dividend (in line with the ECB’s recommendation) but will ask at the AGM to vote on a total €0.79 dividend, to pay a €0.72 dividend, once ECB’s (strong) recommendations are lifted. CET1 ra
Companies: Nordea Bank Abp
We expect a EUR 0.18 EPS for Q4, with NDA steadily showing slow but clear improvement on the earnings side. Compared to peers profitability remains at the low end however, which is why we stick to Hold for now. We note that with an extremely robust balance sheet we see a lot of dividend potential over the next two years once restrictions are lifted, which should also limit the downside risk here. Nordea reports on February 4th.
Nordea reported Q3 figures on Friday, and it continues to show signs of improvement. Q3 in isolation delivered a beat on most lines in the P&L and a >10% ROE, and importantly, if we look at rolling 12-month figures, Nordea has now delivered three sequential quarters of both revenue growth and growth in PBLL. With prospects of lower losses as well this is beginning to look like it might be a case again soon. We stick to Hold for now, but raise our TP to SEK 75 (72)
Nordea’s Q320 figures were better than expected across-the-board as revenues and net interest income were above expectations while both total expenses and loans were below expectations. Management reiterated its guidance for FY20 regarding loan losses (in the area of €1bn) and total expenses (below €4,7bn).
The CET1 ratio at 16.4% was 60 bps higher QoQ and well above the 10.2% capital requirements (management buffer of about 150bps).
Companies: NDA 0N4T NDA NDA NDAN NBNKF NDB 04Q
Revenues, costs and loan losses all ahead. EPS EUR 0.21, ROE 10.1%
Op. profit 12% ahead of cons, EPS 22% ahead as NDA reports net reversals
CET 1 ratio 16.4%, management buffer 640bps. Overall solid from NDA
With soft performance in recent days share should outperform today
We expect Q3 to show underlying an improvement in revenues as NDA continues to improve its growth momentum, which combined with loan losses coming down should result in EPS improvement. Our 20-22e estimates are mostly unchanged and with our expected ROE we think valuation remains mostly fair. We do however see potential upside in a very strong capital position if regulators open up for dividends again. We reiterate Hold and SEK 72 TP.
Nordea reported a Q2 EPS of EUR 0.06 as a decent quarter on both revenues and costs was marred by a EUR 698m loan loss provision. Looking closer at the loan losses NDA seems to have thrown in the kitchen sink here and set itself up for a more normalized level in H2/20. As such we see ROE improving in the coming quarters, but still at a level where we think medium-term upside remains limited. We reiterate Hold and stick with our SEK 72 target price.
NDA reports Q2 EPS of EUR 0.06 vs ARCe EUR 0.12 and cons EUR 0.10
PBLL 12%/9% ahead of ARCe/Cons, but Q2 provisions well above expected
FY20 guiding in losses is a bit better than current consensus however
EPS miss, but sets up better H2/20. Expect flat/slight negative reaction
Unlike peers NDA will update its ECL models with new macro assumptions in Q2, which should trigger higher IFRS 9 provisions. We remain a bit below consensus on losses however as we believe NDA has a decent allowance as it is. We only make minor tweaks to our estimates in this update and model a EUR 0.12 EPS for Q2 and EUR 0.54 for FY20. We leave our TP unchanged at SEK 72 (8% upside) but downgrade to Hold (Buy).
NDA delivered a strong report given the circumstances, though it left some continued uncertainty on loan losses as updated macroeconomic assumptions will only be fully implemented in the ECL model in Q2. Core revenues came in better than expected and for now revenue growth continues to outpace cost growth. Our EPS comes up 5%/4%/5% for ’20/’21/’22 on the back of the report we reiterate our Buy recommendation with a SEK 72 (70) TP.
Nordea released this morning its numbers for Q1 20. In line with Swedbank’s numbers, it showed higher than expected core revenues (NII and fees/commissions) offset by a sluggish trading income (market effect).
Loan losses were well below expectations but the (ex) Swedish bank has discounted the impact of COVID-19 within IFRS9 accounting to a very limited extent (expect it therefore to increase sharply during Q2 20).
THe CET1 ratio was negatively impacted due to an increase in market risks.
Q1 EPS EUR 0.11, 22%/49% above ARC/Cons at EUR 0.09/EUR 0.08
Core revenues better than expected, loan loss provisions lower
Still uncertainty ahead, but strong report given the circumstances
We expect share to trade higher given a high quality earnings beat
Our EPS for 2020/2021 come down 27%/18% on the back of a 5% reduction in revenue estimates and higher expected loan losses. NDA has a well diversified lending book both in terms of sectors and geography and should also benefit somewhat from de-risking in recent years. Estimate uncertainty is however very high at the moment, with the outcome dependant on how long the current situation persists. We reiterate Buy, but lower our 12m TP to SEK 70 (90).
NDA delivered a solid report in Q4 as we saw improvement on both the revenue and cost trends. Though the improvements are incremental and so far small, it helps to de-risk the turnaround case in our view. Our estimates for 2020/2021 come up 3% in this report and with the solid balance sheet we also think shareholder distributions could increase which adds support to the share. We reiterate Buy and lift our target price to SEK 90 (82).
Nordea released its numbers for Q419 this morning. Gross operating income was roughly 1.6% below expectations due to lower volatile other and trading income. Adjusted for these items, it was indeed some 6 % above consensus forecasts. Core revenues (NII and fees/commissions) were above expectations whereas expenses were well under control (-2.4% below expectations).
CET1 ratio at 16.3% was 90bps higher QoQ and 70bps above consensus expectations (decrease in RWA).
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In our last review of Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) in July, Attractive yield despite modest dividend increase, we drew attention to the dividend increase from what is comfortably the highest yielding fund in the AIC Asia Pacific Equity Income sector. It was pleasing to see that in the company’s published full year results to the end of August, the dividends paid by the company were covered and that over £1m was added to the revenue reserves over this period. In this note we examine the drive
Companies: Henderson Far East Income LTD GBP
Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) post-pandemic recovery in new lettings paused in H123, as occupiers adopted a cautious ‘wait and see’ approach, although rents increased and the strong ‘return to the office’ supports RGL’s expectation that leasing will accelerate. With DPS lowered to match reduced income prospects, the shares have fallen sharply, maintaining a sector-high dividend yield. Including asset sales focused on low-income properties, our forecasts show the rebased dividend to be fully covered an
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
Companies: NewRiver REIT plc
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Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on European Opportunities Trust (EOT). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.
Companies: European Opportunities Trust PLC GBP
Princess Private Equity Holding (PEY) posted a year-to-date NAV total return (TR) to end-October 2023 of 4.9%, 2.4% of which was from Q323. PEY’s performance continues to be assisted by portfolio earnings, with last-twelve-month (LTM) revenue and EBITDA growth to end-September 2023 of 16% and 15%, respectively, and sustained healthy average EBITDA margin of 24%. PEY’s balance sheet remains firm with c €134m in undrawn credit facility and €3m in cash, further assisted by the Civica sale proceeds
Companies: Princess Private Equity Holding Limited
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Impact Healthcare REIT’s Q323 total return was 2.6%, or 8.5% over the first nine months of the year (9M23). With rent cover continuing to strengthen, rent collection back to 100% and 98% of drawn debt fixed or hedged, the company is well on track to meet its FY23 DPS target of 6.77p (+3.5%), fully covered by adjusted ‘cash’ earnings, with a yield of 8.6%.
Companies: Impact Healthcare REIT PLC
£23.3bn in enterprise value has been returned to AIM technology shareholders over the past six years in the form of 51 public to private takeouts, including 10 in 2023 alone with the takeovers of Smoove* and Tribal announced in early October. With UK valuations appearing cheap and looking more attractive to potential acquirers, we take a moment to reflect on the trends of corporate and private equity bidders targeting AIM-listed technology companies going back to 2017, through the uncertainties
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4th December 2023
Status of this Note and Disclaimer
This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje
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BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.
Companies: BSF Enterprise PLC
Netfonds reported solid Q3 figures with further sequential improvements. As stock markets are close to all-time highs and Q4 was historically the strongest quarter, the FY23 guidance is in reach.
Companies: Netfonds AG
The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the share price of property companies, with 31% wiped off the value of their total market capitalisation during the first quarter of 2020.
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