The complacent years for retail investors are over: uncertainty is back in capital markets. We adjust our forecasts to the new reality, cutting client trading activity in equities and cryptos while reflecting further rises in US yields (an offsetting factor), resulting in 2022/2023e EPS cuts of 3%/11%. However, given its diversified revenue mix, high USD deposit base and intact client growth trends in an attractive niche, we see Swissquote as well positioned to cope with the current environment and still expect 9% EPS CAGR to 2024. Our new valuation range is CHF170-CHF205. The positives: Client growth intact, rates on the rise and revenues well diversified 1) Our channel checks indicate intact client growth rates in H1 2022, which is positive 2) We expect the company to strongly benefit from rising US rates as 28% of its total deposit base is USD-denominated and highly liquid: We calculate a 25bps rate hike to increase pre-tax profit by 3%, helping to stabilize revenues. 3) 46% FX related revenues are a clear plus in a risk-adverse trading environment with crypto currencies and equities facing value declines and lower investor appetite. Challenges ahead: Crypto and securities trading - getting worse before getting better We expect trading-related commission income generated with risk assets to come under pressure: Crypto trading revenues will be down as: 1) Swissquote''s customers acting as investors rather than volatility-induced traders; 2) the environment for the new staking service is adverse; and 3) its crypto exchange will not contribute before Q4 22. Securities trading revenues: We cut our 2022 trading activity forecast to 23% below 2021 levels given a weak trading environment in Q2. A drop to 2019 levels would result in 14%/8% lower 2022/23 EPS. New valuation range: CHF170-205 - safer investment in the DACH brokerage market Post EPS cuts, Swissquote is trading at 9.6x/9.2x 2022/2023 EPS, ~35% below its historical average, a...