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Like other power generators, Acciona suffered from lower power prices and a lower generation of its onshore farms with the load factor down by -1.5pp to 23.2% in the 9M23. However, unlike its Iberian peers, this was not offset by higher hydro generation which was 8% lower vs 2022 as it continued to suffer from scarcity.
Companies: Acciona (ANA:BME)Acciona SA (ANA:MCE)
AlphaValue
Infrastructure continues to benefit from an important backlog of works which allowed it to generate €1bn in additional revenues yoy. As expected, the Acciona Energia suffered from much lower power prices with an average achieved price for the company of €112.2/MWh vs €169.4/MWh last year, resulting in a decline in the group EBITDA and a downward revision in the guidance for the Energy business.
Acciona’s trading statement published last Thursday reflected a great start to the year with an increase in total capacity which strengthened generation by 6.7%. The global average selling price fell by c.30% but remains high compared to its pre-Energy Crisis levels which leads us to believe that there is still some downward potential, especially in view of the current trend in gas prices.
As other peers in the sector, Acciona reported higher than expected 2022 results, with revenues up by 38.1% to €11.2 bn: here was a strong contribution from the energy activities amidst the higher commodity price environment but also good progress in the infrastructures business. The group managed to leverage this performance to improve its financial profile and stabilize costs. The challenge for Acciona will focus on optimizing its €2bn investment plan and diversifying its portfolio to be less
Acciona unveiled above-expectation H1 22 figures wherein Energía embodied the growth engine, while the performance of Infrastructure was also quite satisfactory. The group was ahead of its financial targets thanks to (very) high achieved power prices, among the highest in the sector, due to its specific asset base and aggressive hedging strategy. Now, windfall taxes hang in the air.
Acciona’s FY21 results positively impressed with strong figures backed by an aggressive but realistic outlook. The group offers an increasingly valuable exposure to renewables – even more in the midst of strong energy market distortions – while its infrastructure activities serve as a solid foundation. A smart use of cash balanced between higher dividend and increasing capex enhances an already promising picture. Well done.
Nothing special but a solid first half for Acciona. EBITDA is up by 28.7%, and margins 170bp higher. Even considering a favourable base effect, the Energy business (Acciona Energía) exhibits solid generation levels. Guidance in confirmed. The proceeds from the IPO expected in July should strongly reduce the indebtedness by €1,465m. Enough to achieve its ambitious investment plan of €7.8bn by 2025? Neutral view confirmed…
Having released a set of strong figures for Q1, Acciona confirmed that the public offering of the Energy business is on track for completion during the first half of the year. This could give the Spanish group financial muscle to invest massively in renewables. By 2025, the €7.8bn growth in capex is expected to double the total capacity to 20GW. A promising but not risk-free move.
In order to accelerate its growth in renewables, the group is considering an IPO of its Energy business. According to the group, this new entity could therefore target a renewables capacity of 20GW by FY25 – compared to the 15GW by FY24 currently targeted. On top of this, the group will join forces with SSE to develop offshore wind in Iberia – a region that should be driven by strong political ambitions.
FY20 figures are roughly in line with the consensus but below our bullish model. The group was primarily impacted by the drop in its construction activities and the lower wholesale price of electricity. The potential IPO of its Energy business is confirmed, which could help to accelerate the growth of the asset base and help to reduce the group’s leverage.
The group was severely impacted by the crisis; construction and service activities were almost at a standstill and renewables were impacted by a drop in electricity prices. However, the medium-term trend seems to be improving.
Companies: Acciona SA
The infrastructure side is more impacted than expected, but renewables remain resilient. EBITDA was down by 29% to €499m. The impact of COVID-19 is estimated to be €144m. The group says it has seen the start of a recovery in recent months and expects a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We will lower our figures, but the change in the target price is not expected to be substantial. The post-COVID-19 FY20 guidance is confirmed.
EBITDA increased by 9% to €1,357m and ordinary net profit by 60% to €352m. Growth was mainly driven by the Energy activities in other regions than Spain and the solid growth in the construction subdivision. The dividend increased by 10% to €3.85. We will slightly lower our forecasted EBITDA for FY20 to get closer to the group’s guidance, but the impact on the target price is not expected to be substantial. Positive view confirmed.
Two sources of risks have been mitigated but a weak hydro output results in a somewhat negative surprise to us. Following this earnings release, we expect to keep our recommendation unchanged, albeit with a somewhat lower target price.
EBITDA disappointed us but the bottom line was especially good thanks to higher income from associated companies (up from €4m in Q1 18 to €24m in Q1 19). Following this earnings release, we will lower our EBITDA forecast by a low single-digit. This should have a similar impact on the target price and we expect to keep our Buy recommendation unchanged.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Acciona SA. We currently have 0 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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