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|06/10/2016 13:00:00||GlobeNewswire||ARYZTA AG Capital Markets Day|
|03/10/2016 06:00:00||GlobeNewswire||ARYZTA AG Annual Report and Accounts 2016|
|26/09/2016 06:00:00||GlobeNewswire||Full Year 2016 Results|
|22/09/2016 16:46:00||GlobeNewswire||Announcement by ARYZTA AG regarding new Chairman of the Board and Board Renewal|
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FY outlook is not very exciting
26 Sep 16
Aryzta reported its FY results. Sales grew organically by +0.5% (+0.8% in Q4, 3.4% for FY if we exclude the contract renewals in North America) and +1.5% on reported figures. Underlying growth by region: Europe 4.0%, North America -3.1%, ROW +6.1%. The EBITA margin contracted 100bp to 12.5% (margins were weaker in all divisions, half of the group’s margin decline relates to increased investment in brand marketing). The JV contributed positively to the results (Picard improved margins). For FY17, the group expects that the negative impact of contract renewals in the US and loss volumes in Switzerland will weigh on the results. Top-line growth is expected to be in the 1-2% range whereas the EBITA margin should be in the 11.5-12.5% range (potential decline linked to contract renewals). The underlying fully-diluted EPS is expected to achieve 358 cents (vs. 350.3cents in FY16, up. c. 2%). Free cash should be in a range of €225-275m. The proposed dividend is CHF0.5731.
Q3 brings nothing special
06 Jun 16
Aryzta released its Q3 update. Underlying growth stood at 0.9% (vs. 0.8% in Q2) with volumes down 0.3% and pricing at +1.2%. On reported figures, sales were down 2.4% (-2.3% FX and -1% net acquisitions). Underlying growth by region: Europe 3.9% (vs. 3.8% in Q2), North America -2.3% (vs. -2.4% in Q2), ROW +7.5% (vs. +5.7% in Q2).
Erratic revenue development for another 18 months
14 Mar 16
Aryzta released its H1 results. Underlying growth stood at 0.2% (+0.8% in Q2). On reported figures, sales rose by 5.5% (FX: +5%, net acquisitions +0.3%). Underlying growth by region in Q2: Europe: 3.9%, North America -2.4%, and ROW 5.6%. In H1, the EBITDA margin contracted by 30bp (-30bp for Europe, -40bp for North America and flat for the ROW). The group informed that currently the momentum in revenue growth is lagging 18-24 months prior expectations. Management expects “erratic revenue development” for another 18 months as it commissions and optimises its capacity. Consequently, consumer insourcing in Europe and contract renewals in North America will have a c. -3% impact on the top line. Consequently, the short-term guidance should be seen as less relevant.
Q1 update: Stronger European performance wiped out by ongoing weakness in North America
07 Dec 15
Aryzta released its Q1 sales update. Organic growth stood at -0.4% (negative for the fifth consecutive quarter) with FX at 5.8% and net acquisitions at 0.7%. On reported figures, sales progressed by 6.1%. By division, Europe recorded a very strong +5.5% OG driven by the bakery network. North America continues to perform poorly with a -5.6% OG (negative for the fifth consecutive quarter) due to the lapping impact of SKU rationalisation and some supply chain contract renewals. The ROW recorded a 2.2% OG (improvement vs. -4.4% in Q4). The company guides for over €200m FCF in FY16 and an underlying fully diluted EPS of 365-385 cents.
28 Sep 15
Aryzta released its FY update. Revenue stood at €3.82bn (in line with consensus) up by 12.6% for continuing business, down by 20.6% on reported figures due to the deconsolidation of Origin Enterprises. The OG from continuing operations stood at -2.2%, acquisitions & disposals were at +7.1% (Cloverhill and Pineridge in North America) whereas FX added +7.7% to revenues. OG by region: Food Europe 1%, Food North America -6.2%, Food ROW 3.3%. On a quarterly basis, the OG in Q4 was negative for all divisions: Europe -2.6%, North America -6.5% ROW-4.4%. FY EBITA stood at €514m (below consensus of €535m). The total EBITA margin was up due to the disposal of the Origin Activity but on a continuous basis it contracted by c.80bp to 13.5% (Europe -160bp, North America -30bp, ROW +10bp). The proposed dividend is CHF0.6555. The group admits that FY15 has been disappointing and the management focus is currently on OG. Aryzta guides for FY16 underlying fully-diluted EPS in the range of €3.65-3.85 and expansion of free cash generation to over €200m.
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STABER acquisition strengthens engineering IP
26 Oct 16
Carr’s Group has acquired STABER GmbH for a net consideration of €6.75m (£6.0m). This brings key IP used in the Engineering division’s remote handling products in house. We make minor adjustments to our FY18 PBT and EPS estimates and reiterate our indicative valuation of 161p.
Panmure Morning Note 19-09-2016
19 Sep 16
FIF has delivered FY16 results slightly ahead of expectations. The results attest to FIF’s evolution, over the seven years of the current executive management team’s tenure, into the UK’s leading speciality baked goods manufacturer achieved through a consistent and unrelenting focus around: (1) customer/ consumer needs; (2) new product innovation; and (3) investment in a high quality asset base to drive low cost/efficiency and support operational excellence. The shares have been very strong recently (c.10% in the last month, thereby delivering +20% outperformance relative to the wider stockmarket over the past year) and have pushed beyond our 127p TP. Combining this with the lack of an upgrade to our FY17E PBTA, the shares may therefore pause for breath. We remain however very positive on FIF given: (1) its dominant scale to capture the available long-term growth opportunities; (2) its valuation discount (c.15%) to its small/mid cap peers; and (3) the likely M&A momentum/ optionality as an added investment attraction. We therefore raise our TP to 150p (from 127p), thereby retaining our BUY.
VSA Agri Monthly: July 2015
31 Jul 15
With Australian cattle prices reaching all-time highs and the country agreeing health protocols for the export of live cattle to China, there has been a rash of recent deals in the Australian cattle sector. Has this made it more likely that MP Evans (MPE LN) will finally dispose of its 34.37% stake in the 200,000 head North Australian Pastoral Company (NAPCo)? This month saw Chinese billionaire Xingfa Ma acquire two cattle stations in Australian’s Northern Territory with a combined 40,000 head of cattle in a A$47m deal. This would suggest an adjusted read-across valuation of approximately A$80m for MPE’s NAPCo stake. Although no transaction has yet been announced, the price range for the rumoured acquisition of the 185,000-head S Kidman & Co business, mooted in April, valued MPE’s NAPCo stake on an adjusted read-across basis of up to A$70m.
VSA Agri Monthly
28 Jun 16
VSA Agri Thought for the Month It is hard to forecast the precise impact on UK farming from the recent Brexit vote but we would highlight a few areas: Subsidies: Annual subsides of c£3bn are currently paid to UK farmers. Farming Minister George Eustice has previously said that support would be maintained following a Brexit vote. Farmers will be anxious to see this happen. However, money may be saved through a cap on the maximum payout for the largest farms. Regulation: How will regulations change as we exit the EU Common Agricultural Policy? Farmers will look for regulations to be simplified and more tailored to the UK. Exports: A weaker currency should increase the attractiveness of UK farming exports, offset by any increased cost from raw material imports and any newly imposed trade tariffs. Labour: UK farming is heavily reliant on seasonal agricultural workers, many from other EU states. The UK government has previously looked to encourage the employment of more UK workers on-farm but how will things change for those bringing in workers from abroad?
VSA Agri Monthly
28 Jul 16
VSA Agri Thought for the Month Leading Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom was appointed Secretary of State for the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) this month. Perhaps one of the most unenviable jobs in the new UK government, given the importance of EU subsidies to the country’s farming sector. Agra Europe estimated last year that up to 90% of UK farms would not survive without them. Given that the EU Common Agricultural Policy has long been criticised by environmentalists and free-market proponents alike, leaving the scheme is likely to be viewed positively by many. But what comes next? We believe we are likely to see some sort of reduction of subsidies (particularly for the largest farms and most uneconomic activities) as well as greater exposure to foreign imports through additional free trade agreements. We feel a focus on technology and a push for “efficiency” will also be high on the agenda, which could provide a boost to AgTech companies developing products in this area.