Dealing with the headwinds well Swiss Re spent 2024 putting its legacy issues behind it, setting the base for a much stronger earnings outlook. However, 2025 has already bought a number of headwinds, notably the California Wildfires and the weakening of the dollar, especially vs the Swiss Franc, whilst pricing trends are also less supportive. With consensus expectations already factoring in the strong underlying earnings, and some company specific and macro headwinds remaining, we remain Neutral. We lower our target price to CHF 135 (from CHF 144), largely to reflect the FX movements. Renewals and growth - the outlook for 2025 Swiss Re delivered solid growth at the 1.1 renewal, with a small risk adjusted pricing decline. We forecast 1.4 showing a similar trend, albeit with a slightly higher rate of rate declines. 1.6 / 1.7 should be slightly better. We assume risk adjusted pricing down in the 1 - 2% range for the full year. We do note that US peers have been reporting deteriorating pricing, especially in US Primary property. However, we do not see the deterioration as sufficient to change the 2025 outlook. More macro headwinds, but embedded earnings tailwinds At the start of the year, macro movements offered reinsurers a relative tailwind. Higher US rates, USD strength and strong risk asset performance benefitted the reinsurers most in the sector. Since then, things have changed. Dollar weakness vs the strength of the Swiss Franc, in particular, is a challenge for Swiss Re. This is the main reason behind our target price reduction. Valuation limits upside Swiss Re now trades on a c.11x 2026 P/E ratio. If we normalise for our embedded headwinds in the numbers (iptiQ, uncertainty loading), this is still a 10x 2026E multiple. This is not an excessive multiple, however it does not leave much room for re-rating potential, in our view. Neutral.