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The Q323 results were disappointing for us, with a weak Europe in terms of both volume and price albeit less so in the Americas. The outlook for the Q4 shows that no real improvement can be expected before next year, while one offs will also weigh (maintenance, restructuring). We will cut our numbers (for FY23 and going into FY24) as well as our target price.
Companies: Outokumpu Oyj
AlphaValue
The Q2/H1 23 results came in as no surprise at all levels. Europe is weak, as for peers of course, but the US saves the P&L. The group is most likely to strengthen its presence there, organically or through acquisitions, which will rebalance its geographic footprint. We only fine-tune our numbers, but may lower our target price a tick, for it may look ambitious in the current context.
Outokumpu’s Q123 results came in higher than the street’s expectations and the group’s guidance. In short, the sequential uptick, expected due to seasonality, was also supported by lower costs and despite destocking by distributors. The outlook confirmed the peers’ guidance for a fairly stable Q2, which should lead to upgrades from analysts – particularly since the Ferrochrome business is expect to recover “at full speed”. Expect only some fine-tuning of our numbers as we are already above th
Despite a miss in the Q4, the FY22 results were strong. The environment is obviously less supportive than in H122 however, as was seen at the Q3 stage. The financial structure of the group is particularly healthy after two fantastic years for the sector. We will revise our numbers to account for a potentially faster cool down in the market than we had previously assumed.
The Q3 22 results remained solid, albeit lower than in Q2. Prices were down in Q3, as expected, with Europe suffering the most. The Q4 22 results will be lower, but this is hardly a surprise given the context. Given the sound financial structure, the group launched a share buy-back programme (c. 4.4% of its share capital). We will fine-tune our numbers and adjust our valuation.
The group has easily beaten its target of a higher EBITDA in Q2 vs Q1 22 This was of course based on firm prices This has enabled the company to deleverage its balance sheet further (which will continue with the disposal of Long Products) The outlook is less optimistic with lower volumes, higher energy costs and lower ferrochrome prices, despite still high prices for stainless steel We will upgrade our numbers after this release, even if the outlook looks softer
The group briefly presented its FY25 targets at today’s CMD. No big surprise in our view, with the targets within reach. Some (usual) comments on green issues, but no real surprises on that front either. Altogether, a marketing exercise that won’t change our current numbers.
A sound set of Q1 22 results and a positive (short-term) outlook. The increase in input costs is not yet being felt. The management’s tone remains cautious with respect to the Ukrainian war. We will fine-tune our numbers, potentially leading to a slightly lower target price.
Solid numbers for Q4 21, in line with consensus though. Energy costs not so much of an issue as long as the end-prices hold up well. Net debt is, of course, again decreasing (and slowly getting close to 0). A dividend of €0.15 will be proposed (vs €0). We will fine-tune our numbers after this release.
Outokumpu released a rather solid set of numbers for Q3 21. The group is catching up with peers in terms of profitability. The outlook for Q4 is quite supportive. We will revise our numbers and valuation upwards.
The top line and profit numbers were quite good in Q2 with the EBITDA margin at c.12%, to a lesser extent than peers though The volumes in Q2 were up some 20% yoy and prices +12%, while sequential growth was about +3% (volumes) The results were also boosted by high Ferrochrome prices despite FX headwinds The deleveraging is confirmed on good operating performance and despite the build-up of WC We will upgrade our numbers for the current year at least
The Q1 21 results came in above expectations The positive volume trend is expected to continue into Q2 Ferrochrome contract prices are significantly up for Q2 We will revise upwards our forecasts and valuation
FY20 numbers were in line with the guidance of last December The start of the year looks positive in volume terms The US operations have turned profitable at the EBITDA level and should help the global margin recovery We will upgrade our forecasts and target price after this release
Q2 results were rather modest in the context of the pandemic and still high imports to Europe In particular, more than half of the profits stem from the volatile Ferrochrome division The group’s (qualitative) outlook for Q3 looks rather cautious We will adjust our numbers downwards in the light of this set of results
Q1 20 was decent, with about the same pattern as in Q4 19 We like the apparent progress made in the US That said, the pandemic will weigh throughout FY20 We will cut our foreacsts once more
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Outokumpu Oyj. We currently have 0 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat
Companies: NextSource Materials Inc
Capital Access Group
Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Cavendish
Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten
Companies: Beowulf Mining PLC
Alternative Resource Capital
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril
Companies: SINTANA ENERGY
Auctus Advisors
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Shore Capital
Companies: Ferrexpo plc
Liberum
Companies: AURA OMI AAL KAV POW BMN EST SVML
SP Angel
Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
WHIreland
Companies: CLA STM GLN FXPO KAV GWMO CEY BHP THX EEE
Adriatic Metals has announced their transition from mining contractor to mining operator at Rupice. The transition is expected to continue to benefit the development and productivity rates being achieved at Rupice mine, as well as result in cost efficiencies and improved HSE standards. The company has also announced a short-term loan facility with Orion of $25m, that is drawable at the option of the company in Q3/4 this year.
Companies: Adriatic Metals Plc Shs Chess Deposit Interests Repr 1 Sh
Tamesis Partners
Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.
Companies: Alien Metals Ltd
I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Zeus Capital
Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
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