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Q2 EBITDA was up by 3% yoy. BT is well on track to meet its £3bn savings target by FY25 and we await the next phase (plan to shed 40% of staff by the end of the decade). BT is a long-term buy and hold. However two elements are likely to prevent a sharp increase in the short term: a dividend yield at 6.95% and short-term selling pressure with the possible exit from the share capital of Drahi or DT.
Companies: BT Group plc
AlphaValue
There may be short-term selling pressure on the stock with the possible exit of the capital of Drahi or DT. Infrastructure funds are, however, certainly following BT closely. Several large private equity firms could launch a joint offer for the whole company if they can first find a price to buy Drahi’s and DT’s stakes.
A decent Q1 performance despite the expected headwinds from cost-of-living pressure and cost inflation. The group is clearly a fairly safe long-term buy and hold. BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff by the end of the decade. In parallel it is further accelerating its FTTP deployment with high capex. But at the end of this phase EBITDA-capex could be multiplied by 2.5. Speculation could also again reignite as Drahi’s empire (owning 24.5% of BT) is being shaken by corruption cases.
FY23 revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations. The major news was that BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff. At the end of the decade the EBITDA could reach £11bn with the massive restructuring announced and capex could return to €3.5bn per year. EBITDA less capex could be multiplied by 2.5 and therefore also the dividend. This could value BT at 385 pence at that time. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
BT’s Q2 operational performance was pretty decent and similar to that of the Q1 with revenues up by 1% yoy and EBITDA up by 3% yoy. But pay attention to BT’s pension assets. The group has decided to input a 5.35% discount rate to somehow hide its massive pension fund deficit and to shift in time the contributions it will have to make to balance its pension accounts when inflation returns to a more normal lower level.
In Q1, the group returned to growth in terms of revenue for the first time in a long time. However, this is the objective that the management had set for 2022/23 three months ago. Cost control remains ongoing but capex continues to grow. We are now at Add (with a limited 13% upside) on the stock which has declined by 11% in the last two weeks with the rotation toward quality growth stocks at the expense of telcos.
No surprise for the Q4 as revenues still did not stabilise while the EBITDA was up by 3% thanks to BT’s transformation programmes and tight cost management. Capex was however up by a whopping 25% in 2021/22 and will remain at its peak in 2022/23. So, the group is not yet out of the woods and we see no dividend increases in the coming years… We remain at Reduce (however, with now some modest upside).
Stock up by 5% following the Q2 release. The market welcomes indeed the return of dividends and the effective deployment of BT’s ultrafast fibre network. Moreover, the group has hit its £1bn cost savings target 18 months early and now brings forward its 2024/25 target for £2bn of savings to 2023/24 with further savings in 2024/25. Here is the rub: the sales recovery is still not there. We maintain therefore our opinion at Add on the stock.
5 FTSE equities to add to your portfolio in October.
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Disappointing Q1 in terms of revenue, however offset in part by a solid EBITDA. Be cautious however that BT, like Orange, does not despair investors by postponing the stabilization of its revenues quarter after quarter. We maintain our opinion at reduce on the stock, however now with… a slight upside.
Patrick Drahi announced yesterday the acquisition through Altice of a c.12% stake in BT. We believe that BT’s stock after its 6% increase yesterday is now at its price. We also don’t believe that Drahi will increase his stake in the short term… he will have more influence on the strategy as an activist fund. He will be the gadfly to push BT to divest Sports rights and to accelerate its fibre deployment (by bringing in Infrastructure funds).
As expected, Q3 revenues and EBITDA were down by 5%, a less pronounced fall than in H1 but lockdown restrictions in Q4 are expected to impact the trading performance further with almost the entire retail estate closed in addition to all pubs and clubs. BT’s stock probably reached its nadir in November. It has recovered by c.35% since November but is still down by 20% yoy. BT must now stabilise its revenues, which won’t be possible for 2020/21 given the context.
Q2 EBITDA was slightly better than expected, down by only 3% yoy despite an expected 7% revenue decline. As a result the EBITDA outlook for 2020/21 has been slightly raised. We have a Buy on the stock which offers significant upside potential to our target price as it has not recovered since mid-March and is still down by 50% ytd. Now that the dividend has been cut, we continue to believe that BT merits a much higher share price.
Companies: BTQ BTAN BTGOF BT/A BTQ
Both Q1 revenues and EBITDA were down by 7% yoy with a COVID-19 impact a little bit more significant than the average for telcos. The group is currently investing heavily in its networks and one day this will pay off, although for the moment we are still waiting for a…revenue stabilisation and COVID-19 won’t help matters in 2020/21. We maintain, however, our Buy opinion: now the dividend has been cut, BT does not deserve such a low price.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BT Group plc. We currently have 1 research reports from 6 professional analysts.
Just 15 months after winning its first order in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communications market, Filtronic has announced a 5-year strategic partnership with SpaceX which includes an initial $19.7m (£15.8m) E-band amplifier production order for delivery in FY25. As a result, we upgrade our FY24/FY25 forecasts and lift our target price to 57.4p (was 37.5p), equivalent to 74% upside. Although this is the first time SpaceX’s Starlink has been named as a Filtronic customer, this is now the
Companies: Filtronic plc
Cavendish
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
Filtronic has signed a strategic partnership and commercial agreement with SpaceX which includes a production order worth £15.8m and warrants that could be exercised for up to 10% of existing share capital. Filtronic announced its first orders from SpaceX in January 2023, although the customer was unnamed at that point. Since then, SpaceX has placed orders totalling $43m (including yesterday’s order) for products to support the build out of its Starlink low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellat
Edison
24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: FTC AGL SRT SOU G4M AOM SUP
Hybridan
CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
SRT Marine Systems has reported a change of year end from 12-months to March 2024 to 15-months to June 2024, with revenue forecasts extended by three months for both new year ends, and an encouraging operational update. The company is concerned that government related paperwork on two existing CG projects (SEA and ME) may not be completed in time for a March invoice and risks falling into the next quarter. In one jurisdiction where there a number of new project prospects, the company must meet s
Companies: SRT Marine Systems plc
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
Filtronic’s recent investment and focus on high-performance radio frequency (RF) design and manufacturing is starting to pay off, with recent new customer wins, development contracts and volume production orders boosting the order backlog. H124 results do not reflect this recent success: revenue was essentially flat and investment in sales and engineering reduced EBITDA. However, the strong backlog gives management confidence that revenue and profit will exceed consensus estimates for FY24 and F
Companies: PHC SRT DCTA
Calnex has released a pre-close trading update for the year to March 2024, indicating that revenue would be £16.3m, c£0.7m below our forecast, partly due to the timing of orders at the end of the period. Group trading has been impacted by the well-documented, continuing challenges in the Telecoms sector which have seen delayed project timings leading to corresponding delays in customer spending. Administrative costs are being controlled and are focussed on maintaining R&D. Calnex remains confide
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
Filtronic has reported results in-line with management expectations for H1/24, and now expects to perform ahead of our forecasts for FY24E and FY25E in terms of revenue and profit. We are raising our revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E by 14.6% and 6.2% respectively, and our EBITDA forecasts by 85.2% and 28.0% respectively. The increase in expectation is driven by a strong recent acceleration in order flow, including a £7.8m order announced today. In this report we present a detailed review of
6th February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje
Companies: ROQ NCYT ALU FTC ECK ORCP BIOM PYC SPR REAT
Q1 16 revenues declined by 2.6% yoy (excluding the contact centre business SNT Deutschland which was sold in Q1). Once again growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline in size of the business market and lower revenues at iBasis. The EBITDA decreased by 4.5% yoy but this is due to temporarily higher IT-related costs in network and operations in the run-up to IT rationalisation. Note also an impairment charge related to iBasis for €45m. KPN intends to pay a regul
Companies: Royal KPN NV
Q4 2015 revenues declined by 5.9% yoy (adjusted with a tax settlement benefit of €44m in Q4 2014). Growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline of the business market size and lower revenues at iBasis. The EBITDA decreased however by only 0.7% yoy in Q4 2015 (without the tax settlement benefit in Q4 2014). These results are quite disappointing compared to the previous Q3 where revenues were down by only 2.6% yoy (vs -3.5% in H1) thanks to 3.7% growth on the co
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