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In the short-term, the ramp up phase of Factor may be a lighthouse in the storm. However, the limited growth potential within a highly-competitive industry, a mixed retention rate for a leader such as HelloFresh and the expected increased use of online grocery shopping all pose additional downside risks.
Companies: HelloFresh SE
AlphaValue
Long story short, HelloFresh maintained its FY 2023 guidance, with the results roughly in line with expectations, EXCEPT for active customers, which remained a bit of a grey area.
Despite achieving the highest ever quarterly level of Adj. EBITDA, this was not enough to offset the decrease in the number of Active Customers and the overall slowdown in consumption (the stock price is down by c.10% at mid-day). Lower marketing expenses and improved pricing power helped protect profitability. Finally, the company has revised its FY23 guidance.
Facing a high comps period, the adjusted EBITDA and FY-23 outlook have reassured the market. RTE is still in a ramp-up phase and could become the new success story of HelloFresh.
A mixed bag of FY22 figures and disappointing guidance for FY23. All hopes are now pinned on the CMD (23 March) which could potentially reassure on the mid-term.
The group performed worse than expected on its bottom-line but the market should be reassured by the number of active customers that was ultimately better than expected.
All the figures and metrics beat expectations, without which the group would probably not have reiterated its FY22 guidance. Good job.
Unsurprising annual results, but indicators for Q4 suggest that there is (still) no let-up. Reassuring for the new year with signs of a return to normal (COVID-19) and inflation. There are obvious questions about the sustainability of the post-pandemic model, but we continue to see, at least, significant short/mid-term growth drivers.
Hellofresh first disappointed with its 2022 guidance well below expectations, then, during the CMD, with the announcement of a doubling of its investment next year without improving the revenue target expected in the mid-term. A lack of coherence at first sight, but also targets that were previously unachievable without these investments, which we believe are indeed necessary. Perhaps it is even time to get in. There was a similar reaction from investors in August after a disappointment, but fol
The market liked for the Q3 sales beat and the upward revision of revenue guidance for the year. At the current 2.1x FY21 EV/sales vs. peers at 3.8x, we believe the valuation is still attractive at this time.
We initiate coverage of Hellofresh, the global leader in the growing meal-kit market, with a Buy recommendation and 24% upside.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on HelloFresh SE. We currently have 0 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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