Elementis (ELM LN) Solid Q1 update and confident outlook | Futura Medical (FUM LN) MED2002 (Eroxon®) Phase III design unveiled | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Business plans remain on track and rating offers scope for bounce | Redde (REDD LN) Positive momentum continues, forecasts unch | SDL (SDL LN) Q1 in line and vast majority of slipped deals, by value, now signed | Senior (SNR LN) Trading in line
SNR ELM FUM BWNG REDD SDL
26 Apr 18
Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) Interims contain no surprises, AST/Le Vet acq now complete | Dialight (DIA LN) Are we nearly there yet? | Eckoh (ECK LN) US secure payments win and new US partnership | GlobalData (DATA LN) Results driven by strong trading | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Appointment of CFO | Senior (SNR LN) Solid results and outlook | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) REIT placing complete, 140p+/share intrinsic value
SNR DPH DIA ECK DATA PHTM SGM
26 Feb 18
Amino Technologies (AMO LN) End-to-end contract win with DELTA | Burford Capital (BUR LN) Burford ups the pace again and signals another bond issue | Future (FUTR LN) Capital Markets Day | Liontrust Asset Management (LIO LN) Impressive net inflows, increased target price | Senior (SNR LN) Positive end to year - tax benefit | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) FY17 in line, upgraded FY18e, increased bandwidth | The PRS REIT (PRSR LN) Equity fully committed, close to securing debt Zotefoams (ZTF LN) Positive year end update, expect to remain at BUY
SNR AMO BUR BUR FUTR LIO SGM ZTF
10 Jan 18
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 13-11-2017
Be Heard (BHRD LN) Building on a successful launch | Carr’s Group (CARR LN) Healthy pickup in business momentum | Frontier Smart Technologies Group (FST LN) Further contract win with HARMAN | Senior (SNR LN) Trading in line; PBT to be slightly ahead
SNR CARR BHRD FST
13 Nov 17
N+1 Singer - Senior - Solid interims; Outlook positive
As we have said previously, after a series of disappointments, it is to be hoped that FY17 will be the bottom for the recent cycle of earnings, as Flexonics markets recover and Aerospace volumes transition towards the new commercial programmes. These results again support that view and with a generally improving outlook in the previously challenging markets, we increase our target price to 248p and remain at Hold.
31 Jul 17
N+1 Singer - Strategy - Brexit – a few thoughts in mid and small cap
Friday’s “surprise” referendum vote still has of course a very long way to play out in terms of political, geo-political and economic ramifications, though the initial movements in markets and currencies were not a surprise given the obvious shock and uncertainty. In this piece we offer a few thoughts on our coverage universe going forward, both where our views are evolving and where existing themes are reinforced. Sectors under more pressure than before include: Consumer, General Retail, Construction & Support Services. Sectors where our existing themes should prove more resilient include: Technology, Life Sciences and Healthcare and much of General Financials – though with some caveats. In most sectors interesting opportunities/angles are arising – currency and potential M&A being obvious examples in the Industrials, Tech, Heallthcare and Media sectors.
SNR WIL BOY SGM DVO DOTD BUR WKOF VEC
27 Jun 16
As we said in March, the impact of US heavy truck, off-highway and Industrial markets have been overshadowing the growing potential of the Aerospace business, now accounting for c.75% of operating profit. Today’s update confirms that the Flexonics end markets remain tough but that Aerospace is progressing as hoped. With increasing content on the major new commercial aircraft programmes, Senior is well placed to benefit over the next 5 to 10 years. A recovery in Flexonics markets would be a bonus. We continue to see strong attraction at this level (P/E of c.12.7x) and remain at Buy
21 Apr 16
High quality Aerospace manufacturer
A visit to one of Senior’s key aerospace facilities has confirmed the high quality nature of the Group’s offering in this area and highlighted the strong growth opportunities in commercial aerospace. The shorter term impact of US heavy truck, off-highway and Industrial markets has overshadowed the growing potential of the Aerospace business, which now accounts for c.75% of operating profit. With increasing content on the major new commercial aircraft programmes, Senior is well placed to benefit over the next 5 to 10 years and we remain confident in Senior’s position as a Best Idea for 2016. Buy.
08 Apr 16
EKF Diagnostics (EKF LN) Appointment of Christopher Mills as Chairman | Infrastructure India (IIP LN) Asset disposal and DLI update | Liontrust Asset Management (LIO LN) Positive flows in volatile Q4, Euro income acquisition | Minds + Machines Group (MMX LN) Transformative outsourcing contracts | Senior (SNR LN) High quality Aerospace manufacturer
SNR EKF IIP LIO MMX
08 Apr 16
Short term challenges but long term opportunity
The impact of US heavy truck, off-highway and Industrial markets are overshadowing the growing potential of the Aerospace business, which now accounts for c.75% of operating profit. With increasing content on the major new commercial aircraft programmes, Senior is well placed to benefit over the next 5 to 10 years. We reduce our target price to 264p (c.15x FY16 EPS) from 279p, but see strong attraction at this price and remain at Buy.
01 Mar 16
Devro (DVO LN) FY15 finals – all on track | Elementis (ELM LN) Strong yield support and recovery potential | GlobalData (DATA LN) Step change in earnings quality and visibility | Greggs (GRG LN) FY15 finals – positive strategic & LFL news | MySale Group (MYSL LN) Trading momentum building as self-help and growth registers | Senior (SNR LN) Short term challenges but long term opportunity | Swallowfield (SWL LN) Good execution and progress on all key pillars of strategy | Vp (VP/ LN) Trading in line, accretive acquisition to bolster FY17
SNR DVO ELM GRG MYSL BAR VP/
01 Mar 16
Aerospace progressing, Flexonics challenging
We expected difficult conditions in Flexonics, but anticipated downgrades are a bit worse than we would have hoped, c.10% in FY16 to PBT of c.£95m, with strong decline expected in heavy truck, off-highway and Industrial. This would equate to EPS of c.17.5p, and a P/E of c.12.6x, which we feel remains too cheap given the Group’s aerospace potential. The new Chief Executive is also implementing a number of initiatives to drive the Group forward which we will hear more about at the analyst presentation. We expect to remain at Buy.
29 Feb 16
Senior’s share price has been depressed in the latter part of 2015, affected by ongoing oil & gas sector woes as well as loose read across from the VW scandal and aerospace aftermarket weakness. We feel that the Group offers much stronger visibility than most of its peers thanks to its large rump of commercial aerospace business and that, overall, the outlook should remain positive into 2016. We also continue to feel that Senior could be an M&A target in an active sector, or could continue to be an accretive acquirer. Given the subdued outlook for more general industrial companies, we feel that Senior should outperform in 2016.
04 Jan 16
Dealing with pressure
Senior has been a very positive story over the last decade, although market performance this year has been weak. However, as a further step in augmenting growth, the purchase of Steico Industries appears to be a positive for the new CEO. Despite difficult trading conditions in some markets, Senior is bearing up relatively well and should benefit from rising aerospace volumes in the coming years.
20 Nov 15
Slight downgrades; complementary acquisition
Senior was one of our Q4 conviction buys in September, but has since been hit by defence related profit warnings (Roll-Royce, Meggitt, Chemring etc) and worries over general industrial/oil & gas related activity. Today’s announcement acknowledges that those areas are softer, as well as a temporary margin impact in aerospace, but the impact on forecasts is small (3%). The Steico acquisition looks like a sensible addition in terms of complementary skills and manufacturing capacity. Overall, SNR’s outlook is more predictable than most of the sector and we feel that the price has fallen too far. We await the call at 8.30am but expect to retain our 279p target price and Buy recommendation.
19 Nov 15
Strong aerospace visibility
Senior’s share price seems to be factoring in much more forecast risk than we perceive. We have slightly reduced forecasts today to reflect some headwinds, but feel that the Group offers much stronger visibility than most of its peers thanks to its large rump of commercial aerospace business. Overall, the outlook should remain positive into 2016 and we continue to feel that Senior could be an M&A target (or acquirer) in an active sector, e.g. Berkshire Hathaway’s recent acquisition of Precision Castparts. We reduce our price target to 279p (c.14x FY16 EPS) from 287p but move to BUY from Hold as we foresee relative outperformance in Q4 and into FY16.
01 Oct 15
A mixed H1 with ongoing margin pressure in the Aerospace division and oil related challenges in Flexonics. Strong growth opportunities remain with existing commercial aerospace programme rates increasing as well as new programmes commencing. We feel that Senior is a high quality business which is currently facing more headwinds than usual, including currency which will affect performance in H2. We await the views of the new Chief Exec but expect to remain at Hold for now.
27 Jul 15