Interim results – first look
Gross profits up 50%: As with all litigation funders, we focus on the gross profits as this reflects the net gain on investments. Pleasingly, GP was 50% ahead of the comparable period following settlements of cases and, mainly, developments in ongoing matters (fair value uplifts). Whilst realised GP fell from c.£2.2m to c.£1.0m, Management expects increased cash realisations in H2 given the 32 live cases that are in advanced settlement stages. Indeed, Manolete has received an additional £0.8m of settlements since the period close. As at 7 November 2019, ROIC remains at a market leading 159% (last reported 180%), which could be skewed upwards in H2 should these advanced cases settle favourably.
21 Nov 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019
Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.
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21 Oct 19
Small Cap Feast
Kaspi.kz, the largest Payments, Marketplace and Fintech Ecosystem in Kazakhstan with a leading market share in each of its key products and services. GDR offering expected Oct 2019. In the first half of 2019, the Company generated total revenue of KZT226,862m (U.S. $598m), up 34% and net income of KZT77,001m (U.S. $203m), up 54%. Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019.
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02 Oct 19
AGM statement shows strong growth
The Company has released a brief trading statement ahead of today’s AGM demonstrating the momentum in the business. The clear scale up in both cases invested into and cases settled bodes well for current year cash collection and future growth. Reiterate Buy rating and 590p price target
20 Sep 19
Excellent opportunity; Buy
The release of a short report yesterday by Muddy Waters (“MW”) against Burford has had a detrimental impact on several share prices in the sector, including Manolete. We believe there are four key reasons why the concerns surrounding Burford’s model (upon which we do not specifically comment on within this note) cannot be applied to the highly differentiated model of Manolete and thus share price weakness is unfounded.
08 Aug 19
Momentum Ahead, Upgrade to Buy
The pace and scale of new investment in cases at the close of the year and Q1’20, though, was ahead of our previous expectation. The heightened level of investment will lead to higher future cash collections and demonstrates the scalability of the model, in our view.
24 Jul 19
Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
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23 Jul 19
Q1 2019 AIM Review
2019 started well for investors with U.S. stocks rallying on the back of trade talks between China and the U.S. resuming. Sterling rebounded in Q1 2019 as expectations built the UK would avoid a “no deal” Brexit, providing a further tailwind to more internationally focused UK companies. This sentiment spread across the globe and filtered its way down into small caps.
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16 Apr 19
Quarterly Research Outlook
We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
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11 Apr 19
Litigation, litigation, litigation
Within this note we look to build upon our existing legal sector coverage of Anexo*, Gordon Dadds*, Gateley, Knights, Keystone, Rosenblatt and NAHL to include the litigation funders Burford Capital, Manolete Partners and Litigation Capital Management.
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28 Mar 19
Small Cap Feast
United Oil & Gas (UOG.L) an oil and gas exploration and development company brought to the Official List (Standard Segment) in July 2017 by way of a reverse takeover of Senterra Energy plc. No capital to be raised, expected market cap of £17m and expected 28 Feb Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Polemos, to be renamed Digitalbox plc, has agreed to acquire Digitalbox Publishing Holdings Limited for c.£10m through a share for share exchange. The acquisition constitutes a RTO. Polemos has also agreed to acquire the entire issued share capital of Mashed Productions Limited, a digital media business which owns the online satirical news website "The Daily Mash", for a maximum total consideration of up to £1.2m. Market cap on admission £12.4m, expected 28 February
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19 Feb 19