AUM and forecasts up, stellar returns, positive flows

AUM jumped £2.3bn (+12%) over Q4 of FY24 to £21.9bn on 31 Mar 24, which is 12% above our previous forecast of £19.5bn, and +14% y-o-y growth (AUM 31 Mar 23: £19.2bn). In turn, our FY24 revenue forecast increases from £188.4m to £191.6m (+5% y-o-y, FY23: £182.9m). PBT rose from £50.1m to £52.1m (+15% y-o-y, FY23: £45.2m) and basic EPS from 38.3p to 39.8p (+8% y-o-y, FY23: 36.8p). The EPS revision translates to a forward PER of just 11.5x Investment performance was the booster for AUM in Q4, add

Forecasts up on jump in performance fees

AUM grew £0.43bn or 2.2% over Q3 of FY24 (01 Oct 23 - 31 Dec 23) to £19.56bn and is now slightly above our previous £19.40bn forecast for the 31 Mar 24 FY-end. Investment performance was exceptionally strong in the quarter, contributing +£1.51bn or +7.9% of opening AUM. This was despite a currency headwind which would have depressed GBP AUM levels of USD holdings (GBP/USD +4% over Q3 from 1.22 to 1.27). Performance fee profits (net of staff allocations) jumped from the previous marked-to-market

Navigating tough markets better than most

AUM was slightly down by -0.4% to £19.1bn over H1-24 (to 30 Sep 23). This was however a relatively strong performance compared to most other asset managers. Amidst widespread sector outflows, only two from an 11-strong London-listed peer group outperformed Polar on AUM movement over H1, with some recording falls of more than 10% (see page 2). Investment performance was +£546m, net flows -£581m, and fund closures -£50m. Average AUM was up on H2-23 but down y-o-y from £20.0bn in H1-23 to £19.4bn,

Solid H1 amidst sharp sector share-price falls

AUM was slightly down (-0.4%) to £19.14bn over H1-24 (to 30 Sep 23), with a -2.9% fall in Q2 (Jul-Sep) following the +2.6% gain of Q1 (Apr-Jun). Investment performance was positive at +£546m (-£154m in Q2, and +£700m in Q1), net flows negative at -£581m (Q2: -£380m; Q1: -£201m), while fund closures reduced AUM by £50m. We reduce our FY24 & FY25 forecasts due to AUM and marked-to-market performance fees being lower than prior forecast: end-FY24 AUM f’cast is now £19.4bn (prev. £20.7bn), FY24 rev

Investment returns mean that FY24 starts well

AUM was up 3% over Q1 of FY24, from £19.2bn on 31 Mar 23 to £19.7bn on 30 Jun 23. Investment returns were strong over the quarter, contributing +£700m (+4%) to AUM growth. Net flows were negative at -£201m, but the trend continues to improve from the technology sector driven outflows of calendar year 2022 (we remind readers that over FY23 to 31 Mar 23, technology strategies accounted for £1.2bn of the £1.6bn total net outflows). The closure of the Melchior European Absolute Return fund also decr

Tough FY23, outlook improving for flows & returns

In FY23 (to 31 Mar 23), market conditions created strong headwinds for asset managers, especially those with a growth equities bias like Polar. AUM declined 13% from £22.1bn to £19.2bn, with net outflows of - £1.6bn (FY22: + £0.4bn), investment performance of - £0.9bn (FY22: +£0.9bn); and fund closures of - £0.5bn. However, the story of the year was certainly not entirely negative, but mixed, with an improving picture towards year-end and also post-year-end (although we caution that economic and

AUM up 4% in strong Q4, inflows for many strategies

Polar’s final quarter of FY23 (to 31 Mar 23) was a strong one, with AUM up by £0.75bn (+4%) to £19.2bn, driven mostly by an investment performance contribution of +£1.2bn (+6% of opening AUM). Net flows of -£410m were recorded but these were almost all down to profit taking from the Global Insurance fund (-£373m) which has delivered significant outperformance. Year-end AUM has exceeded our previous forecast of £18.3bn. While the Q4 uptick in AUM doesn’t have a big impact on our FY23 financial

AUM slightly down, FY23 forecasts unchanged

AUM fell 1.6% over Q3 of FY23 (to 31 Dec 22) to £18.47bn. Over the first nine months of the FY the AUM fall totalled 16%, although this was heavily impacted by the significant sell off in technology stocks in Q1 (Apr – Jun 22). Net outflows totalled £304m during the quarter, lower than the £529m recorded in Q2 and the £316m of Q1. Market movements and investment performance contributed +£19m over the quarter (Q2: +£342m; Q1: -£2,393m). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£

Core profit margin still over 30% in brutal markets

AUM fell 15% in H1-23, from £22.1bn on 1 Apr 22 to £18.8bn on 30 Sep 22. Unsurprisingly, given the widespread sell-off in equities, investment performance accounted for -£2.1bn of the fall, with net outflows of -£0.8bn, and the closure of the Phaeacian funds in the US -£0.5bn. • Despite gloomy markets, there are multiple positive signals and signs of management confidence: • Positive net inflows were recorded in multiple funds, including Global Insurance, Biotechnology, Healthcare Blue Chip, Sm

Small AUM decline in Q2, inflows in non-tech funds

AUM fell 1.0% over Q2 of FY23 (to 30 Sep 22) to £18.77bn (-15.1% over H1). Net flows totalled -£529m during the quarter (-£845m over H1), with market movements and investment performance contributing +£342m to AUM (-£2,051 over H1). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£459 impact on AUM. Given continuing market uncertainty and outflows, our end-FY23 AUM forecast reduces to £18.3bn (previously £19.0bn). We do however highlight that because of market volatility we have not

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 14/07/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Valeura Energy has left the Main Market (Standard). What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Georgina Energy, an early-stage resource company with a strategy of actively pursuing the exploration, commercial development and monetisation of helium, hydrogen and hydrocarbon interests located in the Amadeus and Officer Basins in Northern and Western Australia intends to join AIM. Georgina Energy has two principal onshore interests. The first, the Mount W

Redde

Proposed share-for-share merger with Northgate

Record - Underlying growth and pipeline are attractive

In H124, Record posted steady management fee growth of 3% y-o-y to £19.6m as the company benefited from a higher assets under management equivalent (AUME) base. Total revenues, however, were down 3% as performance fees in H123 outweighed those earned in H124. Profit before tax was down 17% y-o-y to £6.3m as Record incurred costs related to its expansion and modernisation initiatives. In line with its progressive dividend policy, Record increased its dividend by 5% y-o-y to 2.15p per share. After

Lowland Investment Company - Is the tide turning?

Lowland Investment Company’s (LWI’s) unconstrained, multi-cap investment policy differentiates it from most peers in the AIC UK Equity Income sector. It offers investors broad market exposure, outside of the large, traditional ‘income stocks’ at a 13% discount to NAV. The underperformance of small- and mid-cap companies versus larger peers has slowed and a turnaround would be very positive for LWI. Portfolio returns are already benefiting from acquisition activity, spurred by low valuations, and

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

LIBERUM: Ramsdens Holdings: Reassuring AGM update

Investment performance drives 6% H1 AUM growth

AUM was up by £2.2bn or 6% over H1-24, reaching £39.6bn on 31 Mar 24 (30 Sep 23: £37.4bn). This is slightly above the trajectory required to meet our FY24 AUM forecast of £41.1bn (+10% annual growth), but taking a cautious approach our FY24 forecasts remain unchanged. A very strong investment performance was the growth driver in H1, contributing +£4.9bn (+13%) while net outflows were £2.7bn. We maintain our strong conviction that medium-to-long term structural factors favour Impax, but also fla

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

PCI Pal - +25% FY23 revenue growth, FY24 growth of +28% reiterated

PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following

TR Property

TRY: a unique way to capture a recovery in property valuations...

LIBERUM: AEW UK REIT: A resilient quarterly performance

LIBERUM: PensionBee: Fully funded growth

Target Healthcare REIT - DPS growth from a sustainable base

Target Healthcare REIT’s mid-year rebasing of DPS sought to establish a base for growth on a fully covered basis. With FY23 results in line with previous indications, and progress continuing, the company has increased the quarterly rate of DPS by 2% from Q124. With rent collection restored, we expect rental growth, development completions and fixed debt costs to support continued, progressive, fully covered dividend growth.

Foresight Solar Fund - Optimising capital allocation

Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL) celebrated its 10-year anniversary of listing on the London Stock Exchange with decade-high cash distributions from assets of £120.4m in its FY23 results (year end 31 December). FY23 also saw FSFL’s divestment programme come to fruition with the sale of a 50% stake in its Spanish Lorca portfolio at a 21% premium to its holding value. The proceeds of this divestment, along with free cash, were used to pay down the fund’s variable rate debt via its revolving credit faci

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Strong H1'23 results; forecasts upgraded