Investor Day 2022: long-term ambitions confirmed

ING held its Investor Day this Monday, the first one since the pandemic began. The financial targets unveiled were, for the most part, a confirmation of the previous long-term financial ambitions: 5-10% annual fee income growth, a 50-52% C/I ratio and a 12.5% CET1 ratio by 2025. Still, the group upgraded its profitability target, aiming for 12% RoE (vs 10-12%), made possible in part through higher NII, as indicated by the new 3% total income CAGR between 2022 and 2025.

Mixed Q1 on Russia provisions, targets maintained

ING realised a mixed Q1 as earnings were hit by provisions made in relation to its Russian exposure, to which net exposure declined to €4.6bn. Total income also saw a slight decline as the group’s NII suffered from a lower TLTRO impact as well as an impairment on its stake in its Thai subsidiary. The distribution policy in response to the excess capital situation looks undisturbed by the group’s heightened cost of risk, as an additional €1.25bn will be distributed through dividends and buy-backs

A positive fee surprise darkened by costs higher than expected

ING Group presented its Q4 21 earnings today. The results showed considerable growth in revenue thanks to a jump in net commission income. NII contributed only a bit despite growing volumes, with a one-off reclassification deteriorating the net interest margin. Expenses displayed slow growth but were still higher than expected and LLPs increased unexpectedly due to scenario updates. The excess capital situation strengthened as capitalisation improved. Long-term financial targets were maintained.

A glimmer of hope from net interest income

ING Group released yesterday its numbers for Q3 21. Net income was above expectations driven by a strong beat at the top line. The latter was driven by all businesses (including net interest income). The CET1 ratio at 15.8% was well above requirements (in line with the consensus) as management does not expect a material increase in RWA (Basel IV implementation) from here. We will revise upwards our EPS for ING Group but keep our Sell/Reduce recommendation (we prefer ABN Amro).

Numbers in line, capital distribution is starting

ING Group released this morning its numbers for Q2 21. The numbers were mostly in line with expectations, except for loan losses which were well below expectations. This was, however, expected given the recent publications from other global banks. Our expectations being below consensus’ forecasts, we will revise upwards our EPSs for 2021 and 2022. The CET1 ratio is at 15.7% and 15.4% under Basel IV. Management has a 12.5% CET1 ratio target and will pay therefore some dividends/SBB at the end of

Short-term disappointment, comforting in the mid to long-term

ING Group released this morning its numbers for Q1 21. Net profit was 31% above expectations, driven by lower loan losses (expected) and higher net interest income (only driven by a higher contribution from TLTRO). The underlying numbers were rather below expectations even if the investment case remains intact with a high amount of capital to be paid back to shareholders in the next quarters as well as a decreasing cost/income ratio.

All-you-can-pay dividends!

ING Group released this morning its numbers for Q4 20. These were better across-the-board. Net interest income (under pressure at ABN Amro or KBC) was above expectations, while the generous capital distribution policy (2019, 2020 and interim 2021 dividends expected to be paid at the end of 2021) supported by a high level of capital should support the share. A normalisation of the cost of risk in 2021 at 25bp (vs consensus at 40bp) should be supportive as well.

Disappointing numbers

ING Group released its Q3 20 numbers this morning. The share price is down more than 6% due to a disappointing set of results, especially at the top line and net interest income more precisely. Total expenses were also above expectations, leading to a gross operating income roughly 10% below expectations. Loan losses were the only bright spot in the end but these were mostly expected following ING Group’s European peers earnings releases.

Focus on Q320, capital is key

ING Group Q220. Adjusted (for goodwill impairment) the gross result was above expectations, again driven mostly by other income. Loan losses were above expectations (management expects lower provisioning in H2 vs H1 which would be coherent with expectations). At 15bps, the CET1 ratio was 100bps above our expectations and management will update its capital policy during Q320 (possible change in the dividend policy and buy-backs).

Cenkos: Healthcare Sector - Ward Round

Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news. Venture Life Group, GENinCode, Kromek, Alliance Pharma, Polarean Imaging, Benchmark Holdings, Ondine Biomedical, Verici Dx, Faron Pharmaceuticals, Avacta Group, Abingdon Health, Open Orphan, Belluscura, Hutchmed (China), Oxford Biodynamics

SHORE CAPITAL - H&T Group+ (HAT, House Stock, 322p)

Earnings in line, NAV ahead, caution being exercised

Urban Logistics REIT (“ULR”) has delivered a solid FY22 performance – deploying capital apace and driving strong returns through active asset management. Earnings and dividend are both in line vs SCMe. EPRA NAV is 190p (+7% vs SCMe); as yield compression came as a bonus. Caution is being exercised in deploying remaining capital, which impacts FY23e earnings only. We upgrade EPRA NAV by 14-20% incorporating some (but not all) recent yield compression. We increase our Target Price to 210p (FY23e E

FY22 – Strong Operating Result & On Track for Targets

Mercia Asset Management reported FY22 results, with a significant uplift in adj. operating profit to £8.4m, driven by strong management fee margins of >2% on stable FuM as well as strong finance income during the year. Group AuM has grown to >£1bn post period end, driven by fundraises across the Northern VCTs. The Group is well set to achieve its Mercia 20:20 Vision, with ~£27m (~46%) of its cumulative three-year PBT target delivered in year one. We increase our adj. EBITDA forecasts by 1-26% on

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 01/07/22

1 July 2022 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectives

Right Tech, Right Touch, Right Service Level

Argentex Group (“AGFX” or the “Group”) is a regulated, commercial FX specialist, offering a range of service-led and technology-enabled FX products to corporate, institutional and HNW clients. The Group’s core business has a strong growth track record and we expect a normalising market environment post-COVID to support organic growth within this. Additionally, we see attractive opportunities across its newly launched platform with a range of technology-enabled products as well as its continuing

Auctus on Friday - 01/07/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Another well delivers flow rate above expectations – The RCS-1 well was flow tested at oil rates of up 1,872 bbl/d (936 bbl/d net to Arrow) of 30 API crude from the C7B sands. The zone was tested for 33 hours at an average oil rate of 1,076 bbl/d (538 bbl/d net to Arrow) with no formation water. Production will start next week at ~1,000 bbl/d (500 bbl/d net) in order to mini

Morning Note – 6 July 2022

2H22 – Good NAV Growth & Attractive Opportunities

Augmentum Fintech has delivered a strong finish to FY22, with NAV per share up 19% YoY and +9% HoH to 155.2p, driven by both investments and positive fair value changes across the majority of its portfolio companies. The 23% IRR since IPO is above the Group’s 20% Internal Target Return, demonstrating overall attractive investment performance. Post-period end The Group has invested £4.0m in new portfolio company Kenbi and the £43m proceeds from the sale of its stake in ii strengthens AUGM’s cash

LIBERUM: Real Estate Investors* - Further profitable sales set to drive capital return strategy

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Marlowe delivered an impressive set of FY22A results, with underlying organic revenue growth of 9%, Adj EBITDA margins up 240bps to 18.6%, and Adj EBITDA of £54.4m (ahead of our £50.7m forecast). We make minor updates to our FY23E forecasts (Adj Diluted EPS increases 1% to 49.6p) and release new FY24E forecasts. Given the strength of Marlowe's business model, its defensive nature (non-discretionary products and services; 85%+ recurring revenue), the group's continued positive momentum (including

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 30/06/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: Visum Technologies has joined the AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Compan

Palace Capital* - Strategy sharpened, 5% buyback commences

Further to its strategic review, Palace Capital intends to focus on becoming an ESG driven, regional office market specialist. To that end the company has announced a new £46.5m property disposal programme including its entire industrial property portfolio with the proceeds to be reinvested into the office sector. Palace Capital has also announced a buyback for up to 5% of its shares and continues to review its cost base. The outcome of the strategic review is to sharpen the focus on themes mana

Copyright Royalty Board III Decision

The final decision on CRB III (see below) on streaming revenues is positive for Songwriters, Music publishing and Hipgnosis (SONG). The decision will result in addition revenues being paid to SONG over the coming periods. We view the ruling as positive and evidence of a continuing shift in the understanding of the value of a Songwriter’s contribution to a hit record and the willingness of industry stakeholders to recognise it. YTD SONG has de-rated significantly and currently trades on a 23.8% d

Cenkos: Professional Services -- The week that was

Stocks in focus this week are Personal Group, Johnson Service Group, Capita and Mears