Resilient earnings

The third-quarter results showed resilient net interest margins and benign asset quality trends, thus enabling the management to target a more than decent 14% RoTE. The expected imminent recovery in house prices, if correct, is good news for the future evolution of the cost of risk.

Confirmed net interest margin reversal

The second quarter results confirmed that the interest rate tailwinds are behind. However, the net interest margin and the asset quality should prove more resilient than expected in 2023, making 2024 the big unknown.

UK Banks - Strong performance continues

Challenges ahead

The first-quarter results came in in line with the guidance and our expectations. However, they confirmed that, from now on, the group will have to fight two enemies at the same time: deposit migration on the one hand and an asset quality deterioration on the other.

Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Challenges, Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (04/23)

This is our first report on Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR, one of the largest UK-based retail and commercial banking service providers. Lloyds produced a strong financial performance in 2022 based on the ongoing success of the customer franchise. Its order book is healthy, but the business is nevertheless being negatively impacted by the industry's persistent worldwide supply chain problems. During the year, commercial banking balances have increased, driven by attractive corporate, institutional

Net interest margin warning

The quarterly underlying operating performance proved better than expected. However, the group’s updated guidance is, at best, in line with consensus forecasts as management expects net interest margin pressure as soon as this year.

The dark side of interest rate hikes

While the management reiterated its full-year guidance, the third quarter results confirmed that interest rate increases also have a negative side in the form of negative equity adjustments and a looming asset quality deterioration.

So far so good

The group posted a strong set of results showing faster and stronger-than-expected net interest margin expansion and no signs of a deterioration and above all anxiety on the asset quality front. It remains to be seen if the UK government will allow banks to hold on to the benefit of interest rate increases and if the UK economy proves as resilient as expected.

Upgraded guidance despite asset quality deterioration

The group posted a good set of results characterised by stronger net interest income growth, better cost control and a slower cost of risk normalisation, thus enabling the management to upgrade its full-year RoTE objective to above 11%. On the negative side, asset quality deteriorated markedly, translating into significantly reduced solvency.

Full profitability potential not visible before 2025

The fourth-quarter results were depressed by non-recurring charges. The updated business plan shows that the profitability will remain depressed by investments and legacy charges over the next three years, whereas the full profitability potential will not become visible before 2025 or 2026.

Stronger top-line resilience and provision recoveries

The bottom line largely exceeded expectations driven by the stronger top-line resilience and loan provision recoveries. Although the next quarters could continue to enjoy further provision recoveries, the expected interest rate hikes should support the top-line trajectory.

LIBERUM: Plus500: Strategic progress pays dividends

Tatton Asset Management (TAM LN) - Record net inflows

Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Ondo InsurTech FY24 Trading Update

Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.

BlackRock World Mining

BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

NextEnergy Solar Fund - Attractive Refinancing

The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.

Morning Note – 18 April 2024

Foxtons Group - FY24 underpinned by market share gains

Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilis

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

M Winkworth+ (WINK, House Stock at 163p) - Solid FY23A results, well placed to grow

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Artificial intelligence in UK cybersecurity: the human uplift 17/04/2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

AUM up 30% in FY24, record flows, forecasts raised

AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net